Summer Storms in the South

Banjo33

Line Up and Wait
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Banjo33
Flew the family down to Pensacola yesterday mid-morning for lunch and a movie, but knew going down that we would be dealing with the summer pop up thunderstorms on the way home in the afternoon. Sure enough, came out of the theater around 1500 to a torrential down pour and cells everywhere. Headed back to the FBO to turn in the rental car and start assessing the weather.

My route direct to home looked impassable due to large cells, so I was left with the decision to go east or west to work around them. Flight direct is only about 140 miles/1 hr. What you can’t see in the attached pic is the cell just north of P’cola that I was concerned would force me into the Eglin Restricted Areas to the east and the concern the line to the north would continue building east, so I elected to go northwest and try and work around it near Jackson.

Filing IFR was never considered as I like to keep the developing cells in sight visually as they can grow so quickly and it gets REALLY rough inside of even the small ones. Initially, there was a big hole in vicinity of Hattiesburg (the enroute point displayed in the pic), so that was the direction I was headed at 8500’. I chose higher to stay out of the scud and give me a better view of the CBs along the route. Sometimes lower works too as I can see the shafts of rain and avoid them (assuming very scattered storms); however, these cells were much larger and denser over the area I would be flying, so I knew navigating between them wouldn’t be an option I was comfortable with.

Abeam Mobile, Mobile approach advised me of a hole directly off my right wing that would provide a quick cut through and more direct flight home. However, visually, it was a wall of black in that direction. I have ADSB-in/out (GTX345) and the refresh rates were working well for me showing a magenta wall on the iPad in that direction. My storm scope also painted a wall of lighting in that direction. I just couldn’t see what he was seeing, so I elected to continue on course per my original plan. He actually sounded perplexed that I’d rather choose to go all the way to Jackson to get around the storms instead of direct. As I got closer to Hattiesburg, approach advised me that the R4401 was active and I’d need to remain clear. I also noted the cells were building real close to the NE corner of the R, so I adjusted course to the south.

To wrap this up, the cells were building rapidly and dissipating rapidly and the ADSB radar was keeping up well. There’s no way I would put full faith in it alone to keep my clear of the dangerous stuff in IMC in such a dynamic environment though. As part of the decision making process, it (and my storm scope) was a terrific situational awareness enhancer and let me keep my family updated of our progress along the route and for me to continue updating my plan (route, divert options, etc). ATC radar might have put me in a highly undesirable position too if I had gone with their recommendation. Eventually, at about where the NW edge of the 75 nm ring is, those storms burned out (turned to wide spread yellow/green) and I was able to cut across at 5500, and get home in nice weather. Of note, I hit a bug at 8500’ just after leveling off on departure that left a softball sized blotch of goop directly in front of my face. I never hit enough rain to wash it off. My normally 1.1 hr flight turned into 2 hrs; however, I flew about 3/4 of the route 20 kts slower due to the expectation of turbulence (never saw it, lol) from the storms.
 

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Flew the family down to Pensacola yesterday mid-morning for lunch and a movie, but knew going down that we would be dealing with the summer pop up thunderstorms on the way home in the afternoon. Sure enough, came out of the theater around 1500 to a torrential down pour and cells everywhere. Headed back to the FBO to turn in the rental car and start assessing the weather.

My route direct to home looked impassable due to large cells, so I was left with the decision to go east or west to work around them. Flight direct is only about 140 miles/1 hr. What you can’t see in the attached pic is the cell just north of P’cola that I was concerned would force me into the Eglin Restricted Areas to the east and the concern the line to the north would continue building east, so I elected to go northwest and try and work around it near Jackson.

Filing IFR was never considered as I like to keep the developing cells in sight visually as they can grow so quickly and it gets REALLY rough inside of even the small ones. Initially, there was a big hole in vicinity of Hattiesburg (the enroute point displayed in the pic), so that was the direction I was headed at 8500’. I chose higher to stay out of the scud and give me a better view of the CBs along the route. Sometimes lower works too as I can see the shafts of rain and avoid them (assuming very scattered storms); however, these cells were much larger and denser over the area I would be flying, so I knew navigating between them wouldn’t be an option I was comfortable with.

Abeam Mobile, Mobile approach advised me of a hole directly off my right wing that would provide a quick cut through and more direct flight home. However, visually, it was a wall of black in that direction. I have ADSB-in/out (GTX345) and the refresh rates were working well for me showing a magenta wall on the iPad in that direction. My storm scope also painted a wall of lighting in that direction. I just couldn’t see what he was seeing, so I elected to continue on course per my original plan. He actually sounded perplexed that I’d rather choose to go all the way to Jackson to get around the storms instead of direct. As I got closer to Hattiesburg, approach advised me that the R4401 was active and I’d need to remain clear. I also noted the cells were building real close to the NE corner of the R, so I adjusted course to the south.

To wrap this up, the cells were building rapidly and dissipating rapidly and the ADSB radar was keeping up well. There’s no way I would put full faith in it alone to keep my clear of the dangerous stuff in IMC in such a dynamic environment though. As part of the decision making process, it (and my storm scope) was a terrific situational awareness enhancer and let me keep my family updated of our progress along the route and for me to continue updating my plan (route, divert options, etc). ATC radar might have put me in a highly undesirable position too if I had gone with their recommendation. Eventually, at about where the NW edge of the 75 nm ring is, those storms burned out (turned to wide spread yellow/green) and I was able to cut across at 5500, and get home in nice weather. Of note, I hit a bug at 8500’ just after leveling off on departure that left a softball sized blotch of goop directly in front of my face. I never hit enough rain to wash it off. My normally 1.1 hr flight turned into 2 hrs; however, I flew about 3/4 of the route 20 kts slower due to the expectation of turbulence (never saw it, lol) from the storms.

Agree....when it bad file IFR....when it’s reall bad stay VFR
Glade all went well


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Agree.....when it is bad file IFR......
When really bad .Stay VFR.
Glade all went well..


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
I thought I was going to have to make a diversion on my return leg yesterday. About 30 miles out center was giving advisories of heavy to extreme precipitation extending about 40 miles that was just west of my destination. I looked on radar to see just how long of a line it was and with hardly any winds aloft, they weren’t moving much at all. Told Center I’d continue present heading and assess it further once I got a bit closer, as they appeared to begin dissipating. Not many diversion points from where I was so I was hopeful that they would clear up enough so I could get home. Fortunately they moved far enough to the north that I only experienced very light precip along my descent.

Definitely gets your attention when you see a monster wall of storms at your 12 o’clock and 30 miles. I had my diversion point ready but fortunately didn’t need to exercise it.
 
Usually ATC radar is pretty accurate and 30 sec update for digital and instantaneous for analog. However, there are times you can get storms that block some of the reflectivity on the other side of the storm. A hole for a controller might look inviting on his display but might not have near as much clearance for the 20 mile recommendation for severe stuff. One time on approach I vectored a Navajo between cells with maybe a 5 mile gap. On the other side he came back with “approach don’t vector anyone else through there. We got severe turbulence!” You try and help out but you don’t truly know what type of conditions await between those cauliflower blobs on the scope.

Good planning and adapting on your part. Pretty much the same decision making I use when flying with XM. Don’t have it for personal flying so I just listen to ATC on XCs and never get myself backed into a corner. Even with summer area stuff, I’ve had to tap out on occasion and find a place to land short of my destination. Doesn’t happen often but sometimes it’s just best to get some gas, food, update weather and then make another go at it.
 
Good flight and write up.

Flying out of my home base of Durham NC, I fly a lot of stormy days but always file IFR. On convective days my plan is generally to stay above cloud base and to stay visual but rarely legal VFR. Based on what I see I’ll give some buildups a wide berth but I’ll brush up against others and even penetrate a corner or a top, but always with the assurance that I’ll quickly return to visual conditions.

And in the end, I can always cancel and proceed VFR. But with that said, I can’t recall the last time I canceled. ATC has consistently been more than accommodating and usually helpful with deviations, often suggesting deviations that I may or may not decide to take.

I’ll never forget an early IFR flight out to Indianapolis before NEXRAD-in-the-cockpit days, when ATC told me that they were unable to assist due to workload and I was left to fend for myself in solid IMC with embedded cells. Suffice to say my flying habits, and perhaps ATC’s practices have changed since then.

Weather and ATC practices vary across the country so my experiences and strategies may be specific to where I fly. In a few days I’ll be flying to Orlando and the Keys so we’ll see once again if my approach will work for me.



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As Ryan mentioned, regarding storms dissipating, it was interesting to watch the radar and see how quickly storms would build and blow out, and then also to correlate that with what I could see visually. Could I have done it without the radar (ADSB-In)? Absolutely. But, it would have required more guesswork, poking and prodding around the cells until I found a way through, and likely more flight time....and possibly a land short/wait it out. Even then, the conditions were so dynamic that the radar picture was stale enough that I couldn’t rely on it alone either and still required some poking and prodding along the way.

One additional note alluding to the other thread discussing the practicality of ADSB. I felt much more comfortable getting closer to the cells and home base having my -In, due to the ability to check METARs and NOTAMs along the way. Instead of having to preplan a half dozen or more conservative options, I planned 2 (1 very conservative and 1 a SWAG) and continuously updated my options along the way as the conditions changed. I could afford to be more reactive to the conditions.

Not the end-all be-all, but I like the enhanced SA it affords. Not to mention, my accountant and banker (re: wife) would have been ****ED if we hadn’t have made it home yesterday, lol. That and the thought of what the animals would have done in the house having been left inside for 24 hours was sufficient motivation to try and find a way through!
 
Usually ATC radar is pretty accurate and 30 sec update for digital and instantaneous for analog.
It tends to be accurate, but they don’t have altitude. Meaning they may see a lot of precip on the scope, but it could all be below you.

I’ve had a few cases recently here on the east coast where ATC told us moderate precipitation at our twelve o’clock and recommended we divert while we were VFR above the clouds and could see for miles straight ahead.
 
It tends to be accurate, but they don’t have altitude. Meaning they may see a lot of precip on the scope, but it could all be below you.

I’ve had a few cases recently here on the east coast where ATC told us moderate precipitation at our twelve o’clock and recommended we divert while we were VFR above the clouds and could see for miles straight ahead.

Yeah if you fly a Citation. If you fly a helicopter for work, the only thing below me is fog. :D
 
True, although the recent examples all happened flying in the low to mid teens.

Sometimes they’re overly cautious and call out non convective stuff that’s no factor as well. Was on the range one night and ATC kept calling out moderate precip. I acknowledged and kept trucking through the middle of it. Finally the controller was exasperated and said “I’m calling out moderate precipitation and you just keep flying through it. Is there something I’m missing here?” I laughed and informed him that while it might very well be moderate, I still had my required 3 miles visibility. As long as I keep my mins, no reason to deviate.

ATC provides one slice of weather to a whole picture. Sometimes that slice is useful, other times not.
 
Sometimes they’re overly cautious and call out non convective stuff that’s no factor as well. Was on the range one night and ATC kept calling out moderate precip. I acknowledged and kept trucking through the middle of it. Finally the controller was exasperated and said “I’m calling out moderate precipitation and you just keep flying through it. Is there something I’m missing here?” I laughed and informed him that while it might very well be moderate, I still had my required 3 miles visibility. As long as I keep my mins, no reason to deviate.

ATC provides one slice of weather to a whole picture. Sometimes that slice is useful, other times not.

I've had them call weather that didn't exist before either. Late one night about 30 miles out from the field, they called warning me of an area of heavy precipitation between me and my destination. Even at 30 miles out, I could see the city lights, and had the airport beacon and runway lights in sight. I had the airport in sight, I don't see any precip. They kept warning me, expecting me to deviate around, but even at night I could tell there were no restrictions to visibility in any direction, just some scattered cumulus puffys above me. Finally they called and said I was entering a cell of heavy to extreme precipitation. After "popping" out the other side, they finally believed me when I said there was nothing there. Just a ghost on their radar I guess.
 
One day flying out in Fallon a couple months ago, the SUA controller became very adamant for a couple minutes about "an area of strong to severe precipitation 5 miles off your nose" or something to that effect. It was a beautiful day, literally not a single cloud in the sky. I responded that there was no convection nor were there any clouds or buildups. Right before checking off to approach freq, I heard her give the alert to several other flights in the conga line behind me headed back to the field. Not sure what they were referencing that day, or what cool trick someone thought they had come up with, but it was amusing.
 
One day flying out in Fallon a couple months ago, the SUA controller became very adamant for a couple minutes about "an area of strong to severe precipitation 5 miles off your nose" or something to that effect. It was a beautiful day, literally not a single cloud in the sky. I responded that there was no convection nor were there any clouds or buildups. Right before checking off to approach freq, I heard her give the alert to several other flights in the conga line behind me headed back to the field. Not sure what they were referencing that day, or what cool trick someone thought they had come up with, but it was amusing.

It actually rains in Nevada? :)
 
I was on a motorcycle ride across Nevada on 50, about 50 miles or so east of Fallon when a dissipating t-storm created a microburst that blew me off the road. I managed to get stopped without dumping it, but for 30 seconds it was intense. About 20 minutes later, while I was waiting it out, another microburst happened. It was really cool to actually experience it firsthand. It also reinforced that I want nothing to do with flying near thunderstorms.
 
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