Too Damn Many Crashes This Weekend

Fatal GA accidents are usually preventable and MOSTLY don't affect other pilots. It is a lot harder to control for the variable of the external driver than it is to control what usually happens to GA pilots - which is a lack of planning or a dollop of complacency.
 
Challenged said:
I guess it's not really a black and white issue, but the nobody lives forever and I flew yesterday and didn't die attitudes seem like they would be at odds with a mentality that's conducive to maximizing safety. Maybe I'm just jealous that some of you can partake in GA without any concerns about safety, it's certainly something that I think about a good bit.
Click to expand...
I said if I got to a certain age and didn't have any dependents that I wasn't going to worry about how long I lived or did not live after that. That goes for flying that goes for coming down with a disease that would empty my bank account but save my life, or any number of other things. I've reached that age and I'm not going to seek treatment if I get something and I'm not going to worry about my flying because I'm not leaving any wife or kids behind.

I'm not looking to die but I'm not worried about it either.
 
EdFred said:
I said if I got to a certain age and didn't have any dependents that I wasn't going to worry about how long I lived or did not live after that. That goes for flying that goes for coming down with a disease that would empty my bank account but save my life, or any number of other things. I've reached that age and I'm not going to seek treatment if I get something and I'm not going to worry about my flying because I'm not leaving any wife or kids behind.

I'm not looking to die but I'm not worried about it either.
Click to expand...

Absolutely fair. I mentioned above that I still have a 4 year old and a wife that are both counting on me, so i'm not there yet...but I can understand the mentality for sure.
 
Challenged said:
Absolutely fair. I mentioned above that I still have a 4 year old and a wife that are both counting on me, so i'm not there yet...but I can understand the mentality for sure.
Click to expand...

Just shop for the life insurance that doesn’t exclude aviation activities. A few million bucks can’t replace daddy completely, but it can make life without daddy a lot more comfortable. Maybe even more comfortable than with daddy! :) :) :)

Just watch out for them sabotaging the airplane while you’re not looking if you tell them there’s a policy in effect. :) :) :)
 
Challenged said:
I'd just like to see more pilots acknowledge the risk involved, I think it makes it safer for all of us. I'd be more comfortable sharing the pattern with someone who respected the risks involved with GA than someone who didn't even pause to reflect on the possibility of a mid air.
Click to expand...
Things that will likely kill you:
Weather
Running out of gas
Lack of ability to put it down when the fan does go quiet
Stupid pilot tricks.
Those are the big risks. Those are the things you can't let yourself get lazy about. Look at the accidents in the original post - what caused them?

Now, does that mean that you can afford to go heads down in the pattern to play with your gadgets? No. Does it mean that you can count on ADS-B to point out the no-electric, no-radio Cub? No. You still have to pay attention, you still have to lift that wing before you turn, you still have to take that look down the final while you are on base, you have to make accurate position reports. Yes, mid-air collisions are rare - let's keep it that way.
 
Challenged said:
From The Killing Zone: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
Click to expand...
The author of the killing zone should stick to writing and let others compute his math...his calculations have been proven false.
 
I could be miserable and safer or take a little calculated/managed risk and be happier. I choose happier.
 
But what if the statistics are wrong!? What if we all become safer pilots for no reason!
 
It seems there's two good ways to combat the high accident statistics that plague General Aviation:
  1. Ignore the statistics.
  2. Don't care about dying.
Easy
 
tawood said:
The author of the killing zone should stick to writing and let others compute his math...his calculations have been proven false.
Click to expand...

Got a reference?
 
Challenged said:
I guess it's not really a black and white issue, but the nobody lives forever and I flew yesterday and didn't die attitudes seem like they would be at odds with a mentality that's conducive to maximizing safety. Maybe I'm just jealous that some of you can partake in GA without any concerns about safety, it's certainly something that I think about a good bit.
Click to expand...
Sounds like you might be worrying about it to much.
 
Challenged said:
It seems there's two good ways to combat the high accident statistics that plague General Aviation:
  1. Ignore the statistics.
  2. Don't care about dying.
Easy
Click to expand...

There isn’t a high accident rate that plagues GA. The statistics show that GA is safer now than it’s ever been.
 
Great, carry on..there's no problem everyone. All the accidents posted at the beginning of the thread aren't an issue.
 
Challenged said:
Was being contentious and pointing out that none of the analysis I've seen seems to indicate that driving is more dangerous than GA https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2009/02/27/its-safer-than-driving-a-car-not/

At the end of the day, I just want to understand the risk inherent in GA as best as I can. I own a plane and put myself, my wife and 4 year old in it after all, and they're relying on me in my role as PIC. It's certainly a role that I take seriously, even though aviation is a very enjoyable activity for me.
Click to expand...

Whats the chance that your kids live a meaningless life and don't know the great enthusiasms, don't feel alive, that's a risk far worse than death, we all die, but many folks don't live a life that I'd consider a life
 
Last edited:
Challenged said:
Hazardous Pilot Attitude: Invulnerability
Click to expand...

I've been flying as a private pilot since 1974 and could not use the digits on one hand to count the number of pilots that I have come across that display that. You may perhaps be substituting "invulnerability" for fatalism. My sense has always been that pilots, as a cohort, are mildly fatalistic. I have no scientific data to back that up...just the observation that as a group we tend to have confidence in our ability to control the things we can and we recognize and understand there are always some aspects of flying that we will never have complete control over (like the FAA :D).
Fate is the hunter. ;)

Challenged said:
I guess it's not really a black and white issue, but the nobody lives forever and I flew yesterday and didn't die attitudes seem like they would be at odds with a mentality that's conducive to maximizing safety. Maybe I'm just jealous that some of you can partake in GA without any concerns about safety, it's certainly something that I think about a good bit.
Click to expand...

"Maximizing safety" fits in the same category as corporate slogans like "Safety is our most important job" Nonsense, writ large. If you truly want to maximize your safety you should barricade yourself in your home and never emerge. It may be the closest practical way to avoid exposing yourself to any harm.
I am in my 41st year in the oil and gas business - an industry that faces enormous risks daily, such as H2S in sour gas operations to blowouts while drilling. The companies with the lowest accident statistics in my business are the ones that are most proficient at objectively defining risks, systematically addressing them (starting with engineering them out, all the way through creating a barrier between the worker and the hazard - PPE, robotics, and so forth), invest in training to develop skills and do regular recurrent training, take a rigorously disciplined approach to the execution of every operation, do serious "annuals" and maintenance/upgrades on their equipment, do pre-flight walk arounds (tailgate safety meetings), use checklists, and host of other things, each of which has a direct analogue applicable in the aviation world.

Challenged said:
You joke, but at some point it would be too risky for me to participate. I don't know what that number is, but if the chance of dying was 50% every time I went up, I wouldn't fly.
Click to expand...

Unlike many other things in life, aviation is heavily regulated with considerable oversight. As a consequence YOU have more control over the probable outcomes than in many other lesser regulated endeavors in your life. If you are skeptical about what I just said, take a look at the comparatively low percentage of fatal GA accidents that are not pilot error. Even when the initiating event is not of the pilot's making, the subsequent lack of correct response by the pilot is so often a contributing factor in the outcome (Cirrus proved this in spades with its response to its abysmal fatal accident record circa 2010/11, and the dramatic improvement since). Think about that in the context of what I wrote about the best oil companies above. The analogues are largely under your control.

https://www.slideshare.net/southern...iationAdministrationGeneral_Aviation_Accident
 
Last edited:
Flying is about as dangerous as riding a motorcycle or bicycle. Look up the bicycle fatalities. Some days I ride my motorcycle to the airport to fly. Not even sure how I can stay alive with odds like that stacked against me.
 
As the great philosopher Jimmy Buffett said: “ I’d rather die while i’m Living than live while i’m Dead”.

And if last weekend was “too many”, what’s the sweet spot of the just the right number of accidents?

Don’t do stupid stuff, stay proficient, and take care of the plane. Then accept the residual risk and worry not.
 
Challenged said:
Let's think about this another way: imagine you were given the opportunity to make love to Kate Upton, but there was a 50% chance of dying while doing so. Would you do it? Okay, bad example
Click to expand...

That would be a lot of risk for just two minutes, prolly all I'd be good for with her. :D
 
Yeah, aviation has risks.

Any parents in the house? Around 1 in 4 accidental child deaths is motor vehicle accidents. Someone speeding through Omaha hit a car last night critically injuring 2 kids, fled the scene. I think a lot of risks are just taken for granted.
 
Last edited:
GA is inherently unsafe because you have a lot of people who only aviate on an occasional basis. Unfortunately, aviation required a tremendous amount of currency to really be safe. Oh yeah, while you're flying along in CAVU skies everything is hunky dory. But the minute something goes wrong a lack of currency can really raise its ugly head.

One of the many reasons pros are so much safer than the rest of us is they fly far more often. That kind of currency really keeps your head in the game.
 
Last edited:
Planes crash into houses, offices, and even flight simulators. You can die in a plane crash without leaving your house. If someone told you that you had to die in a plane crash, wouldn't you prefer to be in the plane rather than cowering in your house?

All human activity has risks. Most risks have an associated reward. Life consists of making risk-reward decisions, either consciously or not, until one of the risks kills you. The rewards I get from flying (convenient travel, seeing the world from above, building a skill, learning new things, having something to share with others, etc.) exceed the risks. One reason for that is that flying, compared with many other activities including driving, gives the pilot in command more control over which risks he will take on a particular flight.

Most GA crashes can be traced back to the PIC taking a risk that, in hindsight, was foolish. Some of the others can be traced back to the PIC taking a justifiable risk and losing the bet. Very few involve taking a risk that was completely out of the PIC's control. I bet my life plenty of times a day, and I am willing to accept the terms of the bets that I make with flying. I mostly make those bets with the odds in mind. Studying those who have lost their bet with flying helps to understand the odds and make better decisions about which risks are worth taking.
 
denverpilot said:
Have to factor in the fatal rate during training, also. You only got to fly missions if you survived training, and numbers on training fatals for WWII are almost as high as KIA numbers at certain training facilities.
Click to expand...

Very true Nate. Also the bomber bases were so close to each other in northern England that planes from different bases often collided while forming up with their respective flights/groups.
 
The reason that most can't agree on here is because we each have our own risk/reward priorities to balance. Mine are getting very much skewed towards the risk side. I don't care what the statistics say, personally I have had a few close calls and am having a really hard time justifying to myself why I should continue to fly even if my plane took 9 years and countless hours to build. I love flying and thought I would be spending many weekends at the airport just boring holes in the sky once I finished my plane. The issue is that I started to see what happens to people and their families when things don't go as planned and then I look at what it would do to mine. I can't help but think about what would happen to my wife and daughter were I to die doing something I justified for no reason other than because it was fun. The consequences are far beyond just financial. There are plenty of other things to do in life that could provide just as much enjoyment without nearly as much risk. To put it in perspective, all the below happened to me in the first 100 hours and I don't think my experience is completely unique:

1) 2 close family friends died when their plane crashed into the ocean while out doing some sightseeing (cause never determined)
2) 1 friend died when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) stopped running and he came up short of the runway
3) 1 friend was seriously injured when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) decided to stop producing power a few hundred feet off the departure end of the runway
4) I had a near midair when someone came blasting into the pattern behind me without listening to my radio calls or looking for me in the pattern. I never saw him (impossible since he was behind and below me) or heard him (since he didn't use the radio) until I turned final and he popped out just a few feet underneath me. There was probably less than 20' of vertical separation between us.
5) Came within a few feet of clipping a tree when taking off from an unfamiliar airport heavily loaded. Thought I had plenty of runway but did not take into account how heavy I was, how hot it was, or that the runway had an uphill slope. Totally preventable but the fact that I did not notice it before it was happening is what bothers me.

There are others but those are just the highlights. I would bet that every pilot out there that has died in their plane probably regretted it just before impact. I would also be willing to bet that everyone that ran out of gas also told themselves that they would never be that guy. It is just too easy to be complacent or think that bad things will never happen. Statistics don't really matter when it happens to you. You can do things to try and minimize those risks but alot of them just can not be avoided. If I were single with no family I would probably feel alot different as the only person I would be hurting would be me. Yes, I could die driving my car or falling off a bicycle but so far neither of those have tried to kill me and there is far less margin of error in flying than there is in any of those two or many other activities.

Keith
 
kmacht said:
The reason that most can't agree on here is because we each have our own risk/reward priorities to balance. Mine are getting very much skewed towards the risk side. I don't care what the statistics say, personally I have had a few close calls and am having a really hard time justifying to myself why I should continue to fly even if my plane took 9 years and countless hours to build. I love flying and thought I would be spending many weekends at the airport just boring holes in the sky once I finished my plane. The issue is that I started to see what happens to people and their families when things don't go as planned and then I look at what it would do to mine. I can't help but think about what would happen to my wife and daughter were I to die doing something I justified for no reason other than because it was fun. The consequences are far beyond just financial. There are plenty of other things to do in life that could provide just as much enjoyment without nearly as much risk. To put it in perspective, all the below happened to me in the first 100 hours and I don't think my experience is completely unique:

1) 2 close family friends died when their plane crashed into the ocean while out doing some sightseeing (cause never determined)
2) 1 friend died when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) stopped running and he came up short of the runway
3) 1 friend was seriously injured when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) decided to stop producing power a few hundred feet off the departure end of the runway
4) I had a near midair when someone came blasting into the pattern behind me without listening to my radio calls or looking for me in the pattern. I never saw him (impossible since he was behind and below me) or heard him (since he didn't use the radio) until I turned final and he popped out just a few feet underneath me. There was probably less than 20' of vertical separation between us.
5) Came within a few feet of clipping a tree when taking off from an unfamiliar airport heavily loaded. Thought I had plenty of runway but did not take into account how heavy I was, how hot it was, or that the runway had an uphill slope. Totally preventable but the fact that I did not notice it before it was happening is what bothers me.

There are others but those are just the highlights. I would bet that every pilot out there that has died in their plane probably regretted it just before impact. I would also be willing to bet that everyone that ran out of gas also told themselves that they would never be that guy. It is just too easy to be complacent or think that bad things will never happen. Statistics don't really matter when it happens to you. You can do things to try and minimize those risks but alot of them just can not be avoided. If I were single with no family I would probably feel alot different as the only person I would be hurting would be me. Yes, I could die driving my car or falling off a bicycle but so far neither of those have tried to kill me and there is far less margin of error in flying than there is in any of those two or many other activities.

Keith
Click to expand...

I've known people that have died boating (drinking not involved), hunting (not due to weapons discharge), playing softball (hit by a thrown ball, and hit by a batted ball), being a good samaritan (helping someone in car accident, and then getting hit themselves), being in a relationship (abusive spouse) and a number of other lower-risk activities. We are all going to die at some point. We can cower and think that death is lurking for us around every corner and jump back in terror every time an ant crosses the sidewalk in front of us. Or enjoy what we enjoy without worrying about every little thing. Because hey you could quit flying and be miserable and could be sitting at home watching TV and get hit by one of the thousands of NEO's that haven't been detected yet by NASA. I choose not to to worry about every (expletive) thing and enjoy what I can when I can.
 
kmacht said:
1) 2 close family friends died when their plane crashed into the ocean while out doing some sightseeing (cause never determined)
Click to expand...

-Keith, I am sorry for your losses. Operations over water carry added risk, which can be ameliorated by survival equipment (Flotation vests, inflatable raft). In northern climates the risk is far more serious. If your friends were at a safe altitude they'd have had time to use said survival gear before ditching. If they weren't at a safe altitude, well maneuvering low to the ground is a very common killer of pilots.

kmacht said:
2) 1 friend died when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) stopped running and he came up short of the runway
Click to expand...

-unfortunately, this is the Achille's Heel of many Ex/Ab aircraft, especially those that use automotive engines. Then again, we train for engine out emergencies. Admittedly, there are those that will lead to a bad outcome no matter what.

kmacht said:
3) 1 friend was seriously injured when the engine in his homebuilt airplane (same as mine) decided to stop producing power a few hundred feet off the departure end of the runway
Click to expand...

-did he brief his takeoff? Did he try and make the airport or did he land straight ahead? By the way, you and your pals seem to have a disproportionate number of engine out emergencies. Perhaps you should fly a different aircraft that isn't so prone to such perilous drama? I don't mean to be snarky, I've been flying a decade and a half and I haven't had and know no one who has had and engine out emergency.

kmacht said:
4) I had a near midair when someone came blasting into the pattern behind me without listening to my radio calls or looking for me in the pattern. I never saw him (impossible since he was behind and below me) or heard him (since he didn't use the radio) until I turned final and he popped out just a few feet underneath me. There was probably less than 20' of vertical separation between us.
Click to expand...

-the number of midair collisions between aircraft is astoundingly rare, most years the number is in the single digits.

kmacht said:
5) Came within a few feet of clipping a tree when taking off from an unfamiliar airport heavily loaded. Thought I had plenty of runway but did not take into account how heavy I was, how hot it was, or that the runway had an uphill slope. Totally preventable but the fact that I did not notice it before it was happening is what bothers me.
Click to expand...

As it should. An aircraft will only do what it can do. Asking it to do more is asking for trouble.

kmacht said:
There are others but those are just the highlights. I would bet that every pilot out there that has died in their plane probably regretted it just before impact. I would also be willing to bet that everyone that ran out of gas also told themselves that they would never be that guy.
Click to expand...

-perhaps, but I'll bet that everyone who has ever been conservative about fuel has landed with their reserves in the tank.

kmacht said:
It is just too easy to be complacent or think that bad things will never happen.
Click to expand...

-It is similar easy to think about what can go wrong and minimize the risk if something does.

kmacht said:
Statistics don't really matter when it happens to you. You can do things to try and minimize those risks but alot of them just can not be avoided. If I were single with no family I would probably feel alot different as the only person I would be hurting would be me. Yes, I could die driving my car or falling off a bicycle but so far neither of those have tried to kill me and there is far less margin of error in flying than there is in any of those two or many other activities.

Keith
Click to expand...

Perhaps, but if you look at aviation accidents, most of them are caused by only a very few things. Inadvertent flight into IMC is a big one. Stay out of bad wx (and have a plan if you blunder in) is a good way to avoid that. Don't fly at low altitude and hot dog, another good way to keep from getting dead as it kills lots of pilots. Another big cause of accidents is fuel starvation, keep lots of gas in the tanks and know how your fuel system works. Yeah, stuff can happen to you. You can loose your engine where there are no good landing spots (sounds a little likely for you, no offense), but that's the unusual case. Most accidents are caused by a chain of events most of which were preventable.
 
Sounds like a good number of these reports are successful off-field landings, not crashes. Still sorry for the losses.
 
I guess I'm an anomaly or things aren't quite as rare as most think. In addition to coming that close to a midair I also witnessed the immediate aftermath of one at a local airport when I was still a student pilot years ago. It was a classic high wing / low wing incident where the high wing was taking off and the low wing was landing. Nothing quite puts the risk in perspective like being the first on the scene of an accident and seeing a teenage son running across the ramp to his dads airplane that just crashed while looking at the dad and his CFI sitting dead in the cockpit.

I too thought that knowing / seeing someone that died in an airplane accident on a clear sunny day was just a rare anomaly. That is what I told my wife and also what kept me going to get my license after seeing that horrible accident. Now having my license and having seen all the other incidents I listed above I just understand how people can go flying thinking it will never happen to them because "flying is safer than driving to the airport". It only takes once. I understand people seeing and accepting the risk, just not the people that think it can't happen to them as long as they "don't do what those other pilots did".

As far as that accident rate with my homebuilt I have already decided that I will no longer fly it with the current engine and haven't in about a year. It has never faltered or given me reason to doubt it but with two factory built aircraft crashing due to engine issues plus loosing a friend to an engine issue it just isn't fun anymore. The desire to keep flying is strong so I am debating on replacing the engine with something else in order to keep flying but may just end up selling the whole thing and starting a different hobby that is more tolerant of mistakes. There aren't many other hobbies out there where a few moments of inattention or a missed minor detail can end up quickly killing you.

Keith
Keith
 
kmacht said:
There aren't many other hobbies out there where a few moments of inattention or a missed minor detail can end up quickly killing you.
Click to expand...

Shooting, competitive driving, scuba diving, motorcycles, skydiving, high-voltage vintage electronics workbench work, golfing near a thunderstorm, dating someone with a husband... LOL...

There's all sorts of hobbies that can kill you quickly.
 
kmacht said:
I guess I'm an anomaly or things aren't quite as rare as most think. In addition to coming that close to a midair I also witnessed the immediate aftermath of one at a local airport when I was still a student pilot years ago. It was a classic high wing / low wing incident where the high wing was taking off and the low wing was landing. Nothing quite puts the risk in perspective like being the first on the scene of an accident and seeing a teenage son running across the ramp to his dads airplane that just crashed while looking at the dad and his CFI sitting dead in the cockpit.

I too thought that knowing / seeing someone that died in an airplane accident on a clear sunny day was just a rare anomaly. That is what I told my wife and also what kept me going to get my license after seeing that horrible accident. Now having my license and having seen all the other incidents I listed above I just understand how people can go flying thinking it will never happen to them because "flying is safer than driving to the airport". It only takes once. I understand people seeing and accepting the risk, just not the people that think it can't happen to them as long as they "don't do what those other pilots did".

As far as that accident rate with my homebuilt I have already decided that I will no longer fly it with the current engine and haven't in about a year. It has never faltered or given me reason to doubt it but with two factory built aircraft crashing due to engine issues plus loosing a friend to an engine issue it just isn't fun anymore. The desire to keep flying is strong so I am debating on replacing the engine with something else in order to keep flying but may just end up selling the whole thing and starting a different hobby that is more tolerant of mistakes. There aren't many other hobbies out there where a few moments of inattention or a missed minor detail can end up quickly killing you.

Keith
Keith
Click to expand...

Sounds like it is time to give it up!
 
bnt83 said:
Yeah, aviation has risks.

Any parents in the house? Around 1 in 4 accidental child deaths is motor vehicle accidents. Someone speeding through Omaha hit a car last night critically injuring 2 kids, fled the scene. I think a lot of risks are just taken for granted.
Click to expand...
It's just that the average person drives a vehicle on a daily basis and don't fly in small aircraft, so they're more than comfortable accepting the risks from being on the road, because most folks don't even think about them, since it's routine. When it comes to airplanes, the average person thinks about the probability that they're going to get killed since they don't engage in the activity very often and they're uneducated when it comes to aviation. It's basically a mind game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top