Will General Aviation Survive

GA may currently be in a downward trend, but trends can reverse. If the economy improves, I suspect GA will too.

I'd like to see more of a push for partnerships and clubs. I understand that AOPA is already on board with that. If it didn't seem such a hassle, I'd like to find a partner or two for the Bo.

Regulation reductions would help, but that isn't going to happen. Government likes regulations and control, and they would be afraid of us stupid pilots not taking care of our planes if we weren't required to and that we would be using junk, untested and unsafe technology if we were allowed to.
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement.
snip
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I am afraid there is a lot of truth to your post. Even my wife says that every time she goes up she is amazed that we are "allowed" to do that.
 
FloridaPilot said:
Golf is not an easy sport to play, (Speaking from experience) And it's not easy being great either. Tiger had his chance but he chose hookers. Second best of all time is still good!
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When people ask me my why I started flying, I tell them I was terrible golfer :)
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs. If you make a mistake driving you have air bags and there are plenty of controls to keep you in check--cameras, gps tracking, cops. Even the river that I live on has tons of rangers that keep an eye on the kayakers. I remember getting chewed out for letting my kids climb a tree in the local park. We live in an increasingly regulated society where authorities make decisions for us keep us safe, and by and large we have bought into it and are willing participants. When I take people flying the most common question/reaction I get is surprise/horror that I can fly anywhere I want without flying a flight plan, people assume that we are controlled in the sky just like the rest of our/their lives are controlled. This wasn't forced on us by an outside power, this came from us. Every time we file a lawsuit where we want recompense for not being protected from the consequences of our own decisions, our countenance a lawsuit that does, a little bit of our independence dies. To sum up, the only people that fly GA are those who retain these values, and our numbers are dwindling.

I'm not sure this is good or bad, it's just different. To the extent that we retain some freedom to judge and act for ourselves, I have no question that a time traveler from 150 years ago or even 75 years ago would be shocked by how much autonomy and personal responsibility we have given up. Societies change. Enjoy the remaining freedom that we have not yet sold for safety and security!
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True

And I'll just say it, it's bad.

And how sick is that o_O

I bet lots of those folks also would say they are "pro freedom" too lol
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs. If you make a mistake driving you have air bags and there are plenty of controls to keep you in check--cameras, gps tracking, cops. Even the river that I live on has tons of rangers that keep an eye on the kayakers. I remember getting chewed out for letting my kids climb a tree in the local park. We live in an increasingly regulated society where authorities make decisions for us keep us safe, and by and large we have bought into it and are willing participants. When I take people flying the most common question/reaction I get is surprise/horror that I can fly anywhere I want without flying a flight plan, people assume that we are controlled in the sky just like the rest of our/their lives are controlled. This wasn't forced on us by an outside power, this came from us. Every time we file a lawsuit where we want recompense for not being protected from the consequences of our own decisions, our countenance a lawsuit that does, a little bit of our independence dies. To sum up, the only people that fly GA are those who retain these values, and our numbers are dwindling.

I'm not sure this is good or bad, it's just different. To the extent that we retain some freedom to judge and act for ourselves, I have no question that a time traveler from 150 years ago or even 75 years ago would be shocked by how much autonomy and personal responsibility we have given up. Societies change. Enjoy the remaining freedom that we have not yet sold for safety and security!
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I agree to a point (IMO) Safety and security is simply an illusion. Did we believe that we were "Safe" before 9/11? I do believe though even in the FBO and pilot communities they blame others as well. Personal responsibility is in fact a personal/indivdual thing.
 
James331 said:
More like just not knowing the market.

Sit on the websites for a while and you can find low time c85s for under 10k ASKING price, and we both know asking and getting prices are different.

The only C85 powered planes I've seen for under 10k were piles of dog crap.

Not trying to be rude, but your logic doesn't apply to most of the fleet (non junk planes).
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I'll be the first to admit I know little about the market, but I was referring to a fully overhauled C85, not one with low time.

It will take more than that for me to seek a safe space. :D
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs.
Click to expand...

Yes! I think this is most certainly a contributor! I often get asked by non-aviators about the things of general aviation. Often there is a healthy curiosity, but more than that a conjuring of the danger. Now, our lizard brain wants to keep us alive, so that's understandable. However, I also think some level of adventure is healthy — necessary. Otherwise we are relegated to being robotic consumer units. Hmmm....

d
 
FloridaPilot said:
I do believe though even in the FBO and pilot communities they blame others as well. Personal responsibility is in fact a personal/indivdual thing.
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I can tell you for certain that's true for some. I have defended such claims.
 
FloridaPilot said:
Okay, let me ask you this: If flying is so expensive and the interest is there why hasn't light sport taken off or even R/C airplanes? Boats are expensive too and not practical but they're everywhere here in Florida. We have to change the perception of airplanes in order for GA to grow.
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I don't think a boat is the equivalent of an airplane for many people. A boat is the destination, for everyone but the pilot, an airplane is a means to a destination. Most passengers find flying an a GA airplane about as engaging as most of us find flying on an airliner to be. Also, while it's certainly possible to spend a lot of money on a boat, you don't have to. There are nice older boats that can very comfortably carry a family and a few guests that can be had for less than $10,000, and if you have the space at home, can be stored at no cost. Insurance would be around $300 per year, and maintenance on a trailered boat is not expensive. We have a boat, everyone in my family loves it. I could spend the equivalent amount of money and rent a 20 year old 172 for 40 hours a year. I can tell you that none of my family members would care to fly with me unless we were going somewhere interesting. If all I did was to fly locally, I would be doing it alone, and generating some resentment for being gone that much and spending that much.

hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs. If you make a mistake driving you have air bags and there are plenty of controls to keep you in check--cameras, gps tracking, cops. Even the river that I live on has tons of rangers that keep an eye on the kayakers. I remember getting chewed out for letting my kids climb a tree in the local park. We live in an increasingly regulated society where authorities make decisions for us keep us safe, and by and large we have bought into it and are willing participants. When I take people flying the most common question/reaction I get is surprise/horror that I can fly anywhere I want without flying a flight plan, people assume that we are controlled in the sky just like the rest of our/their lives are controlled. This wasn't forced on us by an outside power, this came from us. Every time we file a lawsuit where we want recompense for not being protected from the consequences of our own decisions, our countenance a lawsuit that does, a little bit of our independence dies. To sum up, the only people that fly GA are those who retain these values, and our numbers are dwindling.

I'm not sure this is good or bad, it's just different. To the extent that we retain some freedom to judge and act for ourselves, I have no question that a time traveler from 150 years ago or even 75 years ago would be shocked by how much autonomy and personal responsibility we have given up. Societies change. Enjoy the remaining freedom that we have not yet sold for safety and security!
Click to expand...

There are other activities that require the same amount of self-reliance. I ride a bicycle, if I'm not on the ball, I'm dead, and a lot more quickly than I would be in an airplane. Obviously, riding a bicycle is a much simpler skill than is flying and there isn't nearly as much judgment required, but it's absolutely up to me to keep myself alive. Motorcyclists take on the same level of risk as do GA pilots and are equally reliant on themselves to stay alive.
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs. If you make a mistake driving you have air bags and there are plenty of controls to keep you in check--cameras, gps tracking, cops.
Click to expand...

Riding a motorcycle? You screw up, you can die. Flying? You screw up, you can die. Usually on the motorcycle, you aren't risking your whole family's lives by crashing, unless you have a sidecar and only one family member. So maybe a guy isn't totally risk-averse when it's just HIM, but you throw the ability to hurt many based on your crash, and it doesn't sound so good.

I don't have numbers, but are motorcycle purchases decreasing at the same rate as airplanes?
 
I think it's the amount of freedom which aviation brings that bothers the acceptingly oppressed, I mean many folks think freedom of speech should be limited and Americans should not even be "allowed" to own a firearm, knowing I have the ability to fly across the country, not asking for "permission" or even needing to talk to a soul must bother those commies like crazy.
 
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ZeroPapaGolf said:
Oh come on. You sold your airplane 8 years before the mandate, because of a $5000 (or much less as new options continue to become available) upgrade? That's ridiculous. You may have sold it for very good reason, but blaming it on a nearly decade-away mandate is BS.
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Because my 140 didn't have GPS, the ADS-B mandate would have been far more money than just $5000.

You are welcome to your opinion of my reason, regardless of how grossly ill-informed your opinion is. But I'm the one that gets to decide why I sold my airplane.
 
There's mention in this thread about the sales of new aircraft...

What about sales of used aircraft? Is that slowing a well? The printed Trade-a-plane doesn't look as big as a phone book yet, so it seems that the used inventory is cycling and the mantra "keep 'em flying' is working.

I'm unlikely to EVER buy a new airplane. I tell people that I don't trust planes that haven't been flying longer than I have (10 years). Yah, that's a joke, but it's an economic reality as well.

My retirement hangar will have two planes. My RV (aka sky motorcycle) and probably add a turbo lance when the 2020 sales begin :)
 
StevieTimes said:
Riding a motorcycle? You screw up, you can die. Flying? You screw up, you can die. Usually on the motorcycle, you aren't risking your whole family's lives by crashing, unless you have a sidecar and only one family member. So maybe a guy isn't totally risk-averse when it's just HIM, but you throw the ability to hurt many based on your crash, and it doesn't sound so good.

I don't have numbers, but are motorcycle purchases decreasing at the same rate as airplanes?
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They've been slowly recovering since the end of the Great Recession, but they are nowhere near the peak they saw in the mid 2000's : http://www.webbikeworld.com/motorcycle-news/statistics/motorcycle-sales-statistics.htm

I suspect some of this is generational, motorcycles seem to be much more popular with Boomers than with later generations. Some of that is prior exposure, Boomers fueled the purchases during the first motorcycle boom in the 70's and 80's.
 
are airplane sales following a similar curve?

both provide "freedom" and have risks that nobody else can bail you out of .
 
Judging by those a36 and lance asking prices, things must not be completely dead. I find it telling the OP is posing in front of an Apache. Those MX bills to go 130 knots would have me depressed about GA too. Lol.
 
I do not believe the hype that GA is in trouble. Not while it is impossible to find a hangar in the Austin Texas metro area without either waiting 8 years or knowing the right people.

Alternatively, someone should do a real research study on how the lack of hangar availability is affecting GA.
 
GRG55 said:
Where did you get the idea it's an either/or? I know parents who spend a lot of money on aviation and have their kids involved, including soaring. I also know parents who spend a lot of money on horses, and have their kids involved, and on sailing and have their kids involved (one of those has a daughter who is ferociously good on a race course). Don't understand this martyrdom mindset that somehow one is a "better parent". It works in many ways. Sounds like you did a wonderful job raising your kids, but that doesn't make a parent who got their kids involved in aviation, and kept spending money flying, any less of one.
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My observation on "kids" in aviation is just like "kids" in anything else. There will be a few who love it and become obsessed. There will be a few who will allow their parents to push them into the activity, and they will do so to please the parent. And there will be the vast majority who would prefer doing anything OTHER than sitting in the back of a Cherokee, flying AWAY from their friends to go hang out at some airport with a bunch of old grey haired guys telling stories and eating $100 hamburgers.

My approach with kids, and non-flying adults has always been it has to be about the DESTINATION as the journey is really quite boring.
 
ZeroPapaGolf said:
Oh come on. You sold your airplane 8 years before the mandate, because of a $5000 (or much less as new options continue to become available) upgrade? That's ridiculous. You may have sold it for very good reason, but blaming it on a nearly decade-away mandate is BS.
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I can't imagine any planes that are $25k 172's and up (in value) don't get the money thrown at them for ADS-B, sooner or later.

Selling a plane to avoid a $3k expense in 4 years does not hold water.
 
Right now ADSB is more like a 5k expense with antennas and labor and transponder. We will mostly all get it, but there will be a lot of people who are wait and will have to be getting it after the deadline...
 
Bob Noel said:
Because my 140 didn't have GPS, the ADS-B mandate would have been far more money than just $5000.

You are welcome to your opinion of my reason, regardless of how grossly ill-informed your opinion is. But I'm the one that gets to decide why I sold my airplane.
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WAAS GPS is easily 12AMU installed and probably more.
 
Some interesting responses!

I'm in my mid-30s, own a Cherokee and am addicted to flying. I've been up three times this week. Since it's another sunny day, let's call it four times after this afternoon. So with any luck, there will be at least one GA pilot buzzing around for the next 40 years :)

I agree that costs are contributing to GA's decline, but I don't think that's the main factor. Flying has never been cheap. Where I live, in a fairly low-income area, we've got a very affordable flying club that makes it possible to fly a Cessna 150 for less than many people spend on their cell phone and cable bills every month. The club stays pretty busy even though we're not in a wealthy part of the world.

And that's why I say the cost of flying isn't the biggest problem.

The problem is that being a pilot doesn't carry the same visible status as, say, driving a BMW or living in a McMansion.

It's fascinating to drive through the affluent suburbs north of Dallas, where you see literally hundreds of thousands of people driving shiny cars and living in gigantic cookie-cutter houses. Every single one of them has the means to become a pilot if they wanted, just by spending on flying instead of mortgages and car payments.

But for them, flying doesn't carry the same utility and/or prestige of luxury houses and luxury cars. So even though they've got the money to fly, the vast majority choose to spend it elsewhere.
 
The problem with GA is there is absolutely no marketing for GA....NONE.

Literally....all AOPA/EAA would have to do is run a few commercials, do some social media advertising and people would start to become more involved with GA.

There also needs to be some more targeting marketing in the way of, "fly your own airplane for XXX.XX a month"

Basically a turn key operation.

IMO the big missing thing is some type of warranty on older planes. I see some shops do it, but they are still out of the price range.
 
midcap said:
It seems like more pilots out there the more money they would spend and everyone would eventually get a piece of the pie.
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seems and "is" ain't working out.....or it would.

And then I'd be the first to signup for my small fortune in aviation. :D

until then I'll continue to pour my retirement into my slum lording gig.
 
I don't think it's in a death spiral at all. The flight school I finished my PPL at is going gang busters. They can't get enough planes and CFI's. I see more and more people at the FBO every time I go in. Kids too, not just older people. I just recently purchased a nice little 150 after completing my PPL. From my perspective GA is starting to grow again. It's not ever going to be what it once was but I think the more we talk about it and with AOPA helping groups start up clubs, it will do just fine. Just my $0.02.
 
Bob Noel said:
Because my 140 didn't have GPS, the ADS-B mandate would have been far more money than just $5000.

You are welcome to your opinion of my reason, regardless of how grossly ill-informed your opinion is. But I'm the one that gets to decide why I sold my airplane.
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That's fine, and I don't particularly care if you sell your plane or not, but the fact that it happened 8 years before the ADSB situation would even apply tells me there's a whole lot more to the story. Hopefully the medical reform will change things to where you can get back in the air soon.
 
Our airport in small town Iowa is bustling with GA activity. Our airport has a record number of based aircraft, with a long waiting list for hangar space. All but a few of those are active aircraft as well and fly regularly. There are frequent events held at the airport to attract both aviation and non aviation people out. Our FBO runs several ground schools a year with dozens of people in each one. I know the numbers nationally don't lie, but here locally we are seeing impressive growth. How long can we ride this growth, we can only guess. Another recession and it could die off again.
 
hankrausch said:
I've read through this thread, here is another reason (I think) GA is "dying" that has not been mentioned yet:

Flying embodies virtues and attitudes that are anathema to modern culture. There is no activity you can engage in where you are more completely dependent on your judgement. There is no one to bail you out, no do-overs.
Click to expand...

Not true. There's a ton of other activities where mistakes in judgement are rather severe. Diving. Rock climbing. Mountain biking. Traveling in some foreign countries. There are many more.

The thing is, there are always only a few in our population that are willing to step out side the norm, outside their safe little bubble and take a risk. There are risks associated with GA. Hell, there are huge risks associated with airline travel and driving on the highway, but people ignore those.

For GA to survive, it'll take people like you and me to advocate for it. To show that it isn't some crazy extreme sport where the participants have a death wish.
 
FloridaPilot said:
So now we can fly to different Golf courses and spread around how bad we really are ;)
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Man how I ****ing hate golf. Never seen the point. Sure, drinking heavily and driving a golf cart around is fun and all, but I have better things to do with my time.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Right now ADSB is more like a 5k expense with antennas and labor and transponder. We will mostly all get it, but there will be a lot of people who are wait and will have to be getting it after the deadline...
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For 90% of our population, $5k is quite a lot of money.
 
TexasAviation said:
Some interesting responses!

I'm in my mid-30s, own a Cherokee and am addicted to flying. I've been up three times this week. Since it's another sunny day, let's call it four times after this afternoon. So with any luck, there will be at least one GA pilot buzzing around for the next 40 years :)

I agree that costs are contributing to GA's decline, but I don't think that's the main factor. Flying has never been cheap. Where I live, in a fairly low-income area, we've got a very affordable flying club that makes it possible to fly a Cessna 150 for less than many people spend on their cell phone and cable bills every month. The club stays pretty busy even though we're not in a wealthy part of the world.

And that's why I say the cost of flying isn't the biggest problem.

The problem is that being a pilot doesn't carry the same visible status as, say, driving a BMW or living in a McMansion.

It's fascinating to drive through the affluent suburbs north of Dallas, where you see literally hundreds of thousands of people driving shiny cars and living in gigantic cookie-cutter houses. Every single one of them has the means to become a pilot if they wanted, just by spending on flying instead of mortgages and car payments.

But for them, flying doesn't carry the same utility and/or prestige of luxury houses and luxury cars. So even though they've got the money to fly, the vast majority choose to spend it elsewhere.
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Exactly! GA doesn't have enough POSITIVE exposure. The media tends to give flying a bad name. Because people are attracted to airplane crashes because that is big news. I hear about airplane crashes in ALL 50 STATES not so with car crashes, (Which someone dies in a car crash every 15 mins). Ask yourself this question: "How come the media doesn't give the auto industry a bad name" They can't because the auto industry help fuels our economy. Not so with GA. (IMO)



UngaWunga said:
Not true. There's a ton of other activities where mistakes in judgement are rather severe. Diving. Rock climbing. Mountain biking. Traveling in some foreign countries. There are many more.

The thing is, there are always only a few in our population that are willing to step out side the norm, outside their safe little bubble and take a risk. There are risks associated with GA. Hell, there are huge risks associated with airline travel and driving on the highway, but people ignore those.

For GA to survive, it'll take people like you and me to advocate for it. To show that it isn't some crazy extreme sport where the participants have a death wish.
Click to expand...

To be honest, I wish the pilots hanging out at the FBO's were a little more "Welcoming" to the newbies too. When I'm there I feel like an outsider but I don't let it get the best of me.
 
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