What's the fuel of the future for GA?

What is the fuel of the future for GA?

  • Diesel

    Votes: 12 25.0%

  • New alternatives to 100LL

    Votes: 23 47.9%

  • Nothing, 100LL will be around forever

    Votes: 6 12.5%

  • Doesn't matter, GA will disappear for other reasons

    Votes: 7 14.6%
  • Total voters
    48
V

VA Aviator

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VA Aviator
When I first started flying in 2001, the attitude was that 100LL was around for the long haul.

I stepped away from most all aviation in 2008, and at the time, 100LL seemed to be a "growing concern" but to be honest with the economic downturn it didn't really seem to be a the top of anyone's priority list (understandable.) In the early 2000s, it seemed as if there were some ideas for replacements and from what I remember everyone either thought that diesel would lead the way or people would figure out how to use MOGAS.

I returned to aviation in 2013. Diesels seemed to be going nowhere fast, MOGAS appeared to be held in lower regard than before, but there were AVGAS alternatives in development that didn't get a lot of attention.

Three years later, nothing seems to have changed, but I've also picked up on what sounds to me like a bit of worry about what's to come of GA fuels. Curious as to what everyone thinks it will be like in say, 2026.
 
There are several 100LL alternatives in the testing phases, most through a typical costly and complex FAA program.

In addition, the GAMI guys in Ada, OK have a formulation they say is ready for prime time, well-tested and easily produced in existing refineries with routinely available feedstocks. They are credible, and I am betting on them.

Of course, a lot of the fleet, aircraft with lower-compression engines, can already run on unleaded car gas, provided the car gas is not contaminated with ethanol (which is in car gas because it's always good to add a lower-energy fluid that attracts water and degrades fuel systems to our fuels. As if.).
 
Past experience would indicate a replacement for the blue stuff, will never, ever, be available. The world is awash in oil, yet we put alcohol in our gasoline at considerable expense and environmental risk. No change in sight for me.
Dave
 
Nuclear.
Powering turbine generators to charge our a/c batteries.
(how far in the future did you mean?)
 
It wouldn't surprise me if Diesel becomes more and more prominent within GA, especially with some of the newer aircraft utilizing diesel engines. It seems like that might be the direction it's going.
 
sky-is-falling-part-1.jpg


Might tweak 100ll a little, but I don't think we're going to see GA turned upside down.
 
Given the insane improvement in electric R/C aircraft batteries and motors, I believe that electric is the future.
 
What is the fuel of the future for GA?

Same as always...all you got in your wallet. ;)
 
TylerSC said:
Given the insane improvement in electric R/C aircraft batteries and motors, I believe that electric is the future.
Click to expand...

It's not advanced nearly that far.

The latest electric ship, as seen on the news, is the size of a airliner, the speed of a C150 and only hauls one or two people.

Besides electrics don't make this beautiful music

 
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Some kinda hydrocarbon - just so much oil out there now, with new extraction techniques, and so much energy packed in it per pound. Unless a magic battery comes along, probably just diesel, 100LL, etc.
 
Batteries have two problems: low energy storage ability, and slow recharge. I can fill both tanks in my plane in ~10 minutes; I can fill the tank in my truck in 5 minutes. Planes will require larger, heavier batteries than cars--how much charge can you put in a Tesla that's down to 15% charge in ten minutes?
 
Some sort of mogas derived fuel for the 200 hp and under folks, and some sort of Jet A burning compression ignition engine for the big bore set.

Look at this graph:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgaupus1&f=a

Avgas consumption declined by 20 percent since 2010. Assuming this continues, at some point it will be a low enough volume product that it no longer is interesting to the major oil companies, and the price is going to go up. Even if one of the unleaded avgas products does go into production, if the volume gets low enough, it will be too expensive to distribute, and it will become very scarce in the marketplace.
 
Had someone asked me this question in 2006, I would have said that in 2016 the more serious operators would be transitioning over to diesels, with the more infrequent operators going to MOGAS and that AVGAS would be $10-15 per gallon. Obviously, none of that has happened.

We've been seeing diesels for a while now, but other than the people that are rebuilding old airplanes for flight schools it seems like they don't get a lot of consideration. Seems to me a lot of these engines sport a time before replacement (which I don't really understand since diesels everywhere else are frequently lauded as long lasting and bulletproof) so maybe that scares everyone away?
Ethanol has made MOGAS a challenge.
The replacement fuels seem to hold promise but anything on that front looks like it's moving at a snail's pace.
I don't think we'll see any promising developments in battery technology for some time now.

FormerHangie said:
Even if one of the unleaded avgas products does go into production, if the volume gets low enough, it will be too expensive to distribute, and it will become very scarce in the marketplace.
Click to expand...

Racing fuel is another low volume petroleum product and is readily obtainable. Of course, it's $~10+++ a gallon but there are hundreds of different formulations available and is often sold by the drum vs tanker loads. Even with reduced consumption I can't see it being a problem with the infrastructure we currently have.
 
Who cares? As long as guys like me want to
buy it somebody'll make it.
 
VA Aviator said:
Had someone asked me this question in 2006, I would have said that in 2016 the more serious operators would be transitioning over to diesels, with the more infrequent operators going to MOGAS and that AVGAS would be $10-15 per gallon. Obviously, none of that has happened.

We've been seeing diesels for a while now, but other than the people that are rebuilding old airplanes for flight schools it seems like they don't get a lot of consideration. Seems to me a lot of these engines sport a time before replacement (which I don't really understand since diesels everywhere else are frequently lauded as long lasting and bulletproof) so maybe that scares everyone away?
Ethanol has made MOGAS a challenge.
The replacement fuels seem to hold promise but anything on that front looks like it's moving at a snail's pace.
I don't think we'll see any promising developments in battery technology for some time now.



Racing fuel is another low volume petroleum product and is readily obtainable. Of course, it's $~10+++ a gallon but there are hundreds of different formulations available and is often sold by the drum vs tanker loads. Even with reduced consumption I can't see it being a problem with the infrastructure we currently have.
Click to expand...


True, but 100 octane racing gas is $11.80 per gallon, plus freight:

http://www.racefuel.com/vp-t4-racing-fuel-100-octane/

I do believe that would be sufficient motivation to switch fuel.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Nuclear.
Powering turbine generators to charge our a/c batteries.
(how far in the future did you mean?)
Click to expand...

Quite a few plants have shut down, I'm not sure if we will see it in the future only for military use.

Hank S said:
Batteries have two problems: low energy storage ability, and slow recharge. I can fill both tanks in my plane in ~10 minutes; I can fill the tank in my truck in 5 minutes. Planes will require larger, heavier batteries than cars--how much charge can you put in a Tesla that's down to 15% charge in ten minutes?
Click to expand...

What if they found a way to self charge the batteries while flying? That might be an option
 
FloridaPilot said:
Quite a few plants have shut down, I'm not sure if we will see it in the future only for military use.



What if they found a way to self charge the batteries while flying? That might be an option
Click to expand...

1) Nuclear energy is (laws of physics are not PC) many magnitudes more efficient than hydrocarbon based chemical reaction energy, I just can't see it going away. Its just out of favor right now.

2) Check out: SolarImpulse.com
 
FloridaPilot said:
Quite a few plants have shut down, I'm not sure if we will see it in the future only for military use.



What if they found a way to self charge the batteries while flying? That might be an option
Click to expand...

Pipestrel debuted a Rotax 912 hooked to a bank of batteries in a Panthera model this year in Germany.
 
FloridaPilot said:
Quite a few plants have shut down, I'm not sure if we will see it in the future only for military use.
Click to expand...

Yeah, let's wait til all the hydrocarbons are beyond economical access, and the world's population is in the double digit billions to see if nucular is still shunned.
 
FloridaPilot said:
What if they found a way to self charge the batteries while flying? That might be an option
Click to expand...

There's that pesky little Law of Conservation of Energy. Doesn't mean you can't mix technologies and use some second energy source to recharge the batteries. Just need to develop a new second energy source.

Sure, hybrid cars extract some energy from braking, but the 1000 feet or so of gentle braking in my normal landing won't supply the energy for a 300 nm flight. Hang a generator in the slipstream, not only do you slow down and yaw (the more you try to generate, the more drag you create, slowing and yawing you). Generator and solar cell may extend your range on a sunny day, but not at night, in IMC or below a solid overcast.

"More thinking need."
 
FloridaPilot said:
Quite a few plants have shut down, I'm not sure if we will see it in the future only for military use.



What if they found a way to self charge the batteries while flying? That might be an option
Click to expand...

If they figured out a way to make a perpetual motion machine, which is what self charging batteries would fall under, then we are free and clear but under the laws of physics it is not possible. That being said we are stuck with options of hydrocarbons or a variation of hydrocarbons turning a generator. Running on batteries is never going to be a viable solution unless you have a very strict set point to fly to, like a hundred mile radius and even then you would need the use of a motor for backup for when the batteries puked out or caught fire.

I see the fuel staying the same but maybe without the lead and an additive in its place.
 
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