Tesla Model 3 Announcement tonight

Status
Not open for further replies.
Or more likely it will replace at least one car in a multi-car household. This would easily meet all the needs of the "commuter car" that most households have.. Keep the minivan for the road trips. I'd gladly replace my focus with this and keep the quad cab for the road trips.

This. Electric will not replace even a majority of vehicles in the next 20 years. They're only marginally available today due to heavy tax subsidies. On their own, they don't make economic sense today....and not for a long time.
 
Last edited:
Not if you have solar panels on your roof. I guess some of you are stuck believing that e-car range will never improve over what it is now - much like people of my great-grandfather's generation that proclaimed "They'll never make a car that can go up hill".

Yep, assuming you move where there's lots of regular sunshine. Not true for many locales.
 
And going back to Tesla, are they turning a profit now or still sucking on the government teat?

Not specifically directing this at you - you think they're doing cool stuff :). But just a general comment on this often voiced sentiment:

This company that is "sucking the government teat" is selling just under 50% of their current vehicles outside of the United States.

So let's see - out of the 200'000 U.S. cap, US sales will be subsidized by $1.5b of Taxpayer money.

However, at the exact same time Tesla would have earned ~$85k x 200'000 = $17b of foreign revenue. Not only that, but the market segment that they're replacing is mostly filled with Mercedes, BMW and Audi at the same price segment, so they turned a $17b trace deficit into a $17b trade surplus, or a $34b swing.

That's only on what they would have done at the time the credit gets maxed out.

Going forward, there is no reason to think Model 3 sales would have less % exports than Model S sales, so out of let's say a 500'000 per year run, 250'000 of those vehicles will be exported. At Elon's average estimate of $42k per vehicle, that's another $10.5b per year. And once again, the main competitor in those class is low-end BMW / Mercedes / Audi, so this would turn yet another deficit into a surplus. And they still have more Model S + Model X on top of that.

So come 2023 (10 years after the Model S launch), Tesla would have taken the $1.5b and created a > $100b trade surplus out of it. Eventually this money trickles down to people and gets taxed. Even at 15% that would be $15b. That alone is a 1000% ROI on your taxpayer dollars in 10 years, but even better - the other 85% of the money goes back into the U.S. economy, to people who buy whatever it is that you are making your living from.

If you can think of a better investment that your taxpayer dollars has ever done, by all means - I'm all ears.
 
Last edited:
If you can think of a better investment that your taxpayer dollars has ever done, by all means - I'm all ears.

Maybe...

111016_solyndra_ap_328.jpg
 
I would not bet against Elon musk.

I wouldn't either. He's the epitome of slimy business operators who ride waves of popularity to engender government corruption to make him profitable.

And going back to Tesla, are they turning a profit now or still sucking on the government teat?

But in the future, it seems that Tesla wants to essentially replace oil and be the dominating market force. Why else are they investing in electric powered vehicles, batteries for home and vehicles, and solar power systems? Big oil will give way to big electron (Not catchy at all, I get it).

Not likely without massive investment in a great many more nuc plants for base loads much higher than we see today in hot climates. Crazyfornia already has the sheep trained that "rolling blackouts" and the power utilities cycling your residential AC off when they need to, is the new normal.

That or crank up a whole lot more coal plants... All EVs do is move the tailpipe.

So let's see - out of the 200'000 U.S. cap, US sales will be subsidized by $1.5b of Taxpayer money.

...

If you can think of a better investment that your taxpayer dollars has ever done, by all means - I'm all ears.

Infrastructure everyone uses. Government need not, nor should be, the primary "investor" in a business. (Goes for defense companies also, but both will fall on deaf ears in our risk-averse society that thinks socializing losses is a spiffy idea. To truly measure Tesla's success, one must account for the entire government "investment" in electric tech, and what it'll cost to regulate and crank up the nucs to feed the electric go carts. Including storage of waste.

This. Electric will not replace even a majority of vehicles in the next 20 years. They're only marginally available today due to have tax subsidies. On their own, they don't make economic sense today....and not for a long time.

This.
 
I wouldn't either. He's the epitome of slimy business operators who ride waves of popularity to engender government corruption to make him profitable.



Not likely without massive investment in a great many more nuc plants for base loads much higher than we see today in hot climates. Crazyfornia already has the sheep trained that "rolling blackouts" and the power utilities cycling your residential AC off when they need to, is the new normal.

That or crank up a whole lot more coal plants... All EVs do is move the tailpipe.



Infrastructure everyone uses. Government need not, nor should be, the primary "investor" in a business. (Goes for defense companies also, but both will fall on deaf ears in our risk-averse society that thinks socializing losses is a spiffy idea. To truly measure Tesla's success, one must account for the entire government "investment" in electric tech, and what it'll cost to regulate and crank up the nucs to feed the electric go carts. Including storage of waste.



This.
 
I wouldn't either. He's the epitome of slimy business operators who ride waves of popularity to engender government corruption to make him profitable.



Not likely without massive investment in a great many more nuc plants for base loads much higher than we see today in hot climates. Crazyfornia already has the sheep trained that "rolling blackouts" and the power utilities cycling your residential AC off when they need to, is the new normal.

That or crank up a whole lot more coal plants... All EVs do is move the tailpipe.



Infrastructure everyone uses. Government need not, nor should be, the primary "investor" in a business. (Goes for defense companies also, but both will fall on deaf ears in our risk-averse society that thinks socializing losses is a spiffy idea. To truly measure Tesla's success, one must account for the entire government "investment" in electric tech, and what it'll cost to regulate and crank up the nucs to feed the electric go carts. Including storage of waste.



This.
The " govmint" has been involved in every major tech advancement in the past one hundred years from aircraft to computers , to university grants , drug research, on and on. It's made us the most successful country on earth and especially to industry's like big oil which has been given billions thru corrupt lobbying, making something like solyndra look like small change. Musk is a winner. Nothing " slimey " about him. Just way ahead of you. Brighter. Nuc energy is not. It's on the way out
 
The " govmint" has been involved in every major tech advancement in the past one hundred years from aircraft to computers , to university grants , drug research, on and on. It's made us the most successful country on earth and especially to industry's like big oil which has been given billions thru corrupt lobbying, making something like solyndra look like small change. Musk is a winner. Nothing " slimey " about him. Just way ahead of you. Brighter. Nuc energy is not. It's on the way out

Just because you like populist rhetoric, doesn't make it any more accurate than it was when it was some other silly notion before the electric car craze.

It'll be decades before anything other than nuclear can handle the base loads we have TODAY on our power grids in overcrowded cities back east, if ever. And the idiots are breeding. That means what? Oh yeah... Bigger loads. More energy use.

Let me know when you can back your rhetoric in hard engineering numbers, Jimbo.

As it stands today, the world can't even make solar panels without massive amounts of nuclear or coal power, and has to do it by "exporting" the pollution of making them to the Asian Pacific. If you want to see some massively subsidized mega-capitalists making all sorts of environmental disasters for the future, look no further than the solar barons.

Same mentality as the oil barons, they just wrapped themselves in green tissue paper to suck in folks like yourself with no ability to add up KWh used vs where they come from.

Musk is closer to a Rockefeller than to you, but he's got you fooled. He'll just make house sized batteries in China where it only puts their population and workers at direct health risk, and is hidden by their authoritarian government.

Makes it all so easy for the westerners to believe in his greenness.

Typing on a plastic keyboard, Jimster? See anything in the room you're sitting in that didn't require petrochemicals to make, deliver, or finish? Going to rid your home of everything wrapped in plastic? Nice fruits and veggies in the kitchen? Any of them not delivered by diesel? How's the temp in the house? Nice and toasty on this early Spring night? A little natural gas or some nice coal providing that for ya? Does your Porche run on unicorn farts?

LOL. Electric isn't utopia, and it isn't possible to convert a majority of energy use to it. Not without more plants online for base load. Those are going to be nuclear or coal, take your pick. Solar isn't going to cut it, and neither is wind, they only augment. There's no storage facilities in the grid, so you're going to need something engineered to operate 24/7. The base load plants do have to be shut down for maintenance once in a while, too, you know... And utilities are pushing the bounds of being able to do that in many areas without shedding loads.

Accidents happen when you never shut down and maintain and upgrade the plant... in fact, IMHO they're not accidents at all.

Oh wait. The Porche is made of bamboo, isn't it? I forgot. No metal gears, no plastic dash, no lubricants... Haha. You just pedal it around and it's made of all renewables. I forgot. :)

Got some more energy fairy tales for us Jim? I enjoy good fantasy writing.
 
To drive a Tesla S 12k miles a year consumes maybe 4000kwh? In my case, though I don't own a Tesla, changing my lightbulbs to LED's and a couple other efficiency measures would recover a large portion of that. Don't know if the new model consumes less. And if I drive 4k miles yearly, that's a lot. If it's more than 75 or 100 miles away, that's what the plane is for.

The point is that there's a lot of untapped energy potential in efficiency, it doesn't all have to come from new power generation.
 
Jeez... an awful lot of angry Luddites in this room! The Model 3 looks to be fantastic. The tipping point is nearing where price to performance is going to sway more and more mainstream buyers to electric cars. They are the future, not because of climate change, or concerns for the environment, but because they are better cars. This 400 miles to Grandma's house thing is tiring. I don't know one single person where the Model 3 could not be used for their primary driving vehicle and never go to a gas station. If you need to go to Grandma's, you can either-
  • Take a little longer and use the charging stations.
  • Take a different vehicle.
  • Fly your airplane.
  • Take public transportation.
 
Unfortunately, I rent an apartment and have no power near my parking... so an electric car really isn't feasible for me.
 
Unfortunately, I rent an apartment and have no power near my parking... so an electric car really isn't feasible for me.

That is unfortunate. However this will change as more and more electric cars become the mainstream. With increasing demand for a charging infrastructure, the infrastructure will be built out. Eventually, charging stations will be a new key feature to attract renters to an apartment complex. It won't happen over night, but neither did the build out of gas stations and parking lots.
 
That is unfortunate. However this will change as more and more electric cars become the mainstream. With increasing demand for a charging infrastructure, the infrastructure will be built out. Eventually, charging stations will be a new key feature to attract renters to an apartment complex. It won't happen over night, but neither did the build out of gas stations and parking lots.
That is very true. Until I can justify two vehicles for myself, the pickup just happens to serve my needs better with everything taken in to account. Around here, the shopping malls have charging stations, at least! There are often a couple of vehicles using them whenever I drive by during business hours.
 
Jeez... an awful lot of angry Luddites in this room! The Model 3 looks to be fantastic. The tipping point is nearing where price to performance is going to sway more and more mainstream buyers to electric cars. They are the future, not because of climate change, or concerns for the environment, but because they are better cars. This 400 miles to Grandma's house thing is tiring. I don't know one single person where the Model 3 could not be used for their primary driving vehicle and never go to a gas station. If you need to go to Grandma's, you can either-
  • Take a little longer and use the charging stations.
  • Take a different vehicle.
  • Fly your airplane.
  • Take public transportation.

The modern car become so widespread because the concept worked very well and it could be made very cheaply. Tesla cars are excellent cars in their own right especially compared to other electric vehicles. However, their generally lower performance and higher cost compared to cars of the same cost really mean they aren't quite there yet. The battery technology is obviously still a lacking and far from having the sort of energy density of a the equivalent amount of fuel in weight. Saying so is not being a Luddite. That's just stating a fact.

The capabilities of electric power vehicles at the current time is obvious in their applications to aircraft. Look for example at the Pipistrel Panthera. The range and endurance is dramatically lower for the all-electric model than the internal combustion engine model.
 
The " govmint" has been involved in every major tech advancement in the past one hundred years from aircraft to computers , to university grants , drug research, on and on. It's made us the most successful country on earth and especially to industry's like big oil which has been given billions thru corrupt lobbying, making something like solyndra look like small change. Musk is a winner. Nothing " slimey " about him. Just way ahead of you. Brighter. Nuc energy is not. It's on the way out

Even if for developing cool stuff, I just think it's a very bad idea for government in general to give any money to any private company. Sure, people can justify giving money to a company like Tesla to make cool stuff. But then what's to stop politicians from giving money to other interests? Sure, people say to give money to Tesla because what they are doing is important. But then politicians also said to bail out the banks that screwed up because it's important. Then someone else is also going to say we need to throw money at a new fighter like the F-35 that can't beat the F-16 because it's important. And someone else is going to find an excuse to give money to big oil.

In some cases, the money develops useful stuff like the Internet for example. But in numerous other cases, it results in cronyism and wasteful spending. Giving money to any company or industry sets dangerous precedents.
 
The modern car become so widespread because the concept worked very well and it could be made very cheaply. Tesla cars are excellent cars in their own right especially compared to other electric vehicles. However, their generally lower performance and higher cost compared to cars of the same cost really mean they aren't quite there yet. The battery technology is obviously still a lacking and far from having the sort of energy density of a the equivalent amount of fuel in weight. Saying so is not being a Luddite. That's just stating a fact.

The capabilities of electric power vehicles at the current time is obvious in their applications to aircraft. Look for example at the Pipistrel Panthera. The range and endurance is dramatically lower for the all-electric model than the internal combustion engine model.

A few points- From 1886 to 1907 The automobile was an expensive rich man's toy with little practicality. There was very little infrastructure to support it and you really couldn't go very far with it. In 1908 Henry Ford unveiled to the world his Model T that he not only redesigned the car in ways to make manufacturing the car cheaper and therefore more affordable to the masses, but he also invented the modern assembly line to bring costs down further. When the Model T hit the road, there was still very poor infrastructure to support cars, but that changed very quickly as people lined up to buy Model Ts.

We are starting to see the same transformation happening today. Once travel by horse, or horse and carriage was the practical method of transportation and the infrastructure was advanced and built out to support that mode of transport. Today horses are a novelty and a pass time by and large. The old horse support infrastructure has been replaced with one to support gasoline powered cars. This change will happen the same way.

The Tesla Model S has proven that performance isn't what's keeping electric cars from mass adoption. It is the safest car ever built, it is the fastest production sedan ever built, it can carry 5 adults and two children 265 miles at normal freeway speeds. It is regarded by many car experts to be the best sedan ever built. In short, the Model S shows what is possible. The big stumbling block is price.

Yes, the energy density of gasoline is many factors higher than the best batteries in the world right now. However the modern car wastes over 60% of that energy on useless heat, so to match the actual usable energy of gasoline in the automotive application isn't the impossible goal it might seem. Batteries, and potentially other electrical energy storage devices will only get better and better as the years go on. Remember, 1886 to 1907 cars were pretty much a toy and seemingly going no where, out of reach of the common man.

Things change and resistance, or ignoring that change is what Luddites did.
 
The modern car become so widespread because the concept worked very well and it could be made very cheaply. Tesla cars are excellent cars in their own right especially compared to other electric vehicles. However, their generally lower performance and higher cost compared to cars of the same cost really mean they aren't quite there yet. The battery technology is obviously still a lacking and far from having the sort of energy density of a the equivalent amount of fuel in weight. Saying so is not being a Luddite. That's just stating a fact.

The capabilities of electric power vehicles at the current time is obvious in their applications to aircraft. Look for example at the Pipistrel Panthera. The range and endurance is dramatically lower for the all-electric model than the internal combustion engine model.

Lower performance? I take it you've never driven one.
 
Lower performance? I take it you've never driven one.

I only say that based on the numbers. A Tesla Model 3 will cost $35,000 before incentives. It has a 215 mile range and 0 to 60 time of 6 seconds. For $25,000 a Hyundai Sonata Eco 1.6L has a 0-60 of 6.7 mph. In city driving, it has a range of 518 miles. It has lower performance speed wise but it is $10,000 cheaper as well. I'm sure you can find a $35,000 car that can go faster than the Model 3 and further as well.

Going back to the Panthera example, I'm sure the folks at Pipistrel sought out the best batteries and motors they could find for their electric model without dramatically raising the price. And yet, the performance difference is clearly there.

Don't get me wrong, I've heard very nice things about Tesla cars and think they are very cool. But I'm not going to just charge in and declare them the best cars of their size and cost in existence nor would I suggest that Tesla cars have rendered internal combustion vehicles obsolete. Even those involved in the industry have expressed their opinion of the lack of batteries with sufficient energy densities.
 
Well, as of Sat P.M. Almost a quarter million folks have plunked down a deposit. So somebody must like the idea of purchasing an as yet unproduced vehicle.

Avidyne should have been so lucky.
 
The modern car become so widespread because the concept worked very well and it could be made very cheaply. Tesla cars are excellent cars in their own right especially compared to other electric vehicles. However, their generally lower performance and higher cost compared to cars of the same cost really mean they aren't quite there yet. The battery technology is obviously still a lacking and far from having the sort of energy density of a the equivalent amount of fuel in weight. Saying so is not being a Luddite. That's just stating a fact.

The capabilities of electric power vehicles at the current time is obvious in their applications to aircraft. Look for example at the Pipistrel Panthera. The range and endurance is dramatically lower for the all-electric model than the internal combustion engine model.

How is a Tesla performance lacking?

The Model S that I drove was the best handling / accelerating car, along with best ride I have ever driven, and I currently own both Mercedes and BMW's.
 
A few points- From 1886 to 1907 The automobile was an expensive rich man's toy with little practicality. There was very little infrastructure to support it and you really couldn't go very far with it. In 1908 Henry Ford unveiled to the world his Model T that he not only redesigned the car in ways to make manufacturing the car cheaper and therefore more affordable to the masses, but he also invented the modern assembly line to bring costs down further. When the Model T hit the road, there was still very poor infrastructure to support cars, but that changed very quickly as people lined up to buy Model Ts.

We are starting to see the same transformation happening today. Once travel by horse, or horse and carriage was the practical method of transportation and the infrastructure was advanced and built out to support that mode of transport. Today horses are a novelty and a pass time by and large. The old horse support infrastructure has been replaced with one to support gasoline powered cars. This change will happen the same way.

The Tesla Model S has proven that performance isn't what's keeping electric cars from mass adoption. It is the safest car ever built, it is the fastest production sedan ever built, it can carry 5 adults and two children 265 miles at normal freeway speeds. It is regarded by many car experts to be the best sedan ever built. In short, the Model S shows what is possible. The big stumbling block is price.

Yes, the energy density of gasoline is many factors higher than the best batteries in the world right now. However the modern car wastes over 60% of that energy on useless heat, so to match the actual usable energy of gasoline in the automotive application isn't the impossible goal it might seem. Batteries, and potentially other electrical energy storage devices will only get better and better as the years go on. Remember, 1886 to 1907 cars were pretty much a toy and seemingly going no where, out of reach of the common man.

Things change and resistance, or ignoring that change is what Luddites did.

Don't get me wrong, I'd welcome better battery and motor technology especially in future aircraft. I'm just not particularly fond of how it's being brought about. Like I said before. The idea of the government favoring one particular industry for any reason is just very problematic.

So I'm certainly not ignoring improvements in technology. My concern is strictly with how they are brought about.

Another part of this concern is that many of the same people calling for the government to throw money at electric technologies only want the "clean" sort like solar and wind. Those same folks oppose nuclear power which has serve us very well (20% of our energy is from nuclear power). They want the government to play favorites with their investments. but what if the government chooses wrong or overlooks something? What if the solution is not in fact solar or wind but a way to promote the break down of radioactive waste? In fact, what's the problem with securely burying waste in the middle of no where in a way that has no impact on any human or even the local biology beyond the immediate area? Of course, we might not even see anyone figure out a way to promote the break down of radioactive waste if those folks have their way and block the development of nuclear power technologies in favor of "clean" ones.

And for the record, I don't oppose the idea of electric powered vehicles nor do I care where the electricity comes from. I personally really look forward to electric general aviation aircraft.

Anyway, I'll end my comments on this topic here. I've expressed my points and I encourage others to contribute their opinions as well.
 
Last edited:
How is a Tesla performance lacking?

The Model S that I drove was the best handling / accelerating car, along with best ride I have ever driven, and I currently own both Mercedes and BMW's.

"A Tesla Model 3 will cost $35,000 before incentives. It has a 215 mile range and 0 to 60 time of 6 seconds. For $25,000 a Hyundai Sonata Eco 1.6L has a 0-60 of 6.7 mph. In city driving, it has a range of 518 miles. It has lower performance speed wise but it is $10,000 cheaper as well. I'm sure you can find a $35,000 car that can go faster than the Model 3 and further as well."

I never said the Teslas are bad cars. I only said the battery and motor technology in them are still not on par with many current internal combustion engines and a tank of gas. See my example about the Pipistrel Panthera's all-electric and gas engine models. It makes it the differences quite clear especially given how aircraft are especially more demanding on engines and motors than cars given how they must be expected to run at higher powers for extended periods of time. Compare also the performance of Formula 1 and Formula E cars. There's quite a difference there. As I've said, and only the most fervent will deny, the electric motor and battery technology just isn't there yet.

Only when the technology gets "good enough" will we see that Tesla can start turning a serious profit without the need for subsidies. After all, they do make a nice car by all accounts. Now make it cheaper and even better and let's talk.
 
"A Tesla Model 3 will cost $35,000 before incentives. It has a 215 mile range and 0 to 60 time of 6 seconds. For $25,000 a Hyundai Sonata Eco 1.6L has a 0-60 of 6.7 mph. In city driving, it has a range of 518 miles. It has lower performance speed wise but it is $10,000 cheaper as well. I'm sure you can find a $35,000 car that can go faster than the Model 3 and further as well."

I never said the Teslas are bad cars. I only said the battery and motor technology in them are still not on par with many current internal combustion engines and a tank of gas. See my example about the Pipistrel Panthera's all-electric and gas engine models. It makes it the differences quite clear especially given how aircraft are especially more demanding on engines and motors than cars given how they must be expected to run at higher powers for extended periods of time. Compare also the performance of Formula 1 and Formula E cars. There's quite a difference there. As I've said, and only the most fervent will deny, the electric motor and battery technology just isn't there yet.

Only when the technology gets "good enough" will we see that Tesla can start turning a serious profit without the need for subsidies. After all, they do make a nice car by all accounts. Now make it cheaper and even better and let's talk.


Yes, you did claim Teslas were lacking in performance. I am guessing you have never driven a Tesla.

And furthermore, if you think a Hyundai Sonata is a " performance" vehicle, I am also willing to guess you haven't driven performance luxury cars.

A Sonata...... LOL....

Like all front-drive sedans, the Sonata resists turn-in when curves arrive quickly; with pronounced forward weight bias (60.6/39.4 front/rear) and front tires required to transmit power to the pavement while handling cornering loads, its limits come early.

Would stickier rubber help? Almost certainly. This Sonata Eco rode on a set of Hankook Kinergy GT all-season tires (205/65R-16), which can be provoked into shrieks without much effort and which limit skidpad performance to 0.81 g—not terrible by mid-size-sedan standards but not good, either. These tires also figure in lamentable braking performance—185 feet to stop from 70 mph.
 
A few points- From 1886 to 1907 The automobile was an expensive rich man's toy with little practicality. There was very little infrastructure to support it and you really couldn't go very far with it. In 1908 Henry Ford unveiled to the world his Model T that he not only redesigned the car in ways to make manufacturing the car cheaper and therefore more affordable to the masses, but he also invented the modern assembly line to bring costs down further. When the Model T hit the road, there was still very poor infrastructure to support cars, but that changed very quickly as people lined up to buy Model Ts.

And Congress held hearings to break up Henry's company and hand it to "better educated" businessmen and investors of the time. Ford had to fight his government to keep his company back then. Read up on it, it's fascinating. Like today, Congress had their pet oligarchs and Henry threatened all of them. "Entrepreneur" wasn't a commonly used word and nobody thought of them as special in any way.

Ford squeaked by, by the skin of his teeth, because he was savvy and owned -- a telephone. When pressed by Congress that believed he "wasn't smart enough" (read: Not bred into the oligarchy of the day and not willing to share his profits with them, including being one of the first companies to self-fund large loans direct to the public, boy the central bankers didn't like that...) to run his own company, he exclaimed that he didn't need to be. He had this new thing called a telephone on his desk and he could call and talk directly to the country's leading experts on any topic by asking for them and waiting until they transported themselves to the town telephone operator's office for a long distance phone call.

Congress was seriously ****ed at him for that.

The generally re-written history books like to make it out like his entrepreneurial spirit and wonderful product were all that brought about the Ford Motor Company empire. Actually he was a stubborn prick (not unlike Jobs or Musk) who had to fight his own government to keep solitary control of his company (very unlike Jobs or Musk).

You see, in the case of Musk, he had the foresight to buy off the politicians early. Tie his product to a populist tax and watch the giddy politicians line up begging him to make products that can loosely be associated with "green" mentality. VERY loosely when you look hard.

The Tesla Model S has proven that performance isn't what's keeping electric cars from mass adoption. It is the safest car ever built, it is the fastest production sedan ever built, it can carry 5 adults and two children 265 miles at normal freeway speeds. It is regarded by many car experts to be the best sedan ever built. In short, the Model S shows what is possible. The big stumbling block is price.

Well you got there eventually. It never was performance. All sorts of electric enthusiasts were building screamer little conversion cars before Musk. It was hob-nobbing the politicians at dinner parties and buying their loyalty, as well as buying the tax breaks with favors. It was ALWAYS the PRICE that was the back-breaker of a production electric car, and it still is.

He also knows how to strategically play the press. People signed up for the thing before it's released because they get a government DISCOUNT on them if they get a low production number. They get all the other citizens to add to our national debt for their toy.

Who wouldn't sign up if they had an interest in electrics and an electric met their niche driving mode?

It's great to have the guy who needs a pickup truck and lives on a dirt road and his kids and his grandkids pay for your toy! Sweet deal. Only available if you pretend convincingly it's about being "green" or whatever lies are necessary to get the government to hand out wads of cash.

There's no legitimate scientific reason We The People should be subsidizing a Tesla. Other than making existing battery technology more physically dense, it won't return anything back to society that wasn't already do-able without subsidization.

Musk hasn't produced much in terms of real innovation. He's just packaged up things that already existed really well and convinced John Q Public he's building the next "Flying Car".

Preempting numerous problems by playing to populist rhetoric saved him from both following in Henry's footsteps and having to fight government regulators over "safety" and "distribution" issues, as well as helped him avoid having Ford's modern company and brethren from turning him into that guy they made the movie about that made a better car decades before the big three did, and they killed him off with regulations. Umm, Tucker. That's him.

It's rarely the person who makes something truly new or useful who wins in our society anymore. Jobs did it, making new things that nobody had seen, but Musk is quite a different animal.

He made sure to get the political ducks in a row first and a significant portion of the purchase price of his products covered by Uncle Sam, before he made them. He's the new breed of robber baron, business-wise.

He had a great starting point with the nuts in overcrowded California mandating X number of electrics for no particularly scientific reason. Notice where his company is headquartered? Political kickbacks galore. It's nearly a lifestyle in California. He could have put the company anywhere. Literally anywhere. He put it in the heart of the political territory demanding the product.

"Come to the pahhh-tay dahhhh-ling. The Senator will be there. You've met the Senator haven't you? Let's work out how we'll get the votes to pay for my next venture. Good gub'mint jobs await for your constituents all paid for by the entire country. We just won't call them that though. We'll work it through a corporation that without the rebates to individuals would be a niche toy for rich people. Cool, huh? We'll get the Senator to keep voting in more requirements for the product to be made, and for the tax kickbacks, and we will build what his laws mandate for the People who will pay partially via direct payments and partially through hidden payments taken out for them in the form of socialized debt load by the Senator..."
 
Jeez... an awful lot of angry Luddites in this room! The Model 3 looks to be fantastic. This 400 miles to Grandma's house thing is tiring.

^ This ^. Except on the VW Diesel forums, it's "800 miles range, with a 5 minute recharge capability". This crap normally comes from diesel fanboys (and I drive a Touareg TDI). Tired, stale excuse that doesn't rationally apply to 99% of drivers.
 
People signed up for the thing before it's released because they get a government DISCOUNT on them if they get a low production number. They get all the other citizens to add to our national debt for their toy.

I will serve you well if, before you make a statement like that, to close your eyes and repeat to yourself 3 times: "The U.S. is not the only country on earth. The U.S. is not the only country on earth. The U.S. is not the only country on earth...".

The lines for the Model 3 outside the U.S. started earlier, and were much longer than the lines in the U.S. Toronto had 2000 reported orders that day - twice that of the highest U.S. location (Century City, Los Angeles). The same multi-hundred people lineups happened in every country where Tesla is selling. Australia, New Zealand, UK, Hong Kong, Germany... Yes. Germany.

Below is one of my favorite pictures from the launch day. People lining up for the Tesla in front of a Mercedes Benz dealership. And that was in Montreal.

(Oh, I'm not sure if I need to mention this, but Toronto and Montreal is in Canada, which is like this whole other country...).

I was in line in WA. Nobody around me in line thought they would get the tax break. What will be left of the Tesla tax break is going to go to Tesla and SpaceX employees, since they have first option on the car, and maybe a few lucky previous owners in CA. There is not a single new owner who will get the tax break, unless the law somehow changes before then. And in the press and even on this forum, everybody is calling it a $35k car - not a $27.5k car (unlike when people used to refer to the base Model S as a $60k car, when it was really a $67.5k car). The reason people lined up there was because they wanted to get the car earlier - and boy was that a good decision, because we will probably get it over a year earlier than people who ordered it the very next day. It's the same reason people line up for an iPhone - to get it earlier, not because they get it at a different price.

So maybe you want to rethink your hypothesis that the lines were all about the DISCOUNT?

nH7s5yr.jpg
 
There's no legitimate scientific reason We The People should be subsidizing a Tesla. Other than making existing battery technology more physically dense, it won't return anything back to society that wasn't already do-able without subsidization.

No politics implied, but frankly We The People don't subsidize enough when it comes to transportation infrastructure. Rail, EV charging, new technology. We need to spend more, collectively.

Musk is doing well "channeling" Jobs. He gets both the marketing and the technology. He's created a buzz, has developed a cadre of current and future owner fan boys, and has irritated Luddites. I say good on him.....
 
Tesla is freely sharing his technology and building the biggest battery plant in the world in Reno, Nevada. So when other companies start using his technology guess where they are going to buy the batteries. Don
All with your money.
 
CNBC reported this morning that orders for the Model 3 exceeded $10 Billion over the weekend.

Lotta cars, lotta jobs.....
Lotta happy drivers...


Lotta pressure on MBZ, BMW, Audi, etc....
 
Hopefully this will be a wake up call for the majors... "If you build it, They will come.."
 
Thankfully, it stops being your money when you write the check to the IRS. It becomes our money to be used for the common good.

There are those who can reasonably conclude that "the common good" does not include funding the purchase of personal assets by private persons.
 
And, by the way, I would like to have one of these cars; believe Tesla is making fine cars.

Just wait, these delivery positions will be selling for big premiums.
 
There are those who can reasonably conclude that "the common good" does not include funding the purchase of personal assets by private persons.

For those buyers of Tesla's, is the government "subsidy" a direct payment from the US Treasury, or a tax credit, similar to the credit for mortgage interest?

Gary
 
For those buyers of Tesla's, is the government "subsidy" a direct payment from the US Treasury, or a tax credit, similar to the credit for mortgage interest?

Gary
Tesla has received an estimated $4.9 Billion in government subsidies directly to build their infrastructure. The first 200,000 buyers of their vehicles get a $7,500 tax credit from the Fed, in addition to tax credits from certain states on top of this.
 
Tesla has received an estimated $4.9 Billion in government subsidies directly to build their infrastructure. The first 200,000 buyers of their vehicles get a $7,500 tax credit from the Fed, in addition to tax credits from certain states on top of this.

Thanks! Wasn't sure how that worked.

Gary
 
And exactly which Civic model are you referring to? Remember, said Civic must go from 0-60 in under 6 seconds, get the same energy-economy and have all the technological features of the 3. Oh, and with the tax credit, the cost ain't $15K more with a loaded Civic. It ain't $15K more without the tax credit either.

Lol, there are tons of vehicles in the Civic/Sonata/Optima/Mazda 6 segment that will run 0-60s in the mid-to-upper 6's and have plenty of tech options that are close enough to the base $35K Model 3. If you're talking about tech like lane-changing, parking assist and self-driving, that's going to push the Model 3 towards $40K quickly, so it doesn't get included in the $35K version we're talking about here. Even if some of the models are at $25K, it's still $10K worth of fuel and maintenance to make up which is 6-7+ years of expense for most people. The Model 3 is a nice looking car, and Tesla seems to build some decent vehicles, but I don't see the "value" in a car that doesn't do anything differently while costing $10-15K more than a similar vehicle. I'm willing to bet those batteries used in the EV's are just created with non-environmentally harmful products not strip mined in other parts of the world, too, huh?
 
I believe that $4.9B figure is for all Musk ventures, including Solar City and SpaceX. Space X alone got a $1.4B gov contract. Tesla Motors got a $465 m DoE loan, and has since repaid it. Would've been smarter for the taxpayer to have made an equity investment, as Tesla's market cap is now $30+ billion.

BTW, Apple started with $500K of taxpayer funding, so did Google. Those seemed to have worked out for the common good.

I'd sooner see investments like this than public funding for private sports franchise stadia.
 
If you can think of a better investment that your taxpayer dollars has ever done, by all means - I'm all ears.

So, if they are making all this economic awesome...WHY ARE WE SUBSIDIZING THEM?!?

Companies should thrive or die in the market on their own merits, not because they can bribe...er, donate to a congressman to have a subsidy put in a bill somewhere.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top