Ted
The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
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iFlyNothing
Well, the Cheyenne (PT6) and Commander (TPE331) both had allowances for something like 50 hours on 100LL per TBO.
Selling my Baby.
- Thread starter Aztec Driver
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Well, the Cheyenne (PT6) and Commander (TPE331) both had allowances for something like 50 hours on 100LL per TBO.
ChemGuy
Cleared for Takeoff
I'll be up there Monday for a couple phase inspections! I always buy as much as I can, they are usually $1.50-2.00 cheaper than FTY!!! And they do all my maintenance.
Jet-A is $3.08 there right now!!!
Johnny and the guys do know their big, 'spensive Cessna's.
Hopefully he can get out to the field again someday..
Im based at RYY and I stop there every chance I get. Hawthorne doesn't even give you cab fare after screwing you over there.
N747JB
Final Approach
They take care of my 182 as well, I like those guys. Jimmy is still in the hospital recovering from his crash in Columbia, but he was in good spirits when I went to visit him a couple weeks ago at Shepard Spinal Clinic.Johnny and the guys do know their big, 'spensive Cessna's.
Hopefully he can get out to the field again someday..
Im based at RYY and I stop there every chance I get. Hawthorne doesn't even give you cab fare after screwing you over there.
Sounds right, thing is, when you hit that 50hrs, you hit TBO regardless any other hours remaining. I also seem to recall some very short allowance before you had to do a hot section. I think the way I would treat this allowance is if I was stuck somewhere needing fuel with access to AvGas but no JetA. Dilute what I have with enough gas to get to where I can get back to loaded with kerosene.
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flyingcheesehead
Touchdown! Greaser!
Bryon,
Sorry to hear you're selling the bird!
The answer, of course, depends on how fast you want to sell it.
One thing you have going for you: A nice panel. That means that at least your plane will probably sell, eventually. There are an awful lot of Twinkies out there with a shotgun panel and no GPS listed at pretty much give-away prices that are just sitting there not selling, not flying, doing nothing but rotting away.
Even the "D model" one has been for sale for months, and that's with a Garmin 750 aboard. Even with the Miller mods, turbo, de-ice and a nice panel - A plane that'd have been snapped up in a heartbeat for $150K ten years ago - The $109K asking price has gotten them nowhere.The unfortunate thing: You have engines that are 75% of the way to TBO. I learned the hard way that the whole TBO thing is not linear when it comes to selling a plane. Once you're past about 2/3 of the way to TBO, everyone assumes that they're in for an immediate overhaul, and probably half the buyers out there just don't want to deal with overhauling an engine. A smart buyer will go for one that's at TBO and priced accordingly, as any remaining time they get out of the engine(s) is a bonus and while having your plane down for a while does suck, getting an engine overhaul isn't that big of a deal if you can afford it.
I'd say that if you want to sell it in a reasonably short timeframe, you'll probably have to start it at $60K and be prepared to accept as little as 40 if you get an offer.
I sure miss the good ol' days of twins. I think they've gotten a bad rap lately.
Fearless Tower
Touchdown! Greaser!
Yes, but $110k these days will get you a very nice and well equipped Baron.
Not knocking Twin Comanches, but at that price point, you can get more plans for the money.
Yep, 75% TBO is where they hit 'core value' in the resale market. That's why they are the most economical planes to buy, all the time you put on the engine is free from further depreciation between 75% and the point where the engine starts destroying core value components. Lunch a rod through the case, you just killed the entire core value beyond the price of scrap metal. So the trick is to buy them at 75% and fly them until the oil analysis starts showing a bad trend, overhaul them, fly another 200hrs (nobody is going to pay you the initial 200 hrs of depreciation and the first 200hrs don't really affect the resale value, so you may as well fly them and the install cost off) and then sell it (or run through another complete cycle). The wildcard method is to buy one with a low time engine that has calendared out of TBO. This can either be a boon deal or a bust depending on the conditions the engine was stored in. It could be near new, or it could fail core requirements.
Aztec Driver
Line Up and Wait
In these nanny state wimpy miserable social and economic times we are living in, the chances of "better times" are extremely minimal. I am just hoping not to lose too terribly much.
On a positive note, I did get 900 hours of reasonable use out of it, and it is in much better condition now then when I started.
Ted
The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
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iFlyNothing
I also think that hoping for "better times" on a 50ish year old airplane are rather hopeful at best.
FormerHangie
En-Route
I dunno, sound like the economy's pretty good for those who can afford to own and operate a twin. It's the other 95% that's not doing so well.
Hope it sells soon for you and sorry to hear that you're going to be planeless.
Ted
The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
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iFlyNothing
That's how any downturn in the economy goes. If you have a good job and are gainfully employed (or otherwise have enough money to get through), it's not so bad for you. If you have a bad job or are laid off, it's bad.
2009 was good for me. I was gainfully employed and was able to buy a lot of things cheap in large part because others couldn't afford them or afford to buy toys in general. That was the year I bought the Aztec. Although my investments dropped substantially, I was dumping money into them still during the downturn and made all that money back (and then some) shortly thereafter.
Fearless Tower
Touchdown! Greaser!
This. If you are able to have a lot of cash when the bull turns bear, you will be in a great position to buy some nice toys and good investments cheap.
stratobee
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There's an upturn in the economy now - real or not we'll see. But real estate prices have almost doubled since 2010. Yet, this is the first time I know of where aircraft prices have not followed. During last boom, Aerostar 700's regularly went for $500K. Today you can't get rid of them for even 1/3'd. That tells me one of two things:
a) This is not a real upturn.
b) Twin prices will never recover.
a) This is not a real upturn.
b) Twin prices will never recover.
The risk is if the bear for that market will turn back to bull or not. Some markets just die. As long as you are buying for recreational/use value, you do quite well. If you are dependent on an upturn and a profitable exit strategy to make it viable, you risk the market loss.
By the way, it could be both, and is. If there was a real upturn in the economy, the Fed would have raised interest rates the other day. The only thing that is causing an appearance of an upturn is the confidence that interest rates will stay low so more money is being borrowed again and being spent, but it's just digging a deeper hole. The 'up tick' is a product of pure market speculation as we have done nothing to increase actual value, we just printed trillions of dollars.
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JoseCuervo
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I believe a) the upturn is real.
I don't believe b) twin prices are connected to the economy upturn.
I have a hunch that with the advances in technology, that there is more and more business getting done without being face to face at the same table.
Thirdly, I also think that the "recession" has scarred a generation of people similar to our parents/grandparents who lived thru the depression. Some of these people have seen foreclosures, bankruptcies, unemployment up close and personal enough that they will forever have spending habits that are more modest.
Remember in 2005 all the real estate agents driving Hummers? I am not sure that kind of over the top spending happens for a generation or two. Perhaps, too late for old twins.
Everskyward
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Everskyward
Unless you are talking about the very small proportion of people who are interested in a "classic" for its own sake, I think the ones who are attracted to old twins are the ones who want two engines at a cheaper price. Cheaper than twin turbines, or even single turbines, that is. These airplanes are getting older and older, so I do not see much of a recovery, no matter what the economy does.
Jay Honeck
Touchdown! Greaser!
The upturn has been very real in South Texas. Everything has doubled and tripled in value, and our business followed suit.
Until now. The last two months we are starting to see the negative impact of cheap oil down here. Lots of highly-paid people have been laid off, and the first thing they cut is recreation. Sales tax receipts on the island have dropped for the first time in three years.
We shall see if this is just a blip, or a general decline.
Until now. The last two months we are starting to see the negative impact of cheap oil down here. Lots of highly-paid people have been laid off, and the first thing they cut is recreation. Sales tax receipts on the island have dropped for the first time in three years.
We shall see if this is just a blip, or a general decline.
Everskyward
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I'm not convinced that "everything" includes older piston twins...
Fearless Tower
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Real Estate prices increasing is not universal though. Yes, in some areas, prices have gone up. Others haven't. Here in Norfolk, VA, they have been flat lined for the last 3 years. This town is chock full of vacant commercial real estate. Economy here is going nowhere and I am sure other areas are in similar shape.
So, there is no nation-wide upturn.
From what I could tell (watching the twin market for the last 4-5 years)Twin prices really dropped when fuel was almost universally over $6/gallon and car gas was well over $3/gallon and pushing $4 in some areas. That turned a lot of people away and while fuel has gone down a little, I am not sure too many are comfortable taking a chance that it won't go back through the roof.
The problem that a lot of folks have is that many remember the years where general aviation airplanes were significantly appreciating. I think those days are gone. I think we are seeing enough of the post 2000 manufactured airplanes coming down in value that many would rather pay for those than a 40 year old model.
Treat an airplane like a car and expect that it won't be anywhere near what you paid for it when it comes time to sell and you won't be disappointed.
Fearless Tower
Touchdown! Greaser!
Exactly. The day of the late 70's made airplane increasing in value is gone and not likely to return unless it is a specific/unique model with collector demand.
dell30rb
Final Approach
A friend recently flew out to Texas to buy an F-150. I looked into doing it myself, a truck listed for 30k here would be listed at 23-24k there. I assume its because the oil price has dropped, and companies are laying off employees. I noticed TX, OK, SD all had a lot of 2-4 year old trucks priced very well compared to NC prices.
Ted
The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
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iFlyNothing
340As, 414As, and 421Cs are going up in value. One of my friends with a higher end 340A has noticed asking prices have gone up $100-200k from a few years ago when he bought it.
Aerostars have a stigma attached. Unreliable, poor support, and small interiors. Three things that people don't want. Deserved or not, that's the stigma. People want nice interiors that their families can easily get in and out of. An Aerostar is not that.
You have to look at specific areas of the market.
The 'getting in and out of' is where I see the Aerostar's advantage, especially in comparison to the 340 narrow cabin vs wide oval. The door up front means the pilot loads last and can secure the door from their seat before sliding forward. With the door in the back unless your passenger is trained and trusted on the door, you have to secure it and do the "ass in face" scuttle up the aisle.
Fearless Tower
Touchdown! Greaser!
Ted didn't say the Aerostar was worthless. Just that it has a stigma that other types don't necessarily have which makes the resale market tighter.
I wasn't disagreeing with the overall post, just expressing one of the things he saw as a retraction, I and others see as a benefit. The over all result of what he said I agree with.
In the end the Aerostar is more closely compared with a 310, it's a pilot's airplane and typically operated by people who fly solo or two up with many of them pressurized for comfort at their best performance altitudes.
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Ted
The pilot formerly known as Twin Engine Ted
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You're thinking like the pilot, not the husband (or sits-in-back-I-can't-fly-this-thing-to-save-my-life owner) who's thinking about the rear seat passengers. The Aerostar sucks for passenger entry/egress, same with the 310 (although Aerostar is worse). One 421 and now MU-2 owner I know had an Aerostar. He sold it because his family complained about getting in and out. Loved the 421, the MU-2 less so but it's 30% faster so it makes up for it.
For a pilot, the Aerostar is absolutely nicer. I wish I could add a second door to the 310 at the left seat. That would make entry/egress certainly look more flattering...
Pilot's airplane vs passengers' airplane. Passengers' airplanes are what sell now.
Exactly, the Aerostar is in the 310 market, not 421, and the 310 market is still depressed outside of mostly the T-310Rs. The T-310R is probably the best pilot's plane in twins if you don't want the extra costs of the Aerostar that come with the extra speed. They cost near double to own/operate but don't double the speed. Aerostar is a nice 1-3 person airplane. But as you said, pilot's planes aren't selling, it's about getting passenger value.
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astanley
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stratobee
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I would agree with this. This Pavlovian dog keeps many expecting that to happen again and it won't.
As for Aerostar, I will agree. It's more of a pilots plane than a family plane. Although not any smaller than a B58 inside, it's just not big enough to appeal to a larger family. They want club seating and a wide aisle.
Ted
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I thought they arrested & executed crack dealers in your new city/state
Don't tell the folks at Liberal I moved here!
Challenged
Pattern Altitude
This might be a good candidate for "last airplane" for me. How's the interior room compared to my Sierra? Counter rotating props?
Fearless Tower
Touchdown! Greaser!
I've never been in a Sierra, but I imagine the cabin is similar to a Duchess. I think the Twin Comanche is slightly roomier than a Duchess. Certainly no smaller. Biggest downside is there is only one door.
Most PA30s do not have CR props, but single engine isn't that difficult with the horsepower.