Weather Question

Here in Memphis, going thru any airspace is easy when you request flight following. Even through the FedEx push ( literally 30+ heavys all coming from every direction at once) I flew straight over KMEM with clearance. Not saying its not hard out in Cali but just a suggestion.

I would say that if the weather along your route does look good, schedule an hour lesson with a CFI to help you go over weather relating to your flight. This will help you plan safely for your trip and learn.

Some advice for coastal areas that I use when flying to the Gulf, watch weather patterns and take note as to when the weather is usually best during the day. Then plan trips based on this data collected and you will have better odds of good weather.

Don't fret about not being able to fly, as the saying goes; it's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than being in the air wishing you were on the ground.

It sounds like your a safe pilot and stay safe by having your own minimums, that's good. I say get some training in weather and either get your IR or take some lessons in case you get into IMC accidentally.

Thank you for your reply, but I doubt I will be cleared through the Bravo.

About your suggestion that I spend money, hire a CFI, and take a "one hour lesson" between now and my trip:

What? I work full time tomorrow (Wed) and next day (Thu) and then we leave. The airport and CFI's are 3 hours' drive (round trip, in rush hour traffic) When do I have time for a 1-hour lesson with a CFI? And on one day's notice? The CFI who gave me a check out, I don't want to fly with again. My old CFI, no way. So I really do not have a CFI right now.

I already have the owner of a flight school (in San Luis Obispo) for free, willing to talk with me, Friday morning, regarding her TAF and forecast.

And if I spent / borrowed over $10,000 for my PPL, I don't have any money left to get my instrument.
 
Thank you for your reply, but I doubt I will be cleared through the Bravo.

About your suggestion that I spend money, hire a CFI, and take a "one hour lesson" between now and my trip:

What? I work full time tomorrow (Wed) and next day (Thu) and then we leave. The airport and CFI's are 3 hours' drive (round trip, in rush hour traffic) When do I have time for a 1-hour lesson with a CFI? And on one day's notice? The CFI who gave me a check out, I don't want to fly with again. My old CFI, no way. So I really do not have a CFI right now.

I already have the owner of a flight school (in San Luis Obispo) for free, willing to talk with me, Friday morning, regarding her TAF and forecast.

And if I spent / borrowed over $10,000 for my PPL, I don't have any money left to get my instrument.

Sometimes the best answer isn't the one you want to hear. It sounds to me like you don't have a lot of confidence in making cross country decisions. The ideal scenario is that you'd find someone that can help you with this and do some trips with you until you are comfortable. That someone may cost you some money.

The PPL is a license to learn. You will not know if this trip can be completed until a few hours before takeoff. Even then you might find out half way there that you can't make it the rest of the way. That's what VFR aviating is - like it or not.

You're just wanting things you can't have right now. You're wanting to know FOR SURE that you can make it. That's not even possible with an instrument rating and more capable equipment. You need to play these trips loose, you'll get there when you get there, you'll get home when you get home. If you can't do that you shouldn't be doing them.
 
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Sometimes the best answer isn't the one you want to hear. It sounds to me like you don't have a lot of confidence in making cross country decisions. The ideal scenario is that you'd find someone that can help you with this and do some trips with you until you are comfortable. That someone may cost you some money.

The PPL is a license to learn. You will not know if this trip can be completed until a few hours before takeoff. Even then you might find out half way there that you can't make it the rest of the way. That's what VFR aviating is - like it or not.

You're just wanting things you can't have right now. You're wanting to know FOR SURE that you can make it. That's not even possible with an instrument rating and more capable equipment. You need to play these trips loose, you'll get there when you get there, you'll get home when you get home. If you can't do that you shouldn't be doing them.

Which means I'll probably drive for this one. It isn't my trip, and people are counting on us being there, and even scheduling us to cook meals for the group.

On the other hand, if it was my trip, I'd take 4-5 days off for a TWO DAY vacation... and then fly, just us, in the more capable plane.
 
Which means I'll probably drive for this one. It isn't my trip, and people are counting on us being there, and even scheduling us to cook meals for the group.

On the other hand, if it was my trip, I'd take 4-5 days off for a TWO DAY vacation... and then fly, just us, in the more capable plane.

Meh. I'd just tell the people you're flying and you'll get there when you get there. Tell your boss you'll be back to work eventually. Works for me.
 
Meh. I'd just tell the people you're flying and you'll get there when you get there. Tell your boss you'll be back to work eventually. Works for me.

I can't tell you - publicly - what my boss is like. Even today, as before, he had a staff meeting and pointed out that, by law, he doesn't even have to give us vacation or sick time, and that he does so by his own choice. You have NO IDEA what it is like inside my office.
 
Even though Jesse is right, many people can't tell the boss to go #$%$% himself. Kinberly, it has been a long time but, I can remember what it is like. Unfortunately the PPL is not worth much for serious travel (IMO). You will learn in time to not even look at weather any more than 48 hours in advance and then pay little attention more than 24 hours.
My flying is of course totally different than yours. I tell the boss if we have a morning departure I will send him an email the night before with my best guess. Afternoon departure, email him that morning with my best guess.
 
I can't tell you - publicly - what my boss is like. Even today, as before, he had a staff meeting and pointed out that, by law, he doesn't even have to give us vacation or sick time, and that he does so by his own choice. You have NO IDEA what it is like inside my office.
I know it's easier said than done - but life isn't worth that - find somewhere worth working.
 
I vote for drive. Everything about this trip points to "getthereitis", for sure. And there's probably a healthy dose of Macho thrown in, as you'd love to tell the friends/family there that you "flew down". I've been guilty of that, myself.
Gosh, I'm SOOOO glad I live in Phoenix, where we seldom worry about "clouds"... or "fog"!!!
 
What about the possibility of leaving Thursday after work if the opportunity presents itself? I'm with the others. Needing a hard departure date and a hard return date (especially when they are four days apart) is tough in VFR GA. Hell, it's even hard in IFR GA.

If I'm making a trip like this I typically plan for my departure date but then will jump all over it the day before if I can.
 
What about the possibility of leaving Thursday after work if the opportunity presents itself?


At night? I can't even get to the BF until 7 or 8pm and then he has to drop off our luggage and his dog, and my dog I can't drop off after 8pm, then we get to the airport around 9 or 10pm, off by 11pm, there by 4am? And wake everyone up? I don't even think they have the place reserved until Friday and I go to bed by midnight each night. I'm not flying at 2 in the morning. Plus I can't check in with the FBO and we don't have a car.....
 
At night? I can't even get to the BF until 7 or 8pm and then he has to drop off our luggage and his dog, and my dog I can't drop off after 8pm, then we get to the airport around 9 or 10pm, off by 11pm, there by 4am? And wake everyone up? I don't even think they have the place reserved until Friday and I go to bed by midnight each night. I'm not flying at 2 in the morning. Plus I can't check in with the FBO and we don't have a car.....

Heh. I told ya Logistics was half the battle using light aircraft to travel. ;)

A lot of us have had to "train the boss", and sometimes you can't. But it's worth trying to teach them.

Bosses that don't understand passions for living and can't be a tiny bit flexible are usually pretty sad people. I hope for your sake you can find a better person to make wealthy.

You're enabling his dreams, he could at least be understanding as long as you make up the time. Anyway...

As far as weather goes, is there a meteorology course at a local college? I have found the multiple met courses I took long ago to have been invaluable in looking at weather.

And weather still falls under that, "It is what it is..." category in the real world.

Forecasts are great but they're still just an educated guess.

I've done VFR XCs where the plan was to go to a halfway point where the WX should be good and treat the second half as a possible "cancel and air return" to the starting point.

As long as you always have a true "out" you can always turn around and go home or where ever you came from.

Regarding the Bravo clearances... Flight Following and saying you're VFR to [destination] helps. Controllers tend to help those of us going somewhere just a tiny bit more than just "VFR" wandering around their airspace.

They may give you vectors or "Direct To" routines to keep you out of their congested areas, but it's fairly rare they'll turn you down outright on a VFR XC.

Once one controller puts you in the computer with a destination you become just another target being handed from controller to controller, very efficiently.

You're not 100% "in the system" as a VFR pilot but once you're datablocked and tagged up, they mostly just treat you like you are.

Jesse's comment that you are over thinking is true, but we all do it at first. These days I look for a "window"... weather comes in big waves, naturally. If a big wave of crud is "crashing ashore" from the Pacific, you're driving. If your flights can be between he waves, you're good. The rest would just be an exercise in judgement along the way.

Launched out of Denver once for Houston, thunderstorms popped along a line from about College Station, TX to Houston that afternoon. We ended up continually diverting to the right and out into West Texas knowing the line would move East and no lime forming behind it (via eyeball observation). Arrived KDWH at 22:00 local time that night. Waited out the line on the ground at an airport way off our planned route. Found a good Chinese place to eat at.

Weather turns VFR XC flight into unplanned adventures as long as you always turn toward your "out".

I look harder for what my "out" is going to be than the route weather if the weather is up for grabs. "Where is the place I will go if this turns to crap?" I can look out the window at the weather on the route. I need to know where to go to make it look a whole lot better if the route looks crummy.

"End-runs" around stationary weather patterns are a common tactic. Thus... all that pre-planning may be for naught if you're really trying to get somewhere. I didn't have a course line plotted for that run around the thunderstorm line, but I did know better weather was there and how much flight time I had in my tanks. A quick calculation of groundspeed and a look at the chart for a "big enough" airport to probably have some services, and some VOR twiddling, and we were landing 200 miles off course at a cool little place to go inside, pull up the radar map, and wait it out.

That's pretty much how real VFR travel gets done, IMHO.

Don't disregard 1-800-WX-BRIEF. They'll give an "Outlook Briefing" anytime for looking forward for the trip home and in rapidly changing conditions you can land, look at weather maps at most FBOs in the pilot lounge and call them again for updates.

Plus you need to close out that last VFR flight plan and open a new one anyway, right? :)
 
Take the inland rout, you will have more options for landing if things get quiet. Do not have deadlines. If you have to be back on a certain day, take the car instead.

John
 
There's a good book out there called "Severe Weather Flying" published by ASA that . Here's the trick to understanding weather: Know how to obtain and interpret weather products and know how to detect hazards (close temp/dew point spread etc). I'm not in the school of thought that say's pilots have to be well versed in meteorology to be safe, but I feel that knowing how to interpret the various products is a must and with time, your knowlege of the "why" behind all of it will increase. Of course as with every subject, the more you know, the better off you'll be.
 
I can't tell you - publicly - what my boss is like. Even today, as before, he had a staff meeting and pointed out that, by law, he doesn't even have to give us vacation or sick time, and that he does so by his own choice. You have NO IDEA what it is like inside my office.

Hope you're spreading your resume around.
 
I vote for drive. Everything about this trip points to "getthereitis", for sure. And there's probably a healthy dose of Macho thrown in, as you'd love to tell the friends/family there that you "flew down". I've been guilty of that, myself.
Gosh, I'm SOOOO glad I live in Phoenix, where we seldom worry about "clouds"... or "fog"!!!

But you're always taking off at 5-7000' :rofl: can you say density altitude!
 
Kimberly,

Start with ADDS Weather, then DUATS for your route of flight. What others have said is true. You may not know if you can go until the day of the flight, and even then there may be some questions. However, you will never learn if you always stay on the ground unless it is absolutely CAVU. I am NOT recommending scud running nor purposely launching into MVFR.

I know it is difficult but see if you can build in some wiggle room for departure and return trip dates. Often a day either way will solve the weather issues, sometimes not. If this is NOT possible, then you will always be second guessing the weather for at least the return trip even if the flight there is CAVU.

You have a lot of options when in the air to avoid weather. Learn to use them. Using a different route, doing a 360 or diverting to another airport along your route of flight are all valid options. I have sat out weather for a few hours at an airport, then continued on without problems many times.

Learn to use Flightwatch, and practice calling them up when CAVU so you get comfortable with the various ways to contact them.
 
Is anyone else coming from your area who can leave at the same time as you in a car and possibly pick you up if you need to divert and land because of weather that pops up?

Sounds like you got a deal from your school to rent without minimums, so just leave the plane where it is for the weekend if necesarry and pick it up on the way home.
 
I would really encourage you to try and fly this trip.

If you drive because you have to get back at a certain time and your car breaks down. Then what? You call your work explain what happened. Deal with the car, get back home, life goes on.

If you fly commercial because you have to get back at a certain time and they have a mechanical or otherwise cancel. Then what? You call your work explain what happened, catch a later flight, get home, life goes on.

If you fly down yourself and get delayed due to weather. Then what? You call your work and explain what happened. Wait for the weather, fly home. Life goes on.

The only difference is the last option will have you feeling a tremendous sense of accomplishment. You'll finally get to see some benefit from all of your time and money.

Feeling good about yourself will pay dividends in every area of life.
 
Because I wanted to know your expectations.



As a matter of fact, I've got those rates beat...and I bet your CFI doesn't have an advanced degree in meteorology and isn't an expert in aviation weather.



Sold. Actually, my rates are published here and do not include an Elite member discount of 20 percent. In any of the books or online resources that might be suggested to you here or by your CFI or other pilots, you won't get the kind of training - the training that you truly need - that I offer. My goal is to provide you with practical lessons that you can immediately apply on your next flight and that includes learning how to integrate all of the newest tools available (including how to properly use the GFS MOS products that were posted in this thread) so you can make an educated go/stay decision.

The interesting thing is that very, very few GA pilots (probably less than one-half of one percent) get formal training in weather. That's truly amazing given that weather is probably the single biggest physical factor that limits your flying activity.

Ya know... I am always wanting to learn more about weather... Have you toyed with the idea of setting up a webinar and hopefully getting 10 -20 or maybe even more POA'ers to pay a fair rate and you can learn us all the finer points of whats happeneing up there... I, for one would be in on that... :idea::idea::idea:

Ben.
 
Partly Cloudy

or

Mostly Cloudy

All three days.

What does that even mean? I have terrain, in some places, where I need higher cloud ceilings. I saw a day (and I flew) where it was overcast but at twenty thousand feet.
 
Be patient and become a student of weather. No one gets it right all the time. ;)

If you have to leave on Friday and be back on Monday you are setting yourself up for "getthereitiss". Be very careful about flying cross country and having a timeline. There are times when I have been stuck for 3 days waiting for weather to clear. :rolleyes:

One of the best weather site I like to use is:
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KLNK&state=NE

Check out SBP...
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KSBP&state=CA

Still looking great for Friday. HUGE wind spike middle of the day so departing in the morning sounds the best.

Also sounds like a lot of people think the only way for me to learn weather is to just go out there. I have two days (Sunday and Monday) when I could fly back and I just asked the boyfriend if he would be OK getting in the airplane on either of those days and dealing with the weather in flight, as in, diverting, landing, etc. and not knowing when we will get home. He said yes. We just found out if we bum a ride from his parents, they are coming back Sunday regardless, so flying now won't be any different. Monday has a "slight" chance of rain.
 
Partly Cloudy

or

Mostly Cloudy

All three days.

What does that even mean? I have terrain, in some places, where I need higher cloud ceilings. I saw a day (and I flew) where it was overcast but at twenty thousand feet.
Absolutely, this is one of the reasons that weather forecasts intended for the general public are often not very useful to pilots. And it's also why you almost always have to wait until 12 hours or less before your intended departure time for a forecast that has the information you will need. For cloud bases and ceiling heights over a large area, I look at the Area Forecasts on ADDS. The TAF Forecast Discussions can also be useful, but the ones that most NWS offices put out are literally that and only discuss the reasoning that went into the TAFs, which are only in the immediate vicinity of the airport they're issued for.
 
Ben,

Well...you hit the crux of the problem...getting pilots to pay for training. I would be more than willing to do a FREE Q&A session (webinar format) on weather for a small group (15 or less). It's a Q&A, so I really don't have to prepare anything formal in advance. I could start with a short 15 minute basic lesson and use the remaining 45 minutes to address questions in an ad hoc fashion on any aviation weather topic. If there's enough interest, I'll set up a time in the near future to hold such a webinar.

If anyone is interested, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I'll attempt to organize the webinar. No promises that it'll happen at all or be held at a convenient date & time for everyone.

I was thinking more like a rather intensive day long deal,,, maybe a Sat or Sun schedule.... I am in for 100.00 bucks of so for my share... If we can get 10 -20 POA'ers I believe it would be money well spent.. Rent a plane for 45 minutes or get a days long detailed training on weather that will keep you alive one day... Seems like a no brainer to me....:yesnod::yesnod:.

Ps ..I will contact you on your link

Ben.
 
I have an impatient passenger, a job to get back to, a dog sitter charging me by the night, and other outside factors.
That's what gets pilots into trouble.

Weather happens.

Un-forcasted weather happens.

You have to allow for the fact that you may decide to leave a day early or stay a day or two later. Or stop somewhere on the way back. That's pretty much unavoidable. If you CAN'T do that, you need to drive.

When I brought my new ride home (onz) from near Indianapolis (i72), the weather looked good. The briefer said "no problem". I made it as far as 7w5 - 60 miles from home - and that was pushing it (thunderstorms in the area). All I knew about the airport was that it was the closest when I decided that enough was enough. The FBO gave me a ride to a hotel and picked me up the next (foggy) day. I finally was able to scud run the last bit home that afternoon.

Time to spare, go by air.

That's just the way it is.

You do have the advantage that there is an ocean off to one side - pretty easy to scud run when there are no obstructions. (Picking your way through the 1800 - 2000 MSL towers east of Toledo when you are at 1600 feet MSL requires good visibility.) But the downside of the ocean is, of course, when it brings a bit of fog in.

If you are thinking "Should I be on the ground?" the answer is yes.
 
Also sounds like a lot of people think the only way for me to learn weather is to just go out there.
Practice helps.

Won't help you for this weekend. But plan "pretend trips". Check the forecasts. Then play it out real time - every hour or so, check the actual weather / radar/ METARs and see if your plan is working or if you need to divert. Make decisions like you were in the air. Check forcasts to decide when to "return" etc.

The bit you would be missing is the view out the window which helps you get around isolated things and give you a better feel for just how bad it really is.
 
Like I said, two weeks ago I had turbulence and REPORTED (but unseen) low clouds (unexpected / not forecasted). I left early on my flight to Monterey in January due to clouds too. But so far, I have not, in flight, had to fly around any weather. I am very aware that one day this will change. Perhaps I've been lucky, perhaps I don't fly enough, perhaps I cancel easily.


All three, but this all changes as well. One thing to remember, the sooner you get experience, the sooner you put it to use, the safer you are.
 
Still looking great for Friday. HUGE wind spike middle of the day so departing in the morning sounds the best.

Also sounds like a lot of people think the only way for me to learn weather is to just go out there. I have two days (Sunday and Monday) when I could fly back and I just asked the boyfriend if he would be OK getting in the airplane on either of those days and dealing with the weather in flight, as in, diverting, landing, etc. and not knowing when we will get home. He said yes. We just found out if we bum a ride from his parents, they are coming back Sunday regardless, so flying now won't be any different. Monday has a "slight" chance of rain.

Kimberly,

Can you answer why there's a slight chance of rain on Monday??
 
Partly Cloudy

or

Mostly Cloudy

All three days.

What does that even mean? I have terrain, in some places, where I need higher cloud ceilings. I saw a day (and I flew) where it was overcast but at twenty thousand feet.


It means there will be room to fly around between the clouds and hills. You don't have to go over all the hills, you can go between them as well.
 
Kim, don't obsess about Class C airspace. You do not need a clearance if you are just passing through, all that is required is communication. The radar facility needs to know who you are and what your intentions are so that they can inform other pilots and keep you from swapping paint. Class B is something else, of course, but you should be aware that most Class B's have VFR flyways or transition routes printed on the terminal area chart itself.

Insofar as weather is concerned, you can't do better than Scott D. Go to www.avwxworkshops.com and see what he has to offer free of charge, then decide if you want to sign up for one of his services. :wink2:

Bob Gardner
 
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Absolutely, this is one of the reasons that weather forecasts intended for the general public are often not very useful to pilots. And it's also why you almost always have to wait until 12 hours or less before your intended departure time for a forecast that has the information you will need. For cloud bases and ceiling heights over a large area, I look at the Area Forecasts on ADDS. The TAF Forecast Discussions can also be useful, but the ones that most NWS offices put out are literally that and only discuss the reasoning that went into the TAFs, which are only in the immediate vicinity of the airport they're issued for.

Just called the WXBRIEF on the way to work with questions and they said do not trust any forecast out there that tells you anything more than 48 hours from now.

The boyfriend this morning really wants to wait until "the last minute" to decide (aka Friday morning).
 
On Friday morning, we will need to decide:

1. Fly to SLO

2. Bum a ride from his parents for free, down side is they are coming back a day early on Sunday

3. Drive in my car, leave when we want, come back when we want

I tried to get him to choose between 2 and 3 but he wouldn't (not sure why). I think he secretly wants to fly.
 
The boyfriend this morning really wants to wait until "the last minute" to decide (aka Friday morning).


You are PIC, not him. Tell him YOU, and only YOU will decide such things, including "when" the decision is made.



:D
 
Just called the WXBRIEF on the way to work with questions and they said do not trust any forecast out there that tells you anything more than 48 hours from now.

The boyfriend this morning really wants to wait until "the last minute" to decide (aka Friday morning).


Exactly. Pretty much the only thing I do for weather is call FSS on my way to the airport and you can't even count on that to be accurate. After waiting 2 days for weather to depart Ft Wayne IN, I launched into perfectly clear blue skies with a briefing that said Severe Clear for my route of flight to St Louis all day. Just on the far side of Indianapolis (I was flying I-70 IFR since I had no working nav radio) clouds started to form below me. Within 5 minutes I'm diving for the deck through the last hole and finished the flight to St Louis reading highway signs.
 
Two questions:

1. Where can I learn about how to read charts (esp. the ones in foreflight). I am most interested in charts that show real time cloud heights since at times I need to be 5500 feet on my route. Otherwise I can go to 3500 at times.
Real-time? Ain't none. Closest you get are PIREPS and METARS. Forecast? You get most of that from the Area Forecast (FA), including bases and tops. There are also the Skew-T forecasts, which Scott Dennstaedt can explain to you.

2. The "go" vs "no go" question. Should I fly or drive.
Can't say. First, I'd need to wait for the forecasts to come out. Second, I don't really know what you can handle and what you can't.

I would like to decide Thursday night but am willing to wait until Friday. After that, if we fly, the question becomes when do I fly back. I want to stay through Monday, and the passenger (boyfriend) doesn't want me to fly home solo - perhaps he thinks he's "helping" me fly the plane . . . but of course he would like to stay until Monday.
Hard to make a go/no-go decision that far in advance (Thursday night for a Monday flight). However, if ceiling and vis data are enough for you, try checking the MAV MOS graphics at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/index.html. They're probably the best guess you'll find of ceiling and vis that far ahead.

In any event, it sounds like you need an instrument rating. When you get 40-45 hours of XC PIC time and the IR written passed, call PIC -- I'd be happy to fly out and do the training with you. That will make a lot of these issues way easier to deal with.
 
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The boyfriend this morning really wants to wait until "the last minute" to decide (aka Friday morning).
Your boyfriend is being smart indeed. That is the best time to decide. I personally don't even look at the weather until its time to go which is then when I make the decision.
 
Here is the area forecast discussion for the SF Bay Area and Monterey. As you can see, the forecasters are not sure what is going to happen with the frontal systems over the weekend and early next week.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMTR&wfo=MTR

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING H5 AND WARMER 850 TEMPS. ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80. AS TYPICAL...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
TRICKIER AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THEIR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.

H5 FALL OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OFF THE PAC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TRANSLATING TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORCAL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

A MORE ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HOPE TO SEE A LITTLE
BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
It's hard to make a blanket statement about weather in this area since there are so many microclimates. To me, "onshore flow" would indicate the presence of clouds and fog along the coast. The inland route would not have as great a chance of that problem. Like everyone else has said, the forecast will become more reliable as the time frame shortens but it's never completely reliable.
 
If you have to leave on Friday and be back on Monday you are setting yourself up for "getthereitiss". Be very careful about flying cross country and having a timeline.

:yeahthat:
If you are not that savvy about interpolating the weather trends, have a timeline that you have to stick with, and can wait up until noon the day of your departure (whew)... Then use the weather channel. If its gonna be nice for the weekend +1, then take the leap. If there is any chance for a change... Drive...

That said...I think I saw you post something about starting your IR. You might as well start wrapping your head around learning the weather stuff now... IMHO...
 
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