Colgan Q400 Down near KBUF?

Was a tailplane stall the culprit in the Roselawn ATR accident? I remember the discussion about the role the autopilot played in keeping the pilots from knowing about the significant trim changes to maintain level flight, but I'm not sure if they decided the tail stalled first or not.
 
bobmrg said:
Ice-contaminated tailplane stall. You heard it here first (my best guess, anyway).

Bob Gardner
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My first thought was Roselawn. I sincerely hope that is not the case but the Q is relatively new. And yes, the 2 year streak is over.

And I suspect already comparisons are being made between the highly experienced crew of 1549 and the young crew of this Q and the respective results.
 
Here's some info from a regular Q400 rider on another list:

I ride in Q400's about 30 times a year, when the ice between San Jose and Boise keeps my Mooney grounded.

Some observations;
- We regularly pick up ice coming through 12-9,000 ft. coming in to
Boise. I've seen the wings pick up a great load of ice with no
perceptable effect to a passenger, no wallowing, no change in AOA, no change in thrust settings. Obviously I'm not up in the cockpit so I don't know what the real feel is.
- The boots break up the ice quickly and efficiently.
- The aircraft is usually in the landing configuration, gear down and
flaps to at least 1/2 at 4,000 AGL or above. This might be Horizon's
SOP, other carriers might have different procedures.
- I have never (I mean never) observed a change in nose attitude from
the time the "pitch to approach" adjustment has been made. Power
changes, yes, but no nose movement until we're over the threshold.

Based on that observational data (which is worth whatever it's worth from a pilot looking out the window at the wing and "feeling" the aircraft operating) I don't think this was an ice related accident. I could be completely wrong.
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I'm with Skip.

I have a few suspicions as to what happened. I could be right, I could be wrong, but I also have several different theories which are very different, so I know that, at best, only one of my speculations is correct. Talking about speculations don't help anybody, just cause rumors to spread and make it more difficult to spread the facts when they come out.

Let's let the investigators do their job. I'll speculate (irony intended) that they want to know what happened as much as the rest of us do.

While they're doing their job, our job is to mourn for those lost and maintain vigilence to flying safely in our own lives. For some reason, when a plane with propellers goes down it always hits me harder.
 
TMetzinger said:
Was a tailplane stall the culprit in the Roselawn ATR accident?
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No it was a loss of and or reversal of roll control. At least that's what led to the initial upset. And IIRC the conclusion was that SLD conditions formed ice behind the boots due to runback and that obstructed the airflow over the ailerons.

I'd be surprised to learn that airframe ice caused the crash at Buffalo unless the boots failed or they weren't activated.
 
TangoWhiskey said:
Continental's most dreaded flight number left IAH for BUF this morning. COA9999 is reserved for the accident response "Go Team". It's a flight number you never want to see "in the air"... if it is, something bad's happened... :(

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/COA9999
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Things like this just make me sad. It's good to see it doesn't have a lot of flights, though.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
Things like this just make me sad. It's good to see it doesn't have a lot of flights, though.
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Sure looks like ATC arranged for "Direct Buffalo" for them... Their filed route is pretty much like that, but not that perfectly smooth.
 
TangoWhiskey said:
Sure looks like ATC arranged for "Direct Buffalo" for them... Their filed route is pretty much like that, but not that perfectly smooth.
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Good on ATC for that. I noticed it looked pretty darn near direct as well.

Priority handling is nice... it's just the reasons that all too frequently exist in order to receive it that aren't. This is one of those cases.
 
lancefisher said:
No it was a loss of and or reversal of roll control. At least that's what led to the initial upset. And IIRC the conclusion was that SLD conditions formed ice behind the boots due to runback and that obstructed the airflow over the ailerons.

I'd be surprised to learn that airframe ice caused the crash at Buffalo unless the boots failed or they weren't activated.
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I'm curious - why would you be surprised? It seems like there was a lot of icing in that area at the time; lots of other airplanes reporting significant accumulation that they couldn't get rid of with boots; and the FZRA. Should be interesting to find out what happened....

The loss of mode C also makes me wonder - was that just altitude related or did they have an electrical problem. I've flown into Buffalo before, and I don't remember seeing any mountains.
 
I love flying so much, it's such a wonderful thing its too bad we all have to keep reading about the loss of life. I feel for the families and wish we all could just hear and see the beauty of aviation. :frown2:
 
sba55 said:
I'm curious - why would you be surprised? It seems like there was a lot of icing in that area at the time; lots of other airplanes reporting significant accumulation that they couldn't get rid of with boots; and the FZRA. Should be interesting to find out what happened....
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I heard one other airplane saying they needed to get out of the ice (jet something) because their de-icing system was not working. Later (might have been in a subsequent recording) they said they were still in ice but that the system was working so it was OK.

Most airplanes reported light ice, one reported moderate mixed.

From what the BBC said, it sure sounds like a tailplane stall (and sounds like the crew reacted with that in mind). However, many other airplanes were fine, including a Navajo.

The other bit of speculation I heard was that there may have been a prop governor failure, based on witnesses saying the engines made a sound "like a chainsaw" right before the crash.
 
from article:

Within seconds of the flaps being moved, the aircraft experienced a "series of severe pitches and rolls", Mr Chealander said.



Just before the recording ended, the crew tried to raise the landing gear and reposition the flaps, he added.
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sounds like tailplane stall to me. will be interesting to see what else the investigation turns up.
 
Listening or reading what Scottd talks about on this board and others, it seems that with icing in the area, especially FZRA, there is no rhyme or reason as to who will encounter the worst of it. One airplane can fly through with no trouble at all, the second encounter severe, the next perhaps light to moderate.

Whatever the cause(s) that led to the outcome, I simply want to express my deepest sympathies and prayers to all those involved.
 
I'm very sorry to hear of your loss Matt. Thank you so much for helping us try to understand how this can happen to excellent, professional people.

Best,

Dave
 
I guess at least a few of you saw my detailed comments on the pilots and the deice/anti ice systems of the Q. It has been suggested that I refrain from detailed comments at this point, and I don't nessisarily disagree. Ill consider reporting it, perhaps, once the ntsb has had a chance to come to and release a more comprehensive conclusion.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I heard one other airplane saying they needed to get out of the ice (jet something) because their de-icing system was not working. Later (might have been in a subsequent recording) they said they were still in ice but that the system was working so it was OK.

Most airplanes reported light ice, one reported moderate mixed.

From what the BBC said, it sure sounds like a tailplane stall (and sounds like the crew reacted with that in mind). However, many other airplanes were fine, including a Navajo.
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A few things about that - as Scott already pointed out, once there is significant ice, it's impossible to say who will get hit with it. As I've said before, Jet or not doesn't make much of a difference, what really makes a difference is how long and where exactly in the ice the plane was. This certainly underlines why I think rather little of light twins with de-ice that can't climb and fly the flight on top of the ice...it's a similar crash waiting to happen.

Seems like they're going to figure out this one rather quickly...
 
SCCutler said:
Is Matt w/ Colgan?

Isn't Eamon, as well?
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Eamon's with Chataqua (sp) but he flys from EWR for them (as Co Express), IIRC. Also IIRC, Eamon lives in upstate NY. So the concern as to his well being was quite warranted (in case he was deadheading in back). Last I heard, he's flying ERJ's.

Fortunately, word is that Eamon is OK, but "in shock" about the events.

Matt, glad to hear you're OK. Truly is tragic events. I've flown Colgan a few times - and this is going WAY back to when they got their start flying POU to HEF (aka "the IBM express").

NTSB report tonight was that they believe this to be ice-related. Sounds like there may be parallels to Roselawn.

Caught your comments, Matt, and glad you deleted them. This board is publically accessible and is indexed by the web crawlers. If there's anything else we on the MC can do in that regard, let us know.
 
:D
wsuffa said:
...Caught your comments, Matt, and glad you deleted them. This board is publically accessible and is indexed by the web crawlers. If there's anything else we on the MC can do in that regard, let us know.
Click to expand...

Matt: Create a new account.
 
SkyHog said:
The NTSB guy did the country a disservice by feeding the fear of icing in airliners. He really should have touched on the fact that most airliners have the ability to defeat ice. He kind of made it feel like "If you fly into icing, you'se gonna die."
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I agree that feeding facts to the media is a futile exercise.

That said, don't think that airliners do much better at defeating ice than any serious ice-capable airplanes (that excludes anything that doesn't quickly climb to and cruise in the flight levels). There's relatively few transport category airplane icing accidents because those airplanes quickly climb through the ice and cruise above it. You can do the same thing in a TC piston pressurized twin. Neither that twin, a Q400, a 737, or pretty much anything else is made to cruise in ice. It's always about getting above it as soon as possible...

If there actually was freezing rain involved, or maybe SLD, then the type of plane doesn't matter much.....
 
Thanks guys, I'll probably just leave it be for now. Maybe in a week or two when the company and NTSB have had their change to speak, I can repost it if it's still relevant.

Also, I wanted to thank everyone here that called/emailed/texted/PMed/posted/facebooked me, first to make sure I was ok, then to offer their condolences for my coworkers and I. This is going to be a very difficult time for my company and my coworkers, but I take great solace knowing that I (and everyone in the aviation community) have friends like those of you here at POA.

While this isn't an unfamiliar experience in the history of aviation, or even for many folks here, it's a first for me and a lot of my friends and colleagues. And though, regrettfully, it probably won't be the last time we have to see good friends, family, and fellow aviators go west due to tragety, I am greatful to know that we all will always have eachother. It's thanks to places like POA that we can endure, and in fact be better for it. While I've only met a few of you in person, as a very wise man said to me very recently "Hokey or not, it really is something a lot like family. I may not have shaken your hand yet, but you're welcome in my home."
 
sba55 said:
I'm curious - why would you be surprised? It seems like there was a lot of icing in that area at the time; lots of other airplanes reporting significant accumulation that they couldn't get rid of with boots; and the FZRA. Should be interesting to find out what happened....
Click to expand...

From what I saw of the Skew T at the time I don't think that SLD was involved (but I could be wrong, I'm pretty much a novice at recognizing that). I'm also currently of the opinion that snow and SLD aren't a likely combination and the reports I heard mentioned snow and "mist".

The latest info I read indicated that the FDR showed significant pitch AND ROLL excursions which would be consistent with an ice accumulation problem and the NTSB reported that a brief examination of the CVR found a discussion of "significant" ice accumulation on the wings and windshield. Armed with that, it does sound like ice may have been a major factor but the other facts as I understand them (descending, no above freezing temps above the airplane, snow, etc) don't appear indicate the presence of severe icing so if that's true (still a guess, new information might reverse that guess) then it seems likely to me that the boots weren't working. I also heard the NTSB spokesman state that the FDR showed that the crew had indeed activated the boots so that would leave a malfunction if they weren't working.
 
SkyHog said:
130505Z 25012KT 4SM BR BKN008 BKN015 OVC021 01/00 A2983 RMK AO2 FZRAB0458E0459SNE0458 CIG 005V011 P0000 \

:(
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Interesting that the freezing rain only one minute. Did the crew get this report. Most 121 opspecs I've seen prevent takeoff, approach or landing in moderate freezing rain. I wonder if it was showing up at the time.
 
lancefisher said:
From what I saw of the Skew T at the time I don't think that SLD was involved (but I could be wrong, I'm pretty much a novice at recognizing that). I'm also currently of the opinion that snow and SLD aren't a likely combination and the reports I heard mentioned snow and "mist".

The latest info I read indicated that the FDR showed significant pitch AND ROLL excursions which would be consistent with an ice accumulation problem and the NTSB reported that a brief examination of the CVR found a discussion of "significant" ice accumulation on the wings and windshield. Armed with that, it does sound like ice may have been a major factor but the other facts as I understand them (descending, no above freezing temps above the airplane, snow, etc) don't appear indicate the presence of severe icing so if that's true (still a guess, new information might reverse that guess) then it seems likely to me that the boots weren't working. I also heard the NTSB spokesman state that the FDR showed that the crew had indeed activated the boots so that would leave a malfunction if they weren't working.
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Agreed. Listening to the tape, it seemed to me like the CA (or FO) sounded shaken up even minutes before it happened, so it may have been an accumulation issue....
 
Does anyone know what the Q-400 or the Colgan FOM requires for an de-ice and anti-ice test procedures before flight if icing conditions are expected in flight?

Does the Q-400 have an Icing light? I know that the Challenger had it.
 
LearDriver said:
Does anyone know what the Q-400 or the Colgan FOM requires for an de-ice and anti-ice test procedures before flight if icing conditions are expected in flight?

Does the Q-400 have an Icing light? I know that the Challenger had it.
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Dunno about the preflight procedures, but the q400 does have an ice detection system.
 
LearDriver said:
Does anyone know what the Q-400 or the Colgan FOM requires for an de-ice and anti-ice test procedures before flight if icing conditions are expected in flight?

Does the Q-400 have an Icing light? I know that the Challenger had it.
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Yes it has an ice light, and the full deice system is checked on the first flight of the day.
 
scottd said:
Don't know if I totally agree with that statement Lance. It is true though that light snow was being reported at Buffalo and many surrounding airports at the time of the accident.

KBUF 130254Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021 OVC027 01/M01 A2979 RMK AO2

Snow can act to deplete the cloud of supercooled liquid water, but the icing environment here was still fairly "warm" by icing standards. Cloud top temperatures were probably cold enough to support snow in some regions with higher (colder) cloud tops, but there were reports earlier in locations in and around Buffalo of non-convective SLD (freezing rain).

KBUF 130458Z 25012KT 3SM -FZRA BR BKN008 OVC015 01/00 A2983 RMK AO2 FZRAB58SNE58
KELZ 130456Z AUTO 28018G24KT 5SM UP BR BKN015 OVC021 M01/M03 A2977 RMK AO2
KELZ 130056Z AUTO 27021G30KT 6SM -FZRA BR OVC015 M02/M03 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 28033/0031 UPB36E49FZRAB49SNE36
KELZ 130049Z AUTO 26018G31KT 6SM -FZRA BR OVC015 M02/M03 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 28033/0031 UPB36E49FZRAB49SNE36

One of the more interesting reports is from KIAG (Niagara Falls) a little north of Buffalo.

KIAG 122153Z 26021G27KT 10SM -RA OVC024 03/00 A2971 RMK AO2
KIAG 122230Z 26020G26KT 10SM -RA OVC022 03/M01 A2972 RMK AO2
KIAG 122253Z 26020G27KT 10SM -RA OVC022 03/M01 A2973 RMK AO2
KIAG 122311Z 25018G27KT 10SM OVC022 03/M01 A2974
KIAG 122353Z 26019G27KT 10SM OVC022 03/M01 A2975 RMK AO2
KIAG 130020Z 26018G24KT 10SM -RA OVC020 02/M01 A2975 RMK AO2
KIAG 130053Z 26017G22KT 10SM -RA OVC020 02/00 A2976 RMK AO2
KIAG 130153Z 26015KT 10SM -RA OVC022 02/00 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP096
KIAG 130207Z 26016G23KT 10SM OVC020 02/M01 A2978 RMK AO2 RAE07 P0000
KIAG 130246Z 26017G23KT 10SM -RA OVC022 03/M01 A2979
KIAG 130253Z 26018KT 10SM -RA OVC022 02/M01 A2980 RMK AO2 RAE07B45
KIAG 130353Z 26014G21KT 10SM -RA OVC021 02/M01 A2981 RMK AO2
KIAG 130433Z AUTO 31013KT 6SM -FZRA BR BKN012 OVC017 02/00 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE0354B24E27UPB13E24FZRAB27 P0000
KIAG 130440Z AUTO 32010KT 5SM FZRA BR SCT008 OVC014 01/M01 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE0354B24E27UPB13E24FZRAB27 P0001
KIAG 130443Z AUTO 32011KT 5SM -FZRA BR SCT008 OVC015 01/M01 A2984 RMK AO2 RAE0354B24E27UPB13E24FZRAB27 P0001
KIAG 130449Z AUTO 32010KT 7SM -RA BKN010 BKN015 OVC026 01/M01 A2984
KIAG 130453Z AUTO 32011KT 7SM -SN BKN008 OVC013 00/M01 A2984 RMK AO2 RAE0354B24E27B49E51UPB13E24FZRAB27E53SNB53 CIG 005V010
KIAG 130519Z AUTO 32010KT 8SM -FZRA OVC010 M01/M02 A2985 RMK AO2 UPB06E18FZRAB18SNE06B09E15 CIG 006V013
KIAG 130527Z AUTO 31009KT 9SM -SN FEW006 OVC012 M01/M02 A2985 RMK AO2 UPB06E18FZRAB18E25SNE06B09E15B25

There a combination of rain, freezing rain and snow during the afternoon and evening suggestive of a variable icing environment.
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I had seen a report of very brief FZRA at BUF but since it only lasted for a minute or less I kinda dismissed it as bogus. I didn't check reports from nearby airports, that sounds like a good idea.

So I think this was an event that was right on the edge of being a snow producer versus a FZRA or FZDZ producer. The soundings I looked at tended to look more like snow than what we see typically for FZRA or FZDZ.
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That was the basis for my remark that I didn't think that SLD was a major factor. I'm still thinking that if conditions were marginal for SLD production that any encounter with severe icing would be brief and therefore not disabling, especially since the flight was descending rapidly, do you have any emperical data on that?

I would expect that with properly functioning boots, the airplane should have been able to shed much of the ice that overwhelmed the boots once they exited the area/altitude of SLD although if there was significant runback that wouldn't be true. It still seems to me that in order to build enough ice behind the boots they would have to be in severe icing for at least a few minutes but I certainly don't know that for certain. It does seem that if this is a possibility then no booted airplane should expect to survive a SLD encounter for any amount of time and the current FAA guidance (maintain higher speeds, exit SLD proto) may well be insufficient.
 
On the Q-400 is it possible to only blow the boots on the tail or do you have to run the entire cycle of the wing and tail. On the 421 we could interrupt the cycle so that you could blow the tail 2 times for every cycle of the wing boots. Which was helpful.
 
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