Aircraft ownership rush to Exit door

Bonchie said:
All I know is that I’m inundated with students, and most of them aren’t going to the airlines
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This is also my experience. Wide range of ages and both male and female.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Hmm….. so you want me in a pine box because I’m old and my opinion doesn’t agree with yours….. yeah, just shoot those old geezers. There’s a hangar shortage everywhere anyway. Don’t get any blood on the planes though.
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I want you in the pine box because your prognostications have not come true in the 20-odd years I've been flying, but they seem just as loud as the first day I found them floating in the aviation punchbowl.

Right foot first if you please. Also an updated spec sheet on any planes you'll be leaving behind... to help the widow liquidate the dying velocipede into the hands of one of us grim hobbyists who are blind to our doom.
 
Our last Hartsfield experience sold the wife on a twin for serious travel. Huge difference in the Sheltair vs Shiznit Air experience.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
No idea of the big picture; I can only tell you my experience. I am pretty active, about 250 hours a year with a dozen or so students most of the time. I have worked at my present flight school since 2010.

My students are all ages, from mid-teens to one guy who is 79 working on his sport pilot certificate. When I think about the profile of my most common student, it is a male, usually between 20 and 40, wanting to learn how to fly because "I always wanted to," not with a career objective.
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This fits my demographic. I soloed the day before my 60th birthday in late November.
I finally have the time and means to pursue my lifelong dream of flying my own plane, but I don't see any good deals out there for a capable time-builder training plane. Even the clapped out 150s/152s rejected from flight schools all seem to be gold plated with platinum linings. When they come up for sale they are snapped up by eager buyers before the ink dries on the ad. I know the flight school I am using has been actively working on tracking down more trainers - but at a reasonable cost.
 
MBDiagMan said:
One thing though, how many of that age group are moving toward GA and how many are striving to be in the seats of a jet?
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But long term, they fly for a living, get to the point they have a good income, then get back into GA. Lots of retired airline pilots buy a GA airplane.

Also, the flying demographic will always be heavily to the older crowd. Much harder for most younger people to afford flying. Older people have a higher income typically, and the kids are out of the house. You see the same thing in auto racing. Some young ones trying to get to the point of making it their job, and the older ones, who wanted to do it when they were young, but could not afford it.
 
schmookeeg said:
I want you in the pine box because your prognostications have not come true in the 20-odd years I've been flying, but they seem just as loud as the first day I found them floating in the aviation punchbowl.

Right foot first if you please. Also an updated spec sheet on any planes you'll be leaving behind... to help the widow liquidate the dying velocipede into the hands of one of us grim hobbyists who are blind to our doom.
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I just find it amazing that you want to kill me merely because I make a particular statement on a discussion forum.

I’m astounded.
 
Pinecone said:
But long term, they fly for a living, get to the point they have a good income, then get back into GA. Lots of retired airline pilots buy a GA airplane.

Also, the flying demographic will always be heavily to the older crowd. Much harder for most younger people to afford flying. Older people have a higher income typically, and the kids are out of the house. You see the same thing in auto racing. Some young ones trying to get to the point of making it their job, and the older ones, who wanted to do it when they were young, but could not afford it.
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You make another good point…… or two. It is for the most part, older people that have been accumulating long enough to be at the point of aircraft ownership. It’s not a trivial expense, even at the low end.
 
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Dry Creek said:
This fits my demographic. I soloed the day before my 60th birthday in late November.
I finally have the time and means to pursue my lifelong dream of flying my own plane, but I don't see any good deals out there for a capable time-builder training plane. Even the clapped out 150s/152s rejected from flight schools all seem to be gold plated with platinum linings. When they come up for sale they are snapped up by eager buyers before the ink dries on the ad. I know the flight school I am using has been actively working on tracking down more trainers - but at a reasonable cost.
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For me, at that stage of my flying I bought a nice Cessna 140 for my time builder. It was fun and relatively inexpensive to fly. I still have it even though I have had a few other planes come and go. Mine has a custom panel with a six pack and a 420 and ADS-B transponder. It is even currently IFR certified making a great and inexpensive to operate instrument trainer.
 
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Ed Haywood said:
If you had been flying 40-odd years, you might have a different perspective.
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I think aviation has always been ahead of the inflation curve, no matter how far back you go. There’s some truth to policy changes and such having an effect on the industry, but I’m not sure it’s had the impact that some have predicted.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Great point hangie. One thing though, how many of that age group are moving toward GA and how many are striving to be in the seats of a jet?

I think your last comment about the fleet is really valid. It’s not going to get any cheaper to be an aircraft owner, or even a renter.
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You make a valid point on both comments. I would suspect that most folks in that age group are working toward becoming a jet pilot of some flavor or another. That said, years ago, it was a bit easier for the blue collar worker to try their hand at ownership, but those days are more or less behind us, as the market has nearly priced them out. These days, those same folks have had to resort to renting, while the white collar individuals, being less affected by inflation, can still stomach the costs of aircraft ownership and have enough cabbage left over to actually fly and maintain it.
 
MBDiagMan said:
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For me, at that stage of my flying I bought a nice Cessna 140 for my time builder. It was fun and relatively inexpensive to fly. I still have it even though I have had a few other planes come and go. Mine has a custom panel with a six pack and a 420 and ADS-B transponder. It is even currently IFR certified making a great and inexpensive to operate instrument trainer.
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That is nice!

I am still looking.

If you had to guess the appreciation value of that plane from when you purchased it to what it would sell for today, what do think it would be?
 
I gave $20K for her in 2005. She was a beautiful plane with a great running engine but it was almost TBO. With a fresh engine, ADS-B in out and a 420 done since I bought it, I turned down $45K for her about 8 months ago.
 
MBDiagMan said:
I gave $20K for her in 2005. She was a beautiful plane with a great running engine but it was almost TBO. With a fresh engine, ADS-B in out and a 420 done since I bought it, I turned down $45K for her about 8 months ago.
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Thanks for providing that data. I did some research and it seems that I started my flight training about 18 months too late. If I had started earlier, I could have easily found 150s in serviceable shape for less than $20K, and equivalent 172's for only a little more. every time I see where a GA plane is lost due to an accident or storm damage, I realize that my dream of ownership keeps getting further out of reach. While there may have been insurance, I bet that there is no way they come even close to being able to buy a new plane, so that puts even more pressure on the used market.
 
Don’t know if the Covid had anything todo with it, or if it’s coincidental, but at the beginning of Covid, most any plane that could be used for flight training started gain g drastically in value. At least that’s the way it appeared to me.
 
Multiple posters have pointed to the fact that aviation maintenance shops are always booked. As though that were evidence that the GA community were healthy. This is not a sound argument.

All this indicates is that the supply of maintenance service is inadequate to meet demand. However it says nothing at all about the absolute magnitude of the demand. In other words you could have a big community with a shortage of maintenance or a tiny community with a shortage of maintenance.

In reality, the shortage of maintenance capacity is simply another indicator of the ill-health of the GA community. The shortage is of course entirely caused by the FAA in two matching ways. They place excessive restrictions on who may perform service or be an AMT. (The government does this all the time with every industry. The reason you have to wait 2 months to see a dermatologist is because the government restricts who can provide that service) The FAA may also demand excessive maintenance schedules or require inspections of an excessive number of components. Because of simple supply and demand, a lack of mechanics drives up the price of maintenance. In the end this all serves to increase the cost of airplane ownership and ultimately the cost of private aviation. This all suits the FAA just fine of course so it comes as no surprise.

High maintenance costs discourage airplane ownership and lead to a shrinking community. Low maintenance costs encourage airplane ownership and therefore would go hand-in-hand with a healthy GA community.


aterry1067 said:
... maintenance and avionics shops are booked months out, ...
GA is going to be just fine.
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Pinecone said:
FYI, in 1979 a Grumman Tiger at my local filed was $30 an hour wet. But auto gas was under $1 a gallon. And a yearly income of $15,000 was not bad.
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adjusted for inflation, that equals $123.02/hr today.
 
Racerx said:
Maintenance booked up
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There currently aren’t a high number of experimentals on the market, so perhaps you have a valid point.

(I haven’t scrolled through all the replies on this thread, so forgive if this has already been touched on).
 
brien23 said:
The number of aircraft, Cessna listed on trade-a-plane is up and up a lot is this due to high bank loan rate, or people running for the Exit door.
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Aren't most plane loans fixed rate? If so increased listings wouldn't be driven by increasing rates alone. I know many people that are waiting for prices to drop. I think broadly you will see some softening but the most in-demand and well equipped planes will likely be less impacted IMO
 
I'm (still) actively looking - starting to see some price reductions on middle-of-the-pack airplanes; the ones with so-so engine times and/or needing avionics upgrades. There are a LOT of Cirrus (Cirri?) on the block right now. My impression (not supported by research) is those middlin' airplanes are lingering longer. Prices on the very popular models remain well up - understand, I'm not looking at anything much over $125K, so what's happening above that is outside my notice.
 
I bought a beautiful 1968 Cherokee 235 with a low time engine, 3 blade prop and modern avionics. Has great paint and interior. I imported it from Canada. All in for 119k. I think the deals are still out there - just have to maybe look a little deeper, I’m sure a 2018 Cirrus SR22T G6 is going to be hideously expensive no matter what the market. I guess its about finding the right plane for you mission and probably having to make a few compromises along the way.
 
I get to join the long line of sellers whose buyers backed out. Lucky me, I'm still an airplane owner. I'm not renewing my ads, I'm not doing a damn thing to sell this until Spring. I think Winter a crap time to sell an airplane.
 
steingar said:
I get to join the long line of sellers whose buyers backed out. Lucky me, I'm still an airplane owner. I'm not renewing my ads, I'm not doing a damn thing to sell this until Spring. I think Winter a crap time to sell an airplane.
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Salty said:
It ain’t sold until the money is in the bank. I know of 4 sales that have fallen through in the last month when it came time for the check to clear.
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steingar said:
I get to join the long line of sellers whose buyers backed out. Lucky me, I'm still an airplane owner. I'm not renewing my ads, I'm not doing a damn thing to sell this until Spring. I think Winter a crap time to sell an airplane.
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That's a bummer, sorry to hear. Mind sharing what the justification was for pulling out of the deal?
 
I have seen a few analysis and inventory is up along with time to sale, but prices (in general) haven't moved much. I suspect that is the next shoe to fall. How far and for how long is the $$$ question. I would love to upgrade but it's a pure want, not a need so am content waiting for now.
 
steingar said:
I get to join the long line of sellers whose buyers backed out. Lucky me, I'm still an airplane owner. I'm not renewing my ads, I'm not doing a damn thing to sell this until Spring. I think Winter a crap time to sell an airplane.
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that sucks. I saw your ads - nice plane at a nice price. I've been eyeballing mooneys lately. Yours was just a pinch outside my price range. good luck with your sale when you relist !
 
I have an annual scheduled for the end of Feb, we’ll see. A few things were fixed over the year, running superbly right now.

I agree the peak is past, may as well enjoy ownership. I’m due for another Mackinac Island trip.

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82Wideglide said:
that sucks. I saw your ads - nice plane at a nice price. I've been eyeballing mooneys lately. Yours was just a pinch outside my price range. good luck with your sale when you relist !
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If it's only a pinch send me a PM and tell me your thoughts. Only electrons.
 
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