I’m calling the peak

A

AA5Bman

Line Up and Wait
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He who ironically no longer flies an AA5B
Just for fun, I’m calling the peak of plane pricing as of today. Interest rates going up, fuel skyrocketing, plane prices themselves having spiked, war. I’m calling it. I’ve noticed a number of peak-of-the-market planes have been sitting on the market and lowering their prices.

What do you think?
 
Probably the peak on many toys. The rising inflation and fuel prices are a wake up call, and the covid spend fest is over. I expect the pendulum to swing towards a period of austerity.
 
Seems as plausible as any other scenario.

th
 
Just a data point, but I have been watching the # of listings on TAP and controller for SEP, and the numbers have been increasing steadily the last few weeks. I also feel like we are near the top.
 
In similar news, truck prices are slowly coming down. Days on the lot exceeds 90 days for many trucks on car gurus. Most All of them have been discounted from the original price. Some by over $4K. I am guessing that that is their first bottom line. I’m waiting for the third bottom line. In other words “I’m not gonna take any more loss on this, I’ll drive it myself”.
 
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I agree OP...home peak prices to soon follow (I think it will lag behind a couple of months for the spring buying season).
 
well I just bought a house for the baby mama.....$10K under asking......when all comps in area were getting about 10% over asking......
don't know if that is a meaningful data point or not
 
What is a fun fact is that even if the prices stay flat now I’m spending so much on other things like gas and food that I have less money left over. Expensive can be the plane costs more OR I have less money now.

LMK when I can buy a decent 182 for $100k.
 
WDD said:
What is a fun fact is that even if the prices stay flat now I’m spending so much on other things like gas and food that I have less money left over. Expensive can be the plane costs more OR I have less money now.

LMK when I can buy a decent 182 for $100k.
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no no, you're mistaken.....the economy is fine.......everything's fine.....it's your fault for spending too much money.
 
AA5Bman said:
Just for fun, I’m calling the peak of plane pricing as of today. Interest rates going up, fuel skyrocketing, plane prices themselves having spiked, war. I’m calling it. I’ve noticed a number of peak-of-the-market planes have been sitting on the market and lowering their prices.

What do you think?
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I would normally tend to agree with you that these factors historically have cooled the airplane market, but these factors also tend to cool fight training of hobby pilots. So far it hasn’t. Even if interest rates increase 25%, historically they would still be historically rather low.
 
AA5Bman said:
Just for fun, I’m calling the peak of plane pricing as of today. Interest rates going up, fuel skyrocketing, plane prices themselves having spiked, war. I’m calling it. I’ve noticed a number of peak-of-the-market planes have been sitting on the market and lowering their prices.

What do you think?
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Woohoo, I can afford to buy. Now let me go to my money market and....oh.
 
I’m sure peak is soon.

I am going with the price of fuel, The shutting down of energy production (oil) and the push of electric. How long is it going to be before piston engines are worthless

not political but it’s reality
 
WDD said:
Not making this up: a well known news outlet suggested that to combat the pain of inflation we should do another stimulus check.
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Some people are too stupid to believe.
 
I don't know what's better: buying at peak, or selling in the trough. I did the latter, in 2013, could likely have sold the plane for literally double last year. But I also am noticing listings hanging around a little longer than before. And I shouldn't even be looking.
 
Aviatorbrew said:
The shutting down of energy production (oil) and the push of electric.
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Does the electricity fairy bring electricty? Or are mostly fossil fuels burned to produce it with loss encoutered in conversion and storage?
Aviatorbrew said:
How long is it going to be before piston engines are worthless not political but it’s reality
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Funny, the value of remaining airwothty A-65/75s, C-85s, C-90s, O-200s goes up each year.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
I don't know what's better: buying at peak, or selling in the trough. I did the latter, in 2013, could likely have sold the plane for literally double last year. But I also am noticing listings hanging around a little longer than before. And I shouldn't even be looking.
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I did the same thing. 2014. Sold a beautiful '74 C185. Pretty sure it has more than doubled... my real estate trading instincts in the past were pretty bad also. At least I bought my RV in 2017, before the worst of the price spike.
 
I don't want to think about what my cherokee 140 would be worth now (sold it 10 years ago - sniff).

otoh - 10 years of tie-down, 10 years of insurance, 10 years of annual inspections, $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to add ADS-B out... hmmmm, maybe I'm ahead.

(but only if I ignore the value of flying my own airplane any dang time I want...)
 
This market has been intriguing...

Decent but 50 year old 172s climbed to the point where the delta between them and early generation SR20s was almost gone. I'm no Cirrus mark but there was no logic in paying the same for a 1972 172 as a 2002 SR20.

Cherokee 140's and especially 180's were priced equal or higher than 235's with similar times.

Cessna 150's priced higher than Cherokee 140's.

With all logic gone from the pricing, it is bound for a correction.
 
Agree, we are at the peek. Prices on planes and trucks might be coming down, but we don’t know how bad inflation will be yet.
 
Skinnybird said:
Does the electricity fairy bring electricty? Or are mostly fossil fuels burned to produce it with loss encoutered in conversion and storage?

Funny, the value of remaining airwothty A-65/75s, C-85s, C-90s, O-200s goes up each year.
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Very true, but we have never had this unprecedented shut down of natural reasorces to be used to produce energy and the mass push for EV.

The Russian oil supply is only ten percent, That doesn’t add up to equal a $2.00 a gal increase in prices.

AG, back in his day, stated that “ the IC engine is the worst thing ever invented”
That is the push, get rid of oil
 
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