Over/Under Covid 19 deaths in US

[Sluggo63]

Zero social distancing? Didn't they restrict everyone to their cabins as soon as they started seeing confirmed cases?

Thank you for saying this. The passengers were almost immediately confined to their staterooms for a month and allowed three at a time to walk around the deck of the ship. It was the ultimate demonstration of how a quarantine and social distancing helped stop the outbreak, not the other way around.

 

[azblackbird]

We should be asking the younger healthy people to socialize, if they infect each other, they will have immunity and will reduce the spread of the virus. Technical term is “herd immunity”.

Heard on Dr. Radio a few days ago that the more this virus spreads the weaker it gets. Seems to make sense as it makes it way through the low hanging fruit it will come up against resistance and slowly mutate to something that requires a different way to attach itself to a host, thus losing its full potential.

 

[SoonerAviator]

You keep saying that word "immune". I do not think it means what you think it means.

May be speaking out of turn, but I assume he means that even if they contracted the virus, they remained asymptomatic or had extremely mild symptoms not requiring medical attention. I don't think he necessarily meant that they couldn't spread the virus even though they were immune to the effects.

 

[deonb]

We should be asking the younger healthy people to socialize, if they infect each other, they will have immunity and will reduce the spread of the virus. Technical term is “herd immunity”.

Define younger people? Under 19s? Where will they all live until they've acquired immunity?

 

[deonb]

May be speaking out of turn, but I assume he means that even if they contracted the virus, they remained asymptomatic or had extremely mild symptoms not requiring medical attention. I don't think he necessarily meant that they couldn't spread the virus even though they were immune to the effects.

If that is what he meant, his 1% figure is wrong. IFR is 1% of infected, not 1% of symptomatic.

So either way requires clarification.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

- assume 84% immune

If we're going to do math based on criteria that we're just making up, lets go ahead and also assume that we're all millionaires and we're all incredibly good looking.

 

[Ravioli]

^^^^^ What? We're not?

 

[lowtimer]

lets go ahead and also assume that we're all millionaires and we're all incredibly good looking.

Well, we are pilots, doesn't that go without saying?

 

[MooneyDriver78]

Define younger people? Under 19s? Where will they all live until they've acquired immunity?

Anyone under 50 in good health, they can live anywhere that they won’t infect older or unhealthy people.

 

[deonb]

Anyone under 50 in good health, they can live anywhere that they won’t infect older or unhealthy people.

Ok. Let's evaluate that proposal. Let's make it under 44 years, since I have a stat for that. (It will get worse under 50). That's a group of 186 million people.

Now let's also say this whole thing is under-counted by 500% (it's not - based on South Korea it's at most 200%, but people still argue that it it's under-counted by 1000%, so let's split the difference), so our group is 37.2 million.

That means at 0.1% CFR, you're asking 372000 people under the age of 45 year old to die.

In addition to that, at 2% ICU rate, it means you're asking 750000 additional people under the age of 45 year, to go through the following:

"this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning."

From:
https://www.propublica.org/article/...ilure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Anyone under 50 in good health, they can live anywhere that they won’t infect older or unhealthy people.

Ok so everyone under 50 needs to live in one place and everyone over 50 and/or with other health conditions has to live someplace else and there can be no travel between the two. No goods can move between the two without going through a cross dock facility on the border where it gets unloaded from one truck and staged in a room to be disinfected, then another crew loads it into another truck for delivery. Yeah, seems pretty simple. We should be able to have it place by the end of the week.

 

[FormerHangie]

We're now #1 in confirmed cases, and still increasing rapidly.

 

[asicer]

We're now #1 in confirmed cases, and still increasing rapidly.

In terms of cases/pop, we're still pretty far down the list.

 

[deonb]

We're now #1 in confirmed cases, and still increasing rapidly.

"We're going to win so much. You're going to get tired of winning. you’re going to say, ‘Please Mr. President, I have a headache. Please, don't win so much. This is getting terrible.’"

Eerie.

 

[schmookeeg]

Thank you for saying this. The passengers were almost immediately confined to their staterooms for a month and allowed three at a time to walk around the deck of the ship. It was the ultimate demonstration of how a quarantine and social distancing helped stop the outbreak, not the other way around.

I wonder why the ship captain isn't getting a Sully-grade hero's welcome, accolades, and adulation?

 

[FormerHangie]

In terms of cases/pop, we're still pretty far down the list.

Relative to France or Italy, yes. Relative to pretty much any East Asian country, no.

 

[asicer]

Relative to France or Italy, yes. Relative to pretty much any East Asian country, no.

SARS 2003 was their rehearsal drill. COVID-19 is ours.

 

[Datadriver]

If we're going to do math based on criteria that we're just making up, lets go ahead and also assume that we're all millionaires and we're all incredibly good looking.

Not making it up. Looking at a real life occurrence where about 80% living in close proximity did not fall ill.

 

[Datadriver]

Zero social distancing? Didn't they restrict everyone to their cabins as soon as they started seeing confirmed cases?

Keeping people on the boat amplifies the infection, and the air conditioning systems in the cabins can't filter the virus.
Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...e-ship-could-backfire-experts-say/4991376002/

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Maybe so.

But on the other hand, it could be anywhere up to 2.2 million. That's the scenario if we're ineffective in stopping the spread: 66% of the population infected (which Angela Merkel mentioned as the unsuccessful-scenario for Germany). Assuming the 1% death rate that scientists are now estimating, multiplying 66% * 329 million * 1% = 2.2 million.

For comparison, that worst-case scenario death toll is about 3.5X greater than the deaths due to cancer annually.

I bet you are fun at parties.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Not making it up. Looking at a real life occurrence where about 80% living in close proximity did not fall ill.

Living in close proximity, but also kept locked away from one another.

You're trying to make an argument for lifting current public gathering restrictions and you're using low sickness numbers in a situation where people were strictly sequestered as your evidence that this is the right thing to do.

 

[DFH65]

If you listened to the White House presser the last couple of days they are beginning to soften where they think this is going the numbers just are not showing what the doomers are saying is going to happen. At least not yet anyway. Dr. Birx mentioned two factors. One they are not seeing the growth in the places initially effected and the models are not matching up. She said in order for the 60% number to happen this would have to persist through the fall and into next spring unchecked. The media is over hyping this thing. Even Cuomo is back peddling a little https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-cl...everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy

Not saying this thing isn't bad. Not saying precautions like social distancing and washing your hands aren't good ideas they are. BUT closing the whole economy down was a big EXPENSIVE mistake in my view but it isn't going to be bodies lying in the streets either.

Also a little wonky to me is NY hospitals saying they don't have enough ventilators. I get they don't have enough for the doom they are predicting and maybe they will run out at some point but they have more than enough right now. According to this https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/h...rease/71-b07f3c72-2024-4213-8c79-9d880a60b5f9 there are only 1290 patients in ICU this is as of yesterday. First of all I would almost bet only a portion of them are on vents. Also, Cuomo says they have 4000 ventilators in the state (I realize not all in NYC) but also at the White House presser the other day they said they were getting 4000 more over the last 2 days.

The one video posted yesterday from Elmhurst hospital was saying they didn't have enough then the lady in the video says we are down to our last 5. So you have 5 you aren't even using yet.

Don't get me started on the stimulus either. The only thing that is going to do is increase the national debt and make congress rich. Maybe that is too political.

 

[Jim K]

Don't get me started on the stimulus either. The only thing that is going to do is increase the national debt and make congress richer. Maybe that is too political.

FIFY
I think the 'stimulus' is a necessary evil to get the unemployed through a month or so of lockdown until they can go back to work. That said I'm glad I'm highly leveraged due to buying a farm last year. The inflation is going to be great for me.

Every serious discussion I've read seems to point to somewhere around 50-80k. Horrific, but a far cry from the 1-2MM the media was hyping last week.

 

[Llewtrah381]

Longtime lurker here, retired AF physician.

One thing to keep in mind that I don’t see getting much discussion: the measures being used are intended to “blunt the curve”, not actually stop the disease from ultimately spreading at this point. It may be true the OVERALL death rate will prove to be 1% (or 10% or 0.1%) but that’s in an area/situation with reasonably available and comprehensive health care. The fear is the infection rate goes up WAY beyond that, at least in certain areas, because many get ill at about the same time and the resources are greatly exceeded. Then the death rate can go up tremendously - and all of those “excess deaths” would be, more or less by definition, preventable. Italy’s experience was a game-changer here, if you look back at how the world responded, because of that. And Italy does have very good health care, especially in the north (Italy’s life expectancy is 3 1/2 years longer than the US; they’re ranked 5th, to our 35th. Yes, they have an older population, so they’re hit harder - but it’s because they live longer, due to things which include a good healthcare system).

We aren’t trying to “wait out” the virus like some kind of hurricane that just goes away: this is here to stay, like the flu, and we will have “Covid seasons” and deaths from it every year, just like the flu. But right now we have unknown but apparently limited herd immunity because it’s novel, so there are not any “natural” control rods, which means the social distancing, etc. are the only proven tool at the moment to blunt the curve.

Again, it’s about the curve at this point - not whether or not it’s overall more or less deadly than this or that.

 

[MIFlyer]

Italy is also more congested on the whole than the US and has a higher elderly population.

But, I would agree with @cowman that 25k deaths is really not much in the grand scheme of things - 37k is how many die in car crashes every year on US roads roughly.

This is fair, but I'll also add, and details are sketchy at this point, that some significant number of people who recover have permanent respiratory damage.

 

[Ted]

This is fair, but I'll also add, and details are sketchy at this point, that some significant number of people who recover have permanent respiratory damage.

That is true, but a lot of medical conditions result in some sort of permanent damage once survived.

 

[MIFlyer]

That is true, but a lot of medical conditions result in some sort of permanent damage once survived.

Absolutely, but i'm looking at what would it mean for our society if 1/2 the population gets it and 5-10% leave the illness with a permanent lung condition. I bet that's disqualifying to our friends at aeromedical...

 

[SoonerAviator]

Longtime lurker here, retired AF physician.

One thing to keep in mind that I don’t see getting much discussion: the measures being used are intended to “blunt the curve”, not actually stop the disease from ultimately spreading at this point. It may be true the OVERALL death rate will prove to be 1% (or 10% or 0.1%) but that’s in an area/situation with reasonably available and comprehensive health care. The fear is the infection rate goes up WAY beyond that, at least in certain areas, because many get ill at about the same time and the resources are greatly exceeded. Then the death rate can go up tremendously - and all of those “excess deaths” would be, more or less by definition, preventable. Italy’s experience was a game-changer here, if you look back at how the world responded, because of that. And Italy does have very good health care, especially in the north (Italy’s life expectancy is 3 1/2 years longer than the US; they’re ranked 5th, to our 35th. Yes, they have an older population, so they’re hit harder - but it’s because they live longer, due to things which include a good healthcare system).

We aren’t trying to “wait out” the virus like some kind of hurricane that just goes away: this is here to stay, like the flu, and we will have “Covid seasons” and deaths from it every year, just like the flu. But right now we have unknown but apparently limited herd immunity because it’s novel, so there are not any “natural” control rods, which means the social distancing, etc. are the only proven tool at the moment to blunt the curve.

Again, it’s about the curve at this point - not whether or not it’s overall more or less deadly than this or that.

It's been discussed many times, but since there's 50 threads on Coronavirus between 2-3 different forums on PoA, it's hit-or-miss if you come across it. Mods should merge all Covid-19 threads into one and let everyone's heads explode trying to decipher who was responding to whom, lol.

 

[charheep]

Something I saw that I have been thinking about- As the economy crashes, what is the rise in suicides, domestic abuse, alcohol deaths and drug overdoses? And the increase in crime as people run out of money?
Someone said the AA type meetings are all cancelled, so people more likely to abuse substances are now bored and stressed at home.

 

[Ted]

Absolutely, but i'm looking at what would it mean for our society if 1/2 the population gets it and 5-10% leave the illness with a permanent lung condition. I bet that's disqualifying to our friends at aeromedical...

That's definitely an interesting question and I imagine something that the folks at OKC haven't figured out yet, and it will be something that evolves. But again, no different than for many other medical conditions. Cancer? Diabetic? Heart attack? etc. etc... I still bet that most of us will continue to have more friends taken too soon by cancer than by this. I've lost count of the number of cancer deaths of friends and family.

Don't get me wrong, this is obviously a disease that has real concerns and impacts associated with it. I have concerns about my wife going back to work and getting exposed given her relatively chronic lower respiratory issues. But I lived through 9/11 in New York and my city was turned into a war zone (I also remember the WTC bombing in the early 90s), friends of mine have been shot, I could go on. One day it'll be my turn, and one day it'll be everyone else's turn. We can't just live in fear, or we'll never live.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Something I saw that I have been thinking about- As the economy crashes, what is the rise in suicides, domestic abuse, alcohol deaths and drug overdoses? And the increase in crime as people run out of money?
Someone said the AA type meetings are all cancelled, so people more likely to abuse substances are now bored and stressed at home.

Tough to even put a number on that. Could have a rise in those types of issues . . . or, maybe the increased family time/slower pace helps some people "reset" from depression, etc. Most people still seem to think that the economy will begin recovery fairly quickly after the COVID curve has flattened and people begin to get back to work. Q2 earnings are going to rough, but it shouldn't be a prolonged downturn since the economy was still "healthy" before the virus outbreak. It's not going to run the DOW back to 29K by the end of the year by any means, but it should be a v-shaped recovery.

 

[DFH65]

FIFY
I think the 'stimulus' is a necessary evil to get the unemployed through a month or so of lockdown until they can go back to work. That said I'm glad I'm highly leveraged due to buying a farm last year. The inflation is going to be great for me.

Every serious discussion I've read seems to point to somewhere around 50-80k. Horrific, but a far cry from the 1-2MM the media was hyping last week.

Let me go on record that any stimulus bill that is 1000+ pages is not in the best interest of the American people.

 

[Ted]

Something I saw that I have been thinking about- As the economy crashes, what is the rise in suicides, domestic abuse, alcohol deaths and drug overdoses? And the increase in crime as people run out of money?
Someone said the AA type meetings are all cancelled, so people more likely to abuse substances are now bored and stressed at home.

Tough to even put a number on that. Could have a rise in those types of issues . . . or, maybe the increased family time/slower pace helps some people "reset" from depression, etc. Most people still seem to think that the economy will begin recovery fairly quickly after the COVID curve has flattened and people begin to get back to work. Q2 earnings are going to rough, but it shouldn't be a prolonged downturn since the economy was still "healthy" before the virus outbreak. It's not going to run the DOW back to 29K by the end of the year by any means, but it should be a v-shaped recovery.

Like anything there's winners and losers. Frankly this whole thing is good for me thus far. I get to spend more time on my property (I really like my property), more time with my family (I like them, too). For now our salaries haven't changed any so when pricing on stuff goes down we will benefit from that (it's going to, unless the recovery is really, really quick, which I don't think it will be). We've made huge progress on projects we've wanted to do because even though I'm working, my lunch break can involve walking outside and helping my wife with something, etc. I'm not a home school fan at all and we'll see how this experience shifts my opinion once it's over, so that's probably the primary negative. Assuming mortgage rates lower in the coming months (I think they will), I'll probably do a refi to include my truck loan at the same time and benefit from that. So there are already tangible positives combined with some projected other positives for us.

But this sort of stock market drop and current unemployment is of similar magnitude to the Great Depression, which saw lots of suicides. While I'm continuing to dump money into my 401k which will help me long term, obviously unemployed people aren't likely to be doing that.

It's all a thought experiment.

 

[TCABM]

[mention]Ted DuPuis [/mention] curious the impact this is having on Cloud 9.

 

[Llewtrah381]

It's been discussed many times, but since there's 50 threads on Coronavirus between 2-3 different forums on PoA, it's hit-or-miss if you come across it. Mods should merge all Covid-19 threads into one and let everyone's heads explode trying to decipher who was responding to whom, lol.

Aah - thanks.

That really should be the lens through which to see the current restrictions, though, and not get hung up too much on the idea that this is “just the flu - only ten times more deadly”.

Also, as I have seen stated or alluded to, this is no bullet to the head or some other quick death: it can’t be said too many times this is a horrible way to die after a prolonged period. And as I’ve seen stated and believe should be emphasized, even if one survives the hospitalization, it’s often after WEEKS of absolute misery on a ventilator and with residual damage, with a good likelihood of a considerably shortened lifespan.

And I can’t imagine what it would be like for someone in need of a ventilator and not able to get one: they can’t be sedated too much because that’d essentially kill them (by drowning, basically), unlike those on a vent who can even be put into a medically-induced coma and not suffer.

I may have missed this too but it will be “interesting” to see the long-term impact of this on Medicare funding. This disproportionately hits those on Medicare and with massive bills - not just to the patient but even bigger to Medicare. While we may be just “moving forward” the end-of-life expenses for some (because they die early), we will likely be adding a lot of expense to Medicare for those who survive hospitalization. Plus many who die of this would likely have died at home, etc. at lower expense to Medicare. So, if funding was a problem before, this will likely make it much worse for the future.

Again, sorry if I missed these points being made in other threads.

 

[Ted]

[mention]Ted DuPuis [/mention] curious the impact this is having on Cloud 9.

Originally we had planned no impact on operations. However after discussion with our partners, we've all agreed that we're best off suspending flights of homeless pets until this calms down. We will, however, fly medical supplies if the need and request arises.

Truthfully the timing isn't bad. I dropped off the MU-2 a week and a half ago for a new compressor seal, but Honeywell hasn't gotten the part to my engine shop yet. So I'm waiting on that. The job itself won't take too long (about 4 days) but obviously can't be done without the parts. So we're waiting on that.

If we're still halted when the compressor seal is done, I will probably try to make use of the time and get some avionics upgrades done. I know shops are seeing cancellations now including some I'm on good terms with. So we'll just play that one by ear. The budget doesn't currently afford for avionics work but if it's on the roadmap and the opportunity arises, then it might make sense to go ahead and do anyway. One thing is that I try to make sure that downtime is minimized when demand for flights is high. If we're down anyway and I can make use of that time in a productive manner, all the better.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Aah - thanks.

That really should be the lens through which to see the current restrictions, though, and not get hung up too much on the idea that this is “just the flu - only ten times more deadly”.

Also, as I have seen stated or alluded to, this is no bullet to the head or some other quick death: it can’t be said too many times this is a horrible way to die after a prolonged period. And as I’ve seen stated and believe should be emphasized, even if one survives the hospitalization, it’s often after WEEKS of absolute misery on a ventilator and with residual damage, with a good likelihood of a considerably shortened lifespan.

And I can’t imagine what it would be like for someone in need of a ventilator and not able to get one: they can’t be sedated too much because that’d essentially kill them (by drowning, basically), unlike those on a vent who can even be put into a medically-induced coma and not suffer.

I may have missed this too but it will be “interesting” to see the long-term impact of this on Medicare funding. This disproportionately hits those on Medicare and with massive bills - not just to the patient but even bigger to Medicare. While we may be just “moving forward” the end-of-life expenses for some (because they die early), we will likely be adding a lot of expense to Medicare for those who survive hospitalization. Plus many who die of this would likely have died at home, etc. at lower expense to Medicare. So, if funding was a problem before, this will likely make it much worse for the future.

Again, sorry if I missed these points being made in other threads.

As much as I've seen in other threads, I don't think the impact on Medicare has been touched on yet. I'm sure there will be some major impacts to the financials, especially to those who may suffer long-lasting effects from their bouts with the virus.

 

[MIFlyer]

Originally we had planned no impact on operations. However after discussion with our partners, we've all agreed that we're best off suspending flights of homeless pets until this calms down. We will, however, fly medical supplies if the need and request arises.

Truthfully the timing isn't bad. I dropped off the MU-2 a week and a half ago for a new compressor seal, but Honeywell hasn't gotten the part to my engine shop yet. So I'm waiting on that. The job itself won't take too long (about 4 days) but obviously can't be done without the parts. So we're waiting on that.

If we're still halted when the compressor seal is done, I will probably try to make use of the time and get some avionics upgrades done. I know shops are seeing cancellations now including some I'm on good terms with. So we'll just play that one by ear. The budget doesn't currently afford for avionics work but if it's on the roadmap and the opportunity arises, then it might make sense to go ahead and do anyway. One thing is that I try to make sure that downtime is minimized when demand for flights is high. If we're down anyway and I can make use of that time in a productive manner, all the better.

I happened to read something about NYC running out of pets to adopt as everyone is looking for a companion now

 

[Ted]

I happened to read something about NYC running out of pets to adopt as everyone is looking for a companion now

I saw that article as well. There's still need. But a lot of FBOs are closed for 30 days or at least having restrictions, and the reality is that means I'm exposed to other people. By the letter of the law, I'm still considered "essential" but my partners and I have all agreed that the intent of limiting human-to-human contact for now is the right decision.

 

[FormerHangie]

If you listened to the White House presser the last couple of days they are beginning to soften where they think this is going the numbers just are not showing what the doomers are saying is going to happen. At least not yet anyway. Dr. Birx mentioned two factors. One they are not seeing the growth in the places initially effected and the models are not matching up. She said in order for the 60% number to happen this would have to persist through the fall and into next spring unchecked. The media is over hyping this thing. Even Cuomo is back peddling a little https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-cl...everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy

Not saying this thing isn't bad. Not saying precautions like social distancing and washing your hands aren't good ideas they are. BUT closing the whole economy down was a big EXPENSIVE mistake in my view but it isn't going to be bodies lying in the streets either.

Also a little wonky to me is NY hospitals saying they don't have enough ventilators. I get they don't have enough for the doom they are predicting and maybe they will run out at some point but they have more than enough right now. According to this https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/h...rease/71-b07f3c72-2024-4213-8c79-9d880a60b5f9 there are only 1290 patients in ICU this is as of yesterday. First of all I would almost bet only a portion of them are on vents. Also, Cuomo says they have 4000 ventilators in the state (I realize not all in NYC) but also at the White House presser the other day they said they were getting 4000 more over the last 2 days.

The one video posted yesterday from Elmhurst hospital was saying they didn't have enough then the lady in the video says we are down to our last 5. So you have 5 you aren't even using yet.

Don't get me started on the stimulus either. The only thing that is going to do is increase the national debt and make congress rich. Maybe that is too political.

Apparently the doctors in New York don't thing they have enough ventilators, as they are starting to share them among patients.

You may think the current precautions are too drastic, but I have yet to hear an epidemiologist say that. Most of what I've read is that we need to increase the number of mandatory shelter in place orders.