Piper Arrow flood on the market

brien23

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Brien
The market is full of Piper Arrow PA-28R over 50 listed in trade-a-plane. Since the change in the commercial requirements the Arrow has flat lined in price. Is it just the flight schools dumping them or what, why did so many show up for sale now.
 
Certainly a retractable is much more costly to insure ... and to repair. It would make sense for a school to fly the cheaper planes. Plus they aren't particularly fast.
Maybe time to buy one, if that's your sort of bird.
 
Only 45 on Controller, a number of those are out of the US.
 
All of the flight schools around here are dumping or have dumped their Arrows for G1000 172s.

The flight school I did my PPL at had a beautiful Arrow...it was actually the owners own personal plane. I was really shocked when he sold it because he spent so much money overhauling the entire plane.
 
All of the flight schools around here are dumping or have dumped their Arrows for G1000 172s.

The flight school I did my PPL at had a beautiful Arrow...it was actually the owners own personal plane. I was really shocked when he sold it because he spent so much money overhauling the entire plane.

Sounds like he might be a man who don’t need no weatherman to know which way the winds blowin
 
The recent ERAU wing-off accident in Florida may have rattled the market, too.

As an Arrow owner I'd say it's the commercial change in requirements that is dumping these Arrows on the market. Look at the listings. You'd seldom find that many late year IIIs and IVs on the market. BTW, the turbo inventory was always there, so let's separate those from this topic. If you take them out, the inventory isn't that "flooded".

Here's my predicition: the Arrow will be removed from the Piper new lineup within 2 years if not sooner. It was already a niche offering in terms of production numbers, but this means the end of the Arrow production imo. It was a good run.

It certainly doesn't escape me that this will present an issue since I was hoping the flight schools would provide a buffer market for a cosmetic-challenged but mx-sound Arrow. I'm glad I bought low, so I'm not too worried about the resale hit. Those who bought at 75K though...ruh roh.
 
As an Arrow owner I'd say it's the commercial change in requirements that is dumping these Arrows on the market. Look at the listings. You'd seldom find that many late year IIIs and IVs on the market. BTW, the turbo inventory was always there, so let's separate those from this topic. If you take them out, the inventory isn't that "flooded".

Here's my predicition: the Arrow will be removed from the Piper new lineup within 2 years if not sooner. It was already a niche offering in terms of production numbers, but this means the end of the Arrow production imo. It was a good run.

It certainly doesn't escape me that this will present an issue since I was hoping the flight schools would provide a buffer market for a cosmetic-challenged but mx-sound Arrow. I'm glad I bought low, so I'm not too worried about the resale hit. Those who bought at 75K though...ruh roh.
Why do you think production is going to end?

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Arrow prices have never been that high. I remember 10 years ago looking at them and they were cheaper than Archers back then too.
 
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Why do you think production is going to end?

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No more demand, and I agree with that. Piper's main clientele for the Arrow was flight schools needing complex aircraft for commercial and CFI training. With the change in rules, the schools won't need those. There isn't enough demand without the flight schools to justify the cost of production. The Arrow has never been a real competitor to Cirrus or Mooney as a traveling aircraft.
 
Why do you think production is going to end?

Lack of demand.

I toured the Piper factory in Vero beach about 1.5 years ago and even at that time Piper’s primary focus was on Archers, Seminoles, and the PA46 line. I don’t think it is a stretch to believe that this will be the end of the road for the Arrow.
 
Why do you think production is going to end?

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Folks have already hit the highlights on why I think the Arrow prodution run is toast. The airplane is to the flight training market what the semionle is in the ME training market: An incredibly affordable and modular-built low parts count airplane, with an emphasis for low fuel burn and affordable mx. Its not a competitive runner in the private personal traveler market, though as an owner myself I picked it for that very ease of mx. And it delivered very well. If they were available in the numbers arrows are in the personal market, Id be glad to own a seminole under the same auspices.

In the end, the Arrow effectively lost the training mission with the sunsetting of the complex requirement. The turbo arrow should be able to hold its historical value, as it fills a different niche.
 
Instead of dropping them from the production line, maybe Piper will finally have the incentive to modify it with some more horsepower.
 
I think there is a perception that retractable insurance is overly expensive... my first airplane is an Arrow 2. I bought it with a meager 70h in my log book, no complex time. $1200/yr and 15h dual before I got to fly it myself.
Maintenance is cheap, my annual was $1700, no need to mention wide availability of parts, etc..
I don’t know, it works for me, my wife and the German Shepherd as good transportation. A friend of mine likened it to a Datsun, and I kinda agree.
 
If I'm not mistaken isn't the 10 hour complex still required? Only thing that changed is the hour or so for the check ride. So not seeing how that changes the market all that much for schools. But that's me..

Or does the technically advanced 172 with a g1000 completely cover that aspect?

Even then the cost would still swing to an older arrow...no?

Now insurance..whoa...I got quoted $2800 for a bonanza 2 months ago. That's a shock coming from my Cherokee at $427. So...ill stick with my Cherokee. Haha Now, I have no complex time in the books but im a 400 hour PP with Instrument. Still shocked!
 
Instead of dropping them from the production line, maybe Piper will finally have the incentive to modify it with some more horsepower.

Sigh...yep, the dream.
 
If I'm not mistaken isn't the 10 hour complex still required? Only thing that changed is the hour or so for the check ride. So not seeing how that changes the market all that much for schools. But that's me..

Or does the technically advanced 172 with a g1000 completely cover that aspect?

Even then the cost would still swing to an older arrow...no?

My understanding is the 10 hour complex can be completed in a TAA (Technologically Advanced Aircraft) such as the 172 with G1000. As to your second question, there is no need to have a complex aircraft for that small amount of training when you already have a fleet of TAA for basic training anyway.

I doubt you will see Piper invest anything in the Arrow to make it more competitive for private buyers. There isn't that huge of a market in the first place, and the airframe doesn't have that much more potential. I doubt you could get it to the performance of Cirrus or Mooney easily, and you wouldn't see enough to justify the certification of it.
 
If you want more power, then get the Archer....

I thought that was the next step plane.

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If you want more power, then get the Archer....

I thought that was the next step plane.

I just always wanted them to fold the legs on the Dakota. I think that would have been a pretty ideal airplane.
 
Instead of dropping them from the production line, maybe Piper will finally have the incentive to modify it with some more horsepower.

Nope. The time to have done that was when the Comanche drowned. Piper made a specific move to keep the Arrow power handicapped and narrow cabin'd in order to not poach sales from their darling Piper Lance, gambling it would compete with Beech Debonair or Cessna's 182RG product. Oops.

That fight got lost a long time ago. To be fair to Piper, the Arrow was in fact successful in later life in meeting profitability (it was much more profitable than the Comanche ever was) via the flight training market niche. But the hamstringing it encountered from the outset by not giving it the 45 inch cabin of the comanche and/or not retracting the Dakota, sealed the deal for the line. I still don't consider a Lance anywhere near a suitable substitute product for a Comanche. A 250HP Arrow would be a closer substitute, cheaper as hell to mx that's for sure.

The airplane gets a bad rep about speed, but the reality is that the airfoil and cowling was cheaply put together. But that too was a known purposeful decision, not a design mystery. Overlapped skins, and protruded rivets were all cost-conscious labor decisions. Aftermarket modifications have been made to a stock Arrow where the rivets are smoothed with paste and the tanks are faired, and it makes M20F numbers, and you don't have to sit on your @ass and eat the panel like Moooney requires you to. These things are just not that high performance; nominal fairing streamlining goes a longer way than over the top over factory labor in overly complicated metal work at the expense of cabin volumetrics to attain the same end. They just chose not to pursue it because they didn't have to for the training market. With it they killed its competitiveness in the personal travel market. It is what it is.

Fixed gear Piper owners also don't help with their fanaticism over the Archer and Dakota, and overestimation of the cost to maintain the Arrow gear. Projection that you can easily spot when they don't speak ill of the Lance and Seneca, not understanding it is the same system and the same expense structure (i.e. cheap to mx). But say one bad thing about their siamese mag on the Dakota and hoo boy, watch the sparks fly. I've got a warmer reception at the Mooney board as an Arrow owner than I ever did on that account by the zealots on the Piper board. LOL With friends like these....:D

I'm mulling over getting rid of it these days, but I've grown spoiled by how damn cheap it is to maintain compared to the upgrade candidates, for the improvements I got from the warrior. Mechanical flaps, no bladders NOR wet wings, and a Lyco-banger up front. Just a cheapskate's dream. I can tell you without a doubt, that if this thing had 100 lbs more useful and got closer to 150KTAS (aka had a six banger), we'd keep it. For all my complaints about it, it has done my mission well.

I just always wanted them to fold the legs on the Dakota. I think that would have been a pretty ideal airplane.

Of course it was, it was a complete fumble on the part of Piper. And you'll find a lot of people share that opinion of other decisions related to the move to the Vero Beach line of products and away from Lock Heaven's offerings. For me the dream died when primary non-commercial was snuffed by the FAA. I was ready to go and invest in a Turbo or NA Arrow III airframe and make it my forever airplane by bolting an injected 540 on it.
 
Arrow prices have never been that high. I remember 10 years ago looking at them and they were cheaper than Archers back then too.
Insurance requirements/premiums. And UL.
 
What does a 200hp arrow II cruise at?

Mine does 130-135 on 9gph between 6 and 10k, depending on how close to gross weight you are (as with any other airplane). That's 65% peakish or so, since I don't have engine monitor (it's a Lyco after all :D). I don't run at 75%, but when I've done it for giggles I get 136-140KTAS on 10gph, again depending on the same weight criteria above. 75% at 8000 and full RPM (I got mine dialed a smidge below 2700) I got 142KTAS on 12 ROP, but that was solo. If I had the 72gal useful tanks I'd be inclined to burn the extra gallon for 3 or so knots. But the -II is short legged, so 9gph presents the best value of endurance and block times compromise for me.

I have flap gap and aileron seals, plus flap hinge seals, but my paint is not in great shape and the step cover material is not smooth, so I give up some knots on that condition.
 
I flight planned for 135 knots on my Hershey Bar 68 with a new scimitar prop and flap gap seals and speed wing tips...at 6500 to 8500 it would true out at 140 ish without any problem at 9.5 gallons an hour...looking for an Arrow right now as mine was destroyed a month ago...from what I have seen prices really have not come down..
 
I flight planned for 135 knots on my Hershey Bar 68 with a new scimitar prop and flap gap seals and speed wing tips...at 6500 to 8500 it would true out at 140 ish without any problem at 9.5 gallons an hour...looking for an Arrow right now as mine was destroyed a month ago...from what I have seen prices really have not come down..

The flight schools have just not gotten the memo, but they will. Also remember what's mostly coming on the market are the III and IVs that the flight schools have traditionally hogged, so they're a bit proud of their airplanes. The -IIs have always been there, as have been the turbos. So if you're looking for a II you should be able to snag a discount at some point. That said, the credit environment right now is forthy, so the HELOC millionaires are out in full force so they screw the market up. If you can wait til next year, the next recession will take care of the baby seal crowd. If you're looking for a pre-72 midget seat Arrow, you should be able to snag hella discount right now, especially as IIIs and IVs enter the market.

I'm currently debating whether to unload my II, but I can't get myself to pull the trigger on the conti 520 powered airplanes I've been looking at. Not to derail the thread, but over on the $170/hr twin thread I'd been musing pipe dreams of owning two Lycos as the alternative; that's how visceral my irrational fear of breaking ground behind conti jugs is. *spits profusely*

Took the gopro on the demo flight, this was on initial climbout:
Cougar.gif
:D:D
 
If I'm not mistaken isn't the 10 hour complex still required? Only thing that changed is the hour or so for the check ride. So not seeing how that changes the market all that much for schools. But that's me..

Or does the technically advanced 172 with a g1000 completely cover that aspect?

Even then the cost would still swing to an older arrow...no?

Now insurance..whoa...I got quoted $2800 for a bonanza 2 months ago. That's a shock coming from my Cherokee at $427. So...ill stick with my Cherokee. Haha Now, I have no complex time in the books but im a 400 hour PP with Instrument. Still shocked!

No the 10 hours complex can be replaced with a TAA aircraft like a G1000 172
 
Instead of dropping them from the production line, maybe Piper will finally have the incentive to modify it with some more horsepower.
It ain't a Mooney, and it ain't a Bonanza, it ain't a Cirrus and it sure as shinola ain't no Lancair or Glassair and no amount of horsepower is ever going to change that.
 
It ain't a Mooney, and it ain't a Bonanza, it ain't a Cirrus and it sure as shinola ain't no Lancair or Glassair and no amount of horsepower is ever going to change that.

Lol u mad bro? Ill take one over all the ones you mentioned if it had an io540.
 
Ill take one over all the ones you mentioned if it had an io540.
If you don't mind tandem seating, I got yer 300-hp Arrow right here (ENAER PA-28R-300/T-35 Pillan) ...

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 9.52.01 PM.png

Piper's licensee in Argentina cobbled up an Arrow with a sliding canopy and 260 hp IO-540 as another proposed military trainer. There were no takers, and the prototype was rebuilt into a conventional civilian Arrow.

Screen Shot 2018-09-30 at 9.58.11 PM.png
 
Lol u mad bro? Ill take one over all the ones you mentioned if it had an io540.
Not mad at all. Just always felt that most of the piper Indian models under performed for what they were. I don't really see what a IO540 would for an Arrow that it couldn't do better in a Comanche. Shrug.
 
Not mad at all. Just always felt that most of the piper Indian models under performed for what they were. I don't really see what a IO540 would for an Arrow that it couldn't do better in a Comanche. Shrug.

You missed my point. Of course the comanche is a better airframe. But its old and much more cantankerous to maintain nowadays, which makes it more expensive to own just to say I can save 10 minutes on a 400nm trip on the same engine. My point was 250hp will get a retract dakota airframe close enough to the bonanza/comanche/182rg/potato baseline while taking advantage of the cheaper mx endemic to the pa28 line. That's all.

Based on the fact people don't have anywhere near the aspersion for the Dakota as they do the arrow, when a dakota cabin has all the same misgivings of the arrow, tells me you put the right engine on the thing and it sells. But like I said, it will never happen, so the airplane will be relegated to flying club types and some outlier owners going forward. I have no illusions; this move will depress my ability to unload the thing, thankfully I bought low enough not to wreck my life.
 
If you don't mind tandem seating, I got yer 300-hp Arrow right here (ENAER PA-28R-300/T-35 Pillan) ...

View attachment 67704

Piper's licensee in Argentina cobbled up an Arrow with a sliding canopy and 260 hp IO-540 as another proposed military trainer. There were no takers, and the prototype was rebuilt into a conventional civilian Arrow.

View attachment 67705

So no production run then? Id love to own one, but not if its a one off.
 
OK, so if you don't like the arrows. Then what are you gonna buy if you can't afford bonanza money, and you want to go faster than a 172 what are you going to get? There's the cardinal RG. But it has its own issues. I mean if I could fit in the Mooney I have a Mooney but I can't fit in a Mooney. And you still have retract insurance cost. I've looked at all of this before and ended up with an Arrow. The options are limited. If I want a thousand pounds useful load and to go signicantly faster, what other than a bonanza or some really old Comanche or twin is going to do that? Well those options carry a significantly higher price tag. If they didn't, I'd already have one of them.
 
Plenty around here tell you to buy a Tiger...but most give up a 100 pounds of useful load less...The 28R does nothing class leading but does everything well..and is forgiving and my mechanics know the airframe
 
...

I'm mulling over getting rid of it these days, but I've grown spoiled by how damn cheap it is to maintain compared to the upgrade candidates, for the improvements I got from the warrior. ...

The 9K hr, near (or above) six digit asking price Arrows needing an overhaul will probably just sit on the market.

Rationally though the points you bring up make it a good candidate platform for a first time owner.
 
Cirrus SR20 G1.
Or for a bit more SR22 G1.

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