Underpriced planes...

You are confusing price sensitivity to efficiency. Again, subtly different. It's simply an example. Maybe I wanted that specific book, maybe I would have gone up in 3 dollar increments. The point wasn't that there was more elasticity in the price, the point was that a willing buyer found a willing seller, at an unencumbered medium.

In this example only, you and I would agree that the buyer got a worse deal, and the seller got a better deal. Until I got the book, and found that there is an early signature in the flyleaf from Bill Gates. Then, my $90 might be worth several hundred, in which case the 'value' would be reversed.

How many books could the seller sell at the $90 transaction price?

Could you immediately turn around and sell it of the same $90 (less nominal transaction costs)?
 
How many books could the seller sell at the $90 transaction price?

Could you immediately turn around and sell it of the same $90 (less nominal transaction costs)?

You win, it's inefficient. Good bye.
 
No technology to make older airplanes obsolete, but the cost of maintaining them, engine overhauls etc, will make them economically obsolete. At some point it's just not worth putting a lot of money into an old basic spam can.:no:

Outside of corrosion, I can't see what would cost more to maintain a 172 N than a brand spanking new one, in fact it would cost less. You could do an IRAN on a no/light surface corrosion airframe changing out worn rigging, put in a factory new 180hp engine in on STC, put in a full glass panel with a GTN suite, new paint and interior, and come out at less than half the cost of a new G1000 172, and end up with better radios and a plane that will give you the same service at the same cost of operations going forward. There is nothing at all "New" about a new 172.

Granted if you are doing this with the intent to resell, it's a poor decision, but if you want a well equipped nice little plane to last you out your days, why pay more for a new one?:dunno:
 
absolutely. It's also not worth putting money into a golf membership, the residual value at the end of the season is nil. Likewise snow skiing trips, I have yet to be able to sell one after the trip for anything near what we put into it.

Light aircraft are a HOBBY. Not an INVESTMENT. We spend money on them because WE ENJOY IT. Why is this so difficult to understand?

Thank You!!! Holy crap it's amazing exactly how many people do not seem to understand that.:dunno: It seems like they want to make aviation a hobby business, and there's no better way I know of to ruin a perfectly good hobby.
 
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Well, not really. If you recall microecon, all it takes for an efficient market is a willing buyer, a willing seller, and an unencumbered exchange medium. I would start the efficiency lecture by offering to buy one of the student text books. The retail price of the book back then was about $77. So I would offer ten bucks, then 25, then 40, and 50, then $75, and by 90 bucks I always had a willing seller. Ergo - a micro-economic efficient market exists. Now, if we didn't have an unencumbered exchange medium(USD) then it would make it more complex, but all it takes is a willing buyer and seller.

In the aviation world, we are a small market to be sure, but a few posts back we had someone who gave an AOPA article that quantifies trends in the airplane sales, so surely that is large enough to make up some bell shaped curves, and even some histograms related to market sales.

So you're saying that western economics prohibits an efficient market, Ok, I can see that's evident. Every dollar is encumbered by taxes and interest.
 
How many books could the seller sell at the $90 transaction price?

Could you immediately turn around and sell it of the same $90 (less nominal transaction costs)?

You cannot know the variables of the economic calculus performed by the actors in any transaction of which you are not a party. Perhaps the buyer in the scenario given was willing to spend the $90 for the book because he was not willing to spend the 15 minutes it would take to go to the bookstore.

Economic efficiency isn't a hard number or a predictable feature like fuel efficiency because it depends on the subjective nature of marginal utility. It is about getting resources to their best uses.

That said, we can claim that given a free market exchange, such as described in the example, the economy was made more efficient, since everyone involved was made better off, or the transaction would not have happened.

The part that money plays in economic efficiency doesn't really matter in the context of understanding economic efficiency. It would not matter if the example would have described the buyer exchanging 3 wet socks, 20 marbles, and a half eaten meatloaf sandwich for the book. The economic calculus for the buyer and the seller worked out so that all parties are better off (the resources exchanged have found a place of higher utility) and therefore economic efficiency was improved.
 
So you're saying that western economics prohibits an efficient market, Ok, I can see that's evident. Every dollar is encumbered by taxes and interest.

Hmmm. I was going to go a little deeper into how "prohibit" doesn't fit and how encumbrances can be necessary parts of transaction costs and really have no bearing on economic efficiency, but you picked specifically taxes and interest.

Taxes (and the inflationary nature of fiat currency) are encumbrances that reduce economic efficiency since they are a coerced transaction cost by a third party uninterested in resource utility. Theft is not an efficiency mechanism in economics.

Bringing up interest is asking for a theory of credit in economic exchange. Suffice it to say that it can be good and it can be bad.
 
Hmmm. I was going to go a little deeper into how "prohibit" doesn't fit and how encumbrances can be necessary parts of transaction costs and really have no bearing on economic efficiency, but you picked specifically taxes and interest.

Taxes (and the inflationary nature of fiat currency) are encumbrances that reduce economic efficiency since they are a coerced transaction cost by a third party uninterested in resource utility. Theft is not an efficiency mechanism in economics.

Bringing up interest is asking for a theory of credit in economic exchange. Suffice it to say that it can be good and it can be bad.

Interest as it was meant to be, to add to the prosperity of communities and even all of humanity is definitely a positive. The way we use it though, it does none of that. It is the Financial Industry acting as a Mafia taking their cut and is what takes all the cream.
 
No technology to make older airplanes obsolete, but the cost of maintaining them, engine overhauls etc, will make them economically obsolete. At some point it's just not worth putting a lot of money into an old basic spam can.:no:

Not really, compare a U206 to a new 206.

Most operators would rather buy a timed out U206, 550 it and have a better plane.

Also older planes tend to have less mx compared to their more complicated newer brethren.
 
It is a hobby for sure! My point is a 50 year old 172 that needs an overhaul is economically obsolete, unless all the other facets of the airplane are up to date. Sure the old KX170B's will work, and the interior has slip covers on the seats, paint is faded to the point of the original color being a guess, and now spending $15-20K on an engine kills it. :rolleyes:
I understand we can take a 56 model Cessna and put a G500 and a couple GTN 750's, new paint, new interior and it will function just like a new one. But, people buying 40-50 year old Cessnas aren't buying them instead of 5 year old ones, they are buying them instead of 30-40 year old Cessnas. :D

absolutely. It's also not worth putting money into a golf membership, the residual value at the end of the season is nil. Likewise snow skiing trips, I have yet to be able to sell one after the trip for anything near what we put into it.

Light aircraft are a HOBBY. Not an INVESTMENT. We spend money on them because WE ENJOY IT. Why is this so difficult to understand?
 
It is a hobby for sure! My point is a 50 year old 172 that needs an overhaul is economically obsolete, unless all the other facets of the airplane are up to date. Sure the old KX170B's will work, and the interior has slip covers on the seats, paint is faded to the point of the original color being a guess, and now spending $15-20K on an engine kills it. :rolleyes:
I understand we can take a 56 model Cessna and put a G500 and a couple GTN 750's, new paint, new interior and it will function just like a new one. But, people buying 40-50 year old Cessnas aren't buying them instead of 5 year old ones, they are buying them instead of 30-40 year old Cessnas. :D

:confused: Almost all of General Aviation is 'economically obsolete' including your plane. There are only a handful of people who manage to realize an actual economic gain over driving or taking an airline by flying GA.

So, lets just forget about using any 'economic justification' for any aviation decision because it it requires one to get far too comfortable living with several "dangerous attitudes".:lol:;)

The only economic issue in private aviation is 'Can I afford it?'. The reality is, if you find a good clean 1956 airframe you can have a glass panel 172 all nice and refurbed with a new engine for less than a newer one. There is no economic value to GA planes, just a use/enjoyment value. For that a 1956 and a 2014 172 have the same value.
 
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There a lot of airplanes that will continue to be desirable, because they do something others can't do, like 180's, 185's, 206's, 207's, they earn a living. :D Same with Beavers and DC-3's! People spend money on them because that is the cheapest way to get the job done, if it were cheaper to buy new, they would buy new. :D Not that many people in Alaska would want glass panels and leather in a 206 for hauling moose hunters around. :rolleyes:

Not really, compare a U206 to a new 206.

Most operators would rather buy a timed out U206, 550 it and have a better plane.

Also older planes tend to have less mx compared to their more complicated newer brethren.
 
Oh, wait, that might simply produce more drone pilots. :)[/QUOTE]

That is what we need. People looking at a little screen, flying.
 
If we take out the economic values we might as well all fly Gulfstreams! If the value of the aircraft doesn't count, why worry about the value of fuel or maintenance. :D
People have always scrapped airplanes when they become economically obsolete haven't they? See many Jet Stars flying around, how about G-II's, they have hush kits available, but it's cheaper to scrap them and buy something more efficent. The good news about GA is that people can fly with the original equipment plus a few avionics for a long time, but when it comes time to upgrade it maybe cheaper to start over.;)
Your 310 could have been fixed fairly cheaply, but it was cheaper for the insurance company to total it than fix it. That decision was driven by economics.

:confused: Almost all of General Aviation is 'economically obsolete' including your plane. There are only a handful of people who manage to realize an actual economic gain over driving or taking an airline by flying GA.

So, lets just forget about using any 'economic justification' for any aviation decision because it it requires one to get far too comfortable living with several "dangerous attitudes".:lol:;)

The only economic issue in private aviation is 'Can I afford it?'. The reality is, if you find a good clean 1956 airframe you can have a glass panel 172 all nice and refurbed with a new engine for less than a newer one. There is no economic value to GA planes, just a use/enjoyment value. For that a 1956 and a 2014 172 have the same value.
 
The good news about GA is that people can fly with the original equipment plus a few avionics for a long time, but when it comes time to upgrade it maybe cheaper to start over.;)
Your 310 could have been fixed fairly cheaply, but it was cheaper for the insurance company to total it than fix it. That decision was driven by economics.

Your understanding of economics is very weak.

Very few planes can compete with the early Bo on cap-ex, op-ex. It's more than 60 years old, and will keep up with pretty much anything designed in the past decade on an economic basis. Of course, there are faster single engine GA planes, but the cost goes up with the speed as usual.

I stopped replying to Henning on econ or finance. It's a waste of electrons.
 
Consider meeting the soon to cost you ADS-B GPS/WAAS (cant do it with an iPad)...gotta burn the new non leaded fuel that will cost a buck more than current 100LL adjusted for inflation...and you start to see the old planes are done.
 
If we take out the economic values we might as well all fly Gulfstreams! If the value of the aircraft doesn't count, why worry about the value of fuel or maintenance. :D
People have always scrapped airplanes when they become economically obsolete haven't they? See many Jet Stars flying around, how about G-II's, they have hush kits available, but it's cheaper to scrap them and buy something more efficent. The good news about GA is that people can fly with the original equipment plus a few avionics for a long time, but when it comes time to upgrade it maybe cheaper to start over.;)
Your 310 could have been fixed fairly cheaply, but it was cheaper for the insurance company to total it than fix it. That decision was driven by economics.

You are confusing cost with value.
 
Your understanding of economics is very weak.

My understanding of economics is that it is faith based with no direct connection to real value but rather is based on perceived value.
 
My understanding of economics is that it is faith based with no direct connection to real value but rather is based on perceived value.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you cashed the real check from the insurance company for your plane. :yesnod: However, I understand your point about a currency not backed by actual hard assets. It gives many people pause from time to time. Most of them are far right zealots like Ron Paul. That should be worrying you.
 
Long time since I took Econ and Finance classes with Efficient Markets, but, as I remember, there had to be lots of buyers and lots of sellers to be efficient.

I think the airplane market is anything but efficient. Way too few buyers and sellers, too few substitutes, and too much emotion on the parts of buyers and sellers ( in the non-corporate market).

I was the only one who even test flew the plane I bought in the 11 months it was on the market.


What did you buy?
 
You cannot know the variables of the economic calculus performed by the actors in any transaction of which you are not a party. Perhaps the buyer in the scenario given was willing to spend the $90 for the book because he was not willing to spend the 15 minutes it would take to go to the bookstore.

Economic efficiency isn't a hard number or a predictable feature like fuel efficiency because it depends on the subjective nature of marginal utility. It is about getting resources to their best uses.

That said, we can claim that given a free market exchange, such as described in the example, the economy was made more efficient, since everyone involved was made better off, or the transaction would not have happened.

The part that money plays in economic efficiency doesn't really matter in the context of understanding economic efficiency. It would not matter if the example would have described the buyer exchanging 3 wet socks, 20 marbles, and a half eaten meatloaf sandwich for the book. The economic calculus for the buyer and the seller worked out so that all parties are better off (the resources exchanged have found a place of higher utility) and therefore economic efficiency was improved.

You might be operating with a novel definition of efficient market.
 
Your understanding of economics is very weak.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you cashed the real check from the insurance company for your plane. :yesnod: However, I understand your point about a currency not backed by actual hard assets. It gives many people pause from time to time. Most of them are far right zealots like Ron Paul. That should be worrying you.

Nothing really worries me, especially economics. There is a difference between being frustrated and worried. I already know that things will be what they will be and that I will die shortly (in the grander scheme of things) and I will either have contributed or detracted from life in general. As long as I follow my conscience, I know I'm on the right track for contribution. Since karma doesn't demand result, only effort, I'm OK.

Economics only has relevance in regards to love of money, and I have none, just like I have no love for guns. I'll use either as a tool same as I will use a wrench or a screwdriver, to accomplish what I want to accomplish. The problem lies when what you want to accomplish is to make more money. I really could not care less about making money, it's irrelevant, the resultant effect of the use of money is what I'm after. When I need money, money appears, or someone to help me out appears. Most of the time I don't really need money for myself.
 
You might be operating with a novel definition of efficient market.

You do mean economic efficiency, right?

That would be neat (because I could pose a new theory to the economics nerds of the world and get rich beyond imagination on book sales!!!) but alas is not the case. Bang wikipedia for "Economic Efficiency".

Market efficiency is something different.
 
You do mean economic efficiency, right?

That would be neat (because I could pose a new theory to the economics nerds of the world and get rich beyond imagination on book sales!!!) but alas is not the case. Bang wikipedia for "Economic Efficiency".

Market efficiency is something different.


Pretty sure I have been addressing efficient markets in this thread.

No idea why you have been discussing some novel theory in this thread.


Do you really think any textbook transaction is an "efficient market" type of transaction?

Textbook transactions are some of the LEAST efficient transactions we participate in.
 
Pretty sure I have been addressing efficient markets in this thread.

Okay, I didn't gain much traction then. Sort of my point was to redirect from using the term "market", as it can get confused, and go a little more pure economics.

No idea why you have been discussing some novel theory in this thread.

Not novel. I didn't make it up.

How is it an efficient market if you are paying $90 for a book that is $77 at retail?

Here is your question on which I had hoped to gain ground. In this example we have a single supplier and a single consumer. The consumer has found the supplier and a price was found to allow the transaction to take place.

My point here was that you cannot know the variables used in the economic calculus that took place only that in a free market (uh, there is that term) an exchange took place so we know that economic efficiency was improved because all resources involved in the exchange found a higher utility.

That is a completely inefficient market.

So, given the above explanation I would argue that you are wrong and that the market was efficient because economic efficiency was improved. I didn't say this because I know you want to start including external conditions on the example given. The example does not give us any room for this. Perhaps there are no more such books to be had at any store at any price. Maybe that particular book was the one book that docmirror's Father used and holds a great sentimental value to. We have no idea and we cannot just add conditions.

A buyer found a seller, a price was struck, an exchange happened to everyone's benefit. That is efficiency.

But, in the markets I participate in real world, getting someone to pay me $90 for an item worth $77 is a completely inefficient market.

You just described what brokers do for a living. And then...

Do you think overpaying by 15% on a near-commodity item (generic textbook) is an efficient market transaction?

Not enough information to answer your question academically but we can assume that in a free market where this kind of thing happens and everyone is better off, then yes.

It happens every day. People buy their EverReady AAs at Walgreen's because they don't want to travel 2 blocks to Walmart for the 15% savings. Walgreen's sells them at that premium because it fits a "market".

Remember, you cannot know all of the variables in the economic calculus that leads to a transaction that you are not a party to. Stop thinking of economics in terms of dollars and it will make more sense. <little giggle there>

In this example only, you and I would agree that the buyer got a worse deal, and the seller got a better deal.

I would disagree.

Do you really think any textbook transaction is an "efficient market" type of transaction?

Textbook transactions are some of the LEAST efficient transactions we participate in.

I'm at a loss as to the definition you are using in your question here. A textbook transaction is like a toothpaste transaction is like a whistle transaction is like a hamburger transaction is like a ...

Economic goods and services provided by producers and used by consumers all exchanged in a market process whereby people knock off their wants and needs by some subjective scale of their own design.

I don't know how to order transactions from most efficient to least efficient so I have no idea how to answer your question.

(but I can look at markets; for example, a socialist market system is less efficient than a free market system.)

Anyway, I hope we are having fun.
 
Okay, I didn't gain much traction then. Sort of my point was to redirect from using the term "market", as it can get confused, and go a little more pure economics.



Not novel. I didn't make it up.



Here is your question on which I had hoped to gain ground. In this example we have a single supplier and a single consumer. The consumer has found the supplier and a price was found to allow the transaction to take place.

My point here was that you cannot know the variables used in the economic calculus that took place only that in a free market (uh, there is that term) an exchange took place so we know that economic efficiency was improved because all resources involved in the exchange found a higher utility.



So, given the above explanation I would argue that you are wrong and that the market was efficient because economic efficiency was improved. I didn't say this because I know you want to start including external conditions on the example given. The example does not give us any room for this. Perhaps there are no more such books to be had at any store at any price. Maybe that particular book was the one book that docmirror's Father used and holds a great sentimental value to. We have no idea and we cannot just add conditions.

A buyer found a seller, a price was struck, an exchange happened to everyone's benefit. That is efficiency.



You just described what brokers do for a living. And then...



Not enough information to answer your question academically but we can assume that in a free market where this kind of thing happens and everyone is better off, then yes.

It happens every day. People buy their EverReady AAs at Walgreen's because they don't want to travel 2 blocks to Walmart for the 15% savings. Walgreen's sells them at that premium because it fits a "market".

Remember, you cannot know all of the variables in the economic calculus that leads to a transaction that you are not a party to. Stop thinking of economics in terms of dollars and it will make more sense. <little giggle there>



I would disagree.



I'm at a loss as to the definition you are using in your question here. A textbook transaction is like a toothpaste transaction is like a whistle transaction is like a hamburger transaction is like a ...

Economic goods and services provided by producers and used by consumers all exchanged in a market process whereby people knock off their wants and needs by some subjective scale of their own design.

I don't know how to order transactions from most efficient to least efficient so I have no idea how to answer your question.

(but I can look at markets; for example, a socialist market system is less efficient than a free market system.)

Anyway, I hope we are having fun.


Again, you don't seem to understand "efficient markets" and the pricing mechanisms built in. You keep trying to divert the conversation to other discussions on other topics, none of which have to do with the thread topic of efficiently pricing planes and the market being efficient for finding pricing and allowing transactions to take place.


The Textbooks is the PERFECT example of an inefficient market. There is generally 1 local seller of the book (the Campus Bookstore), there are few substitute products (the Professor requires the 5th Edition, so the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th editions of the same book are now worthless.)

Now, there may be used books available that will add efficiency to the Textbook market for some specific class on Tuesdays and Thursdays at 10:am in Room C-345 of the Econ/Business Building. But, still, hardly an efficient market, as there may not be enough used books.

In the example given of the $77 retail book (assumes an adequate supply of books on the shelf in the Campus Bookstore), a classroom full of students not selling the professor a book until $90 shows how inefficient the market is. There should have been kids willing to sell at $78 (assume no sales taxes, etc..), and more kids willing to sell when the premium got to the amount required for a 12 pack of Keystone Light.

And, if the market was really efficient, one kid would have heard from his frat brothers that the prof always buys a book from the kids, and he would have bought 2 books, with the purpose of making a quick buck selling the book to the prof, or, if an ass-kisser, selling it for less than $77.

And, to prove the market is not efficient, and this is where the other poster struggled, the Buyer of the $90 book would likely NOT be able to sell the book at the same $90 immediately, or, likely ever.

I am not sure if you have ever stepped foot on a campus, or, if you have paid for a kid's textbooks, but the terms "efficient market" or "fair value", or anything similar are NEVER uttered in respect to the whole textbook scam/market. There are reasons that guys like Marc Cuban and Jeff Bezos are trying to turn that market upside down, as they know the market is INEFFICIENT and they hope to exploit some of that inefficiency.

Now, if I want an "efficient market", I can place an order for 10,000 bushels of wheat and quickly get a "best price" that is EXACTLY and FAIRLY an indication of the "value" of the wheat. Similarly, I can then immediately turn around and sell the same 10,000 bushels of wheat at a price that is similarly discovered and is current, and fair.


I would argue the "efficiency" of the used airplane market is more similar to the textbook market than the grain market. With sub-markets of 182's, Cherokees, 172's, and a handful of other models may be more efficient than the market for less desirable models.


(A good conversation.)
 
And the "perfect knowledge" fallacy rears its ugly head again... this is a particularly noxious one, because it underpins the free/efficient market theory, which is all but a myth. Even the stock market with all the regulations on disclosures and information available to all market participants is far from that. It does not exist, never has, and never will, if for the simple reason that most participants in most transactions don't care enough to avail themselves of all available knowledge, and are mostly not "behaving rationally" (another one of those myths).
 
Jeez, some of you people really need a rectal exam. Now we're off to the stock market. Un-effing-believable. I rue the day I mentioned efficiency, and then retracted my statement in an effort to move back to valuation of aircraft.

Get over yourselves already.
 
Again, you don't seem to understand "efficient markets" and the pricing mechanisms built in.

:dunno: I think I do but you may be right.

You win, it's inefficient. Good bye.

Oh, I get it. Smart move. :mad2:

You keep trying to divert the conversation to other discussions on other topics, none of which have to do with the thread topic of efficiently pricing planes and the market being efficient for finding pricing and allowing transactions to take place.

:dunno: I don't think I am but you may be right.

The Textbooks is the PERFECT example of an inefficient market. There is generally ...

BOOYAH! RIGHT THERE! <cue Rocky theme song>

Did I call it or what?! That's where you started adding your own external conditions to the example given. Boom :rolleyes2:

And, to prove the market is not efficient, and this is where the other poster struggled, the Buyer of the $90 book would likely NOT be able to sell the book at the same $90 immediately, or, likely ever.

That is Soooooooo not a measure of market efficiency.

I am not sure if you have ever stepped foot on a campus

I have.

There are reasons that guys like Marc Cuban and Jeff Bezos are trying to turn that market upside down, as they know the market is INEFFICIENT and they hope to exploit some of that inefficiency.

Efficiency (or inefficiency) used here is out of context. This is not what is meant in economics when speaking of economic efficiency or market efficiency. This is where our semantics diverge.

Now, if I want an "efficient market", I can place an order for 10,000 bushels of wheat and quickly get a "best price" that is EXACTLY and FAIRLY an indication of the "value" of the wheat. Similarly, I can then immediately turn around and sell the same 10,000 bushels of wheat at a price that is similarly discovered and is current, and fair.

But, you see, price is a free market mechanism that enables the free market to be economically efficient. Price is how resources find the greater utility. That is the economic definition of efficiency. Value is subjective. Fair or fairly are not economic terms.

(A good conversation.)

I am glad you find it so. I truly am.
 
And the "perfect knowledge" fallacy rears ..., because it underpins the free/efficient market theory, which is all but a myth.

No it doesn't. Hayek does an excellent job showing how the price system allows the free market to deal with dispersed and imperfect knowledge.

I rue the day I mentioned efficiency, and then retracted my statement in an effort to move back to valuation of aircraft.

:rofl: Sorry man. I'll shut up now.
 
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