Would you fly in this?

Pbtx0

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Paul
I was planning on just going out and flying around with no particular destination this afternoon (its currently 5PM) but the current radar in my area looks a little iffy. I'm curious to see what others thoughts are about it. I'm located at the black dot due east of Tyler on the attached radar image. The prig chart shows a low pressure passing right over us with the associated squall line. When I look at the radar loop it does appear to be building but mostly building away from my airport. Current condition are VFR with only a 9 knot wind. I contemplated departing and flying around north of the airport but have ultimately decided to wait it out and see how it develops. My concerns are twofold. One, there is some substantial convective activity <20 miles from my airport and I'm a concerned about wind shear and turbulence. Two, I am concerned that while I'm out flying the convective activity may envelope my airport making it impossible to get back in. What are your thoughts? Am I wimping out or does this seem like a sound decision? I know ultimately I have to feel comfortable about flying but I want to see what some more experienced minds think about my reasoning.
 
Looks like ya got a few convective sigmets less than 16nm south of you.
 
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Yeah. Its looking more and more like I made the right call. I think if I had a planned destination due north I might have considered departing as it is clear north of here but having to return back and no absolute need to depart in the first place is keeping me grounded.
 
I would. It was all southeast of you and moving further southeast. Now would I do a cross country thru that? No way.
 
They do appear to be moving away, give it a hr and take a look
 

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These systems move along and as long as you have fuel to hang out, or other airports nearby you can divert to, you aren't at too much risk of getting stranded. Stay in the clear, stay away from clouds with lots of contrast and motion in them, stay away from green skies, note what direction the anvil tops are blowing and pass the bad clouds on the upwind side of where those anvils would form.

Or stay on the ground.
 
I am under the current cold front (just south of you) and I would not take off right now. However, where you are, it should be clear or maybe with some spotty showers but otherwise stable cooler air that is no threat anymore.
Flying south would be stupid but north of the cold front is generally good.
 
A lightning strike will ruin your day...
 
A lightning strike will ruin your day...

Yes it would and the lightning strike data I was looking at was a little sporadic in the area and outside of some of the current radar returns. Ultimately that what kept me on the ground. Its 7 now and the sky is starting to look a little worse here despite the convective activity moving south. I think I made the right call.
 
Yeah. Its looking more and more like I made the right call. I think if I had a planned destination due north I might have considered departing as it is clear north of here but having to return back and no absolute need to depart in the first place is keeping me grounded.

If you're not getting paid to do this - sitting it out on the ground is never the wrong call. Don't stress it, man.
 
you are second guessing the flight and asking in an internet forum to seek justification/encouragement to go. If you feel iffy don't go.
 
you are second guessing the flight and asking in an internet forum to seek justification/encouragement to go. If you feel iffy don't go.

Negative. Reread my post. The decision was already made. I wanted to discuss the weather and my reasoning behind not going.
 
It's always better to be sitting on the ground wishing you were up in the sky than the other way around.;)
 
See if it moves out, however anytime you have to question the wx its probably not the best time to go.
 
What I'd do really doesn't matter unless you're a 10,000-hour ATP/CFI professional pilot. What matters is whether you feel comfortable with it based on your qualifications and experience. If you're not sure, remember the adage about it being better to be down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here. Then sit back and watch the weather from the ground, and see what you think about it. If you feel you could have flown in it safely, next time you see this you can go ahead and fly with confidence.
 
Along the lines of Ron's reply, I might have ventured into that weather under the right circumstances. But that is for a CFII in a Cirrus, with a few thousand hours of practice, and some experience in such weather. BTW, what equipment should be part of that decision, right?
When I was a 100-hour private pilot and still finding things out, I would (and did) stay in the FBO and talked to the guys coming in from it to find out what they had done and why.
Always, "if it don't feel right, don't do it", or
"if you have to ask the question, you likely already know what the answer should be"
 
I don't think that having 10,000 hours and and ATP/CFII, etc. makes you immune to wind shear and turbulence. I would never fly in something I didn't feel comfortable flying in and made that decision yesterday based on that feeling. My intent with this post was to discuss the weather and my reasoning not seek the blessing of other pilots. Just some simple discussion in a discussion board
 
I didn't look at the OP links, because who the **** has the time to look and read everyone's links? :lol:;)

The way I look at it, if you're asking a talk board to make a go-no-go weather call, I think you already have your answer.
 
a CFII in a Cirrus, with a few thousand hours of practice, and some experience in such weather.

Well that's not my ideal demographic :D
 
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Negative. Reread my post. The decision was already made. I wanted to discuss the weather and my reasoning behind not going.

Ok, well, your reasoning was/is not valid, but that is irrelevant. The reality is that systems like that are very safe to fly around especially in the pattern as long as you keep an eye on the clouds and get on the ground when you see an angry one come your way. Or you can often get out of the way. This wasn't a well organized Supercell type of activity so you had good space between angry clouds to hang out in or pass around through while you wait for where you want to go to clear in a few minutes. These storms don't sit in one spot or last very long. The ceilings are typically high enough not to cause a factor.

The reasoning is really you didn't want to go because you weren't sure you would be safe, and that's fine, just don't convince yourself something is unsafe without experiencing it though. Seek out some mentoring in local weather from local business and utility pilots, learn the details so you can make better informed decisions in the future.
 
Ok, well, your reasoning was/is not valid, but that is irrelevant. The reality is that systems like that are very safe to fly around especially in the pattern as long as you keep an eye on the clouds and get on the ground when you see an angry one come your way. Or you can often get out of the way. This wasn't a well organized Supercell type of activity so you had good space between angry clouds to hang out in or pass around through while you wait for where you want to go to clear in a few minutes. These storms don't sit in one spot or last very long. The ceilings are typically high enough not to cause a factor.

Thank you. This is what I was looking for.
 
Thank you. This is what I was looking for.

No worries. You have to be ready to fly around some weather to get any real utility out of a plane in your neck of the woods. As long as you have reasonable ceilings and you aren't seeing black roiling clouds in every quadrant, it's probably flyable during non icing conditions. A little bit of rain is no big deal, slow down for serious turbulence (remember that book Va is at Gross weight and that Va reduces with reduction in weight as well). One thing about flying around weather, you need to carry extra fuel reserves for diversions and loitering time.

The nice thing about TX is all the straight line farm and ranch roads. If it all looks like it's about to go to hell, land on one, try to pick one with no poles, but even those are usually far enough over you'll not hit them. Tons of strips in back yards as well.

See if you can get a ride along with a pipeline pilot on mainline route.
 
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