Totally. After looking at the data nearly every week for 6 months I have yet to see any real outliers in SR22s!
Partly due there not being much variability across the fleet, other than time in service and pre-repack or post-repack.
Totally. After looking at the data nearly every week for 6 months I have yet to see any real outliers in SR22s!
There is lots of variability in the models and there isn't enough of them in the market (low N) in order to create some stability. Archer, Acclaim, Sierra, Debonairs, Musketeers (which I dropped)... They've all had low N and been bumpy.For models with low numbers (Archers, 150s) you are getting huge swings (40% increases), is that because of the long production runs and variability of prices? I would ignore new planes and focus on used prices.
Somewhere recently I ran across a couple for sale in Alaska that were freight dogs. Original radios, trashed paint & interior, and 15k hours. I'm sure that's them. Considering what it would cost to bring them up to something a private owner would want, they're probably overpriced.At those prices, 3 of those Lances on the motivated list must be trashed.
There is lots of variability in the models and there isn't enough of them in the market (low N) in order to create some stability. Archer, Acclaim, Sierra, Debonairs, Musketeers (which I dropped)... They've all had low N and been bumpy.
Unfortunately there's not many ways around it unless I manually curate the listings that are included with each series, which I don't think I should do.
For instance... All it takes to swing the Archer market above is like 3 guys to list a late 70s Archer with a good glass panel and newer SMOH times and you're going to see a huge spike in prices. I'm not really in a position to say that shouldn't be counted. Same for Malibus. I've seen "avg" swings of 100k because 5 people have 80s models for sale and 2 people list a >=2012 model year PA46. That market is so small that 1-2 listings does legitimately swing the aggregate asking prices.
The solution (to me) is that I frankly don't really give hardly any attention to low N series. If I see N less than 15-20 I figure it's going to be an erratic series. Thankfully because of their low prominence in the data they make very little impact on the aggregate market stats at the bottom.
The guy in #1 has dropped over 40% since September.
For a handful of the big N series aircraft (172/182/arrow/PA28/M20/SR22...) I could setup an index benchmark, standardized to only include 1 or 2 model years, if that would be helpful? That would give some standardization for the aircraft series.Any chance of normalizing the list prices? For example factoring in the year, a crude way would be price/year.
Coming into this post 2 years later and seeing how prices just kept on climbing is really depressing.
Fair point, but even you guys can't be pleased with how costs for parts (esp engine components and avionics) have exceeded the climb rate of a Saturn VNot for us who have been owners
Don't worry, as soon as you buy something prices will come back to earth.Coming into this post 2 years later and seeing how prices just kept on climbing is really depressing.
Coming into this post 2 years later and seeing how prices just kept on climbing is really depressing.
EDIT: I'M A CLOWN! I posted data without checking the data. Whoops!Parts and labor? Sure. Airframe resale prices? No, that hasn't been my observational experience since fall of 2023. Certainly not inflation adjusted. But I'm not following all aircraft types, just a small sliver of it (trike FG acro 2-seater EAB).
We have no reliable mechanism for disclosing completed sales (mine wasn't, other than self-disclosing on social media). So the notion that prices "have gone up" in what the statement seeks to imply (completed sales), is facts not in evidence.
Listing prices are just like anything, a wish. Even then, listing prices have flattened to slightly decreased in the types I've been looking at. Inventory is starting to pick up. Some people still living in 2020 list for the moon, don't get bites (or pearl-clutch when one comes in with an under asking offer) and pull the listing. Based on my recent experience as a passive buyer, lots unserious sellers chaffing up the listings, merely trolling the market. I'm not chucking from the cheap seats, I was a seller in 2023 and completed in 14 days, and my available market was way more limited mind you (AOG sale). It's not just airplanes, even housing suffers from that dynamic in present circumstances; my clown neighbor for instance, still there sitting unsold.