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The kctv article says that, but the original kshb article linked did not.

Based on a very incomplete and misleading report. Taken at face value, the report really made it seem like the pilot abandoned ship and left the passengers onboard (who then miraculously survived with minor injuries).

Looks like it still had the PT-6

Whoa, wait a minute, I recognize this plane - it’s been crashed before. This was that souped-up 206 that at one point had a PT6 and Woody Woodpecker was emblazoned on the side. Rolled into trees several years ago when the pilot bumped the parking brake after pulling both the chocks and the GPU...

Exactly. And they were flying into an area that was being perturbed by a cold front as well, so the smaller buildups they were flying over to the south easily could have suddenly turned into bigger ones as they continued north, where the approaching front, low-level moisture, and daytime heating...

I absolutely think that deliberate deactivation of the autopilot is as much a possibility as it being knocked offline or some other defect. Using autopilot in IMC is a well known benefit, but there’s a line drawn when turbulence or icing enter the picture, and it gets fuzzy when it it’s not...

This is a good point, the several-hundred mile track from his departure to a point where the first left deviation happened (near Lawrenceburg) was razor-straight. But from that point, the track shows small wobbles that seem to indicate it was being hand flown at least part of the time.

It was right at the boundary of decent and not great. There were fairly light echoes that initiated right as the aircraft arrived in that area. Echo tops were 5k up to 10k, which encompasses the altitude he was at. But I don’t see it so much as an issue of severity, but more to do with a VMC to...

All the forecasts pointed to interaction with a weak trough arriving around that time, but it did end up being slightly stronger than the original forecasts were calling.

Yeah, it was just the very leading edge of a 200 mile deep MCS that formed along the quasi-stationary front. Go 10 miles in any downwind direction and it would have been CAVU or high clouds at worst. I’m just showing the data that show there was something there and the changing conditions...

According to ADS-B data, “D” is where the top of descent occurred, X is where the loss of control and crash occurred. The echoes are not strong, but it wasn’t CAVU.

They would have just begun to encounter some light (maybe light-mod) precip that was part of but well out ahead of a mesoscale convective system to the southwest. Radar data indicate that the aircraft and the eastward propagation of the precip coincided to arrive almost exactly simultaneously at...

Ok, so even more understated than it seemed at first. You’re a pro, haha. Congrats, very cool to hear the rest of the story. Glad it worked out for you!

Ok, I’m laughing at how this understated post was entirely overlooked. That is hilarious. You’re the OP! How did it work out for you, 18 years down the road?

It’s not about hiring the qualified candidate. It’s more about enlarging the candidate pool and giving opportunity to people who don’t necessarily have the access to reach the traditional pipeline, which is most often determined by a modicum of family wealth. This is seen a lot in youth sports...

Sometimes it’s just a matter of collecting some facts. Maybe it’s weather, maybe it’s a video, etc. It sure cuts through the chaff when there is at least a little evidence. Non-pilots tend to not know where to look (except videos, obviously) and definitely don’t have the ability to exclude so...

Just for the sake of your statement: that doesn’t strike me as armchair quarterbacking, as in “what I would have done” or “what I think they were doing.” In general, I don’t think it’s a bad thing for subject matter experts to lend insight into possible failure modes. God knows there are enough...

The video I saw shows a complete, immediate loss of control following a catastrophic engine failure. It went in at about a 90°bank angle.

Before I made that statement, I had literally pulled up the skew-t, all the AIRMETs, and icing forecasts/freezing levels valid for that time. There was a pretty big inversion along the stationary front and Muncie was still in the warm sector at the time. Gotta look into these things with data...

I read that it had just come out of annual?